I'm going to say 30-35% max.

and online games also have to be at least 30% cheaper than disc version. at this point, I see absolutely no sense in download anything

The fanboy reaction is freaking funny.

All demands where the market heads.

Will a huge FF or GT game be downland able i doubt it, but simplistic casual games could very well all be downloads.

I just wanna chime in THAT THERE ARE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO STILL *CAN'T* PLAY ONLINE!!!! :( (1 among many)

I can honestly say that I would be suprised if I got any *real* broadband by 2020. :(

I prefer discs, and I enjoy video game retailers. I hope this is wrong, and I also believe this is wrong.


However, one benefit would be that the majority of hardware issues have historically been caused at points where the disc meets the machine.

I reckon the guy's almost spot on - although I reckon it'll be nearer 75% rather than 90%.

I bought the digital version of Sins of a Solar Empire cos it ain't on sale in the UK yet, it doesn't bother me that I don't own the disc.

You only have to look at the sucess of Steam on the PC to see there is a significant future for online distribution of games and that people are willing to forgo the disc.

Japan has much better broadband than America. It's definitely possible for that area, if you think America can compare it can't even comprehend japanese broadband speed. http://www.websiteoptimization.com/bw/0711/ this shows broadband stats for 2007. If I recall correctly Japan already had 1 GB per second broadband in 2004 for around 40 dollars a month.

That website should show which countries could and can't make that 90 percent. I think it's definitely possible for some countries to make it.

HAHA. Not going to happen in my country.

I think this guy is basing his idea in steam, I mean yes that is a big step for big named games being put online, but to say 90% is a bit out there, I mean it's big on the PC. The PC has had downloadable games since not long after the internet was created, a friend would have a game you download it from his computer and you played it on yours, still many years later we just now finally took that big step which is steam, this guy really needs to put things into prospective.

90% is a big over estimation, plus if games went to download the size of games need to come down or the speed of the average connection of internet will need to increase a lot, not to mention the countless people that love having the physical game, and it would kill consoles (IE kill the business this guy is in) as they would lose the support of companies like Game Stop that make their money off used games. I could go on about the many flaws in this theory but those alone should logically sink this guys claim.

Not gonna happen. I think it's more like 60% within 30 years. I think digital distribution will become the majority of sales, but I don't think it'll break 90% or destroy retail altogether.

until there is some kind of universal cheap internet that rural areas can get, I seriously doubt this will happen.