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Forums - Sales Discussion - Amazon U.S. February bestsellers and general Amazon-based discussion

xMetroid on 03 February 2018
Jaxyfoo said:
The difference in November was about 800k between the 2 consoles. It would prove my suspicions fully if the Switch was above PS4 then....

I'm not using this argument to attack the Switch. I come from a position of owning one, and having lots of friends who own one. I can see the kind of people who are buying one. Quite a few people I know, I figured were gone from the gaming cycle after going from WIi to phone/tablet gaming. It's nice to see none gamers come back. I hope that doesn't mean a tonne of shovelware party games every month.

No attacks, just a growing feeling that Amazon's predictive powers have been gazumped by the Switch. I simply think Amazon shows about 20% of Nintendo's sales. With PS4/XB1 about 6-8%, and Software maybe a little higher.

Again, November is driven by black friday sales which is mainly bought in stores and not on amazon. 



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PortisheadBiscuit on 03 February 2018
xMetroid said:
Jaxyfoo said:
The difference in November was about 800k between the 2 consoles. It would prove my suspicions fully if the Switch was above PS4 then....

I'm not using this argument to attack the Switch. I come from a position of owning one, and having lots of friends who own one. I can see the kind of people who are buying one. Quite a few people I know, I figured were gone from the gaming cycle after going from WIi to phone/tablet gaming. It's nice to see none gamers come back. I hope that doesn't mean a tonne of shovelware party games every month.

No attacks, just a growing feeling that Amazon's predictive powers have been gazumped by the Switch. I simply think Amazon shows about 20% of Nintendo's sales. With PS4/XB1 about 6-8%, and Software maybe a little higher.

Again, November is driven by black friday sales which is mainly bought in stores and not on amazon. 

This.



zorg1000 on 03 February 2018
SWORDF1SH said:
zorg1000 said:

No, thats not why he got mocked.

He was saying Amazon is useless because Switch can dominate in the rankings but actually be only slightly ahead in actual sales.

Many people tried to explain to him that Amazon has never been a good indicator for actual sales, just for placement.

He got mocked for a few things and some rightly so. But he also got mocked for stating that Switch positioning on Amazon doesn't truly reflect how well it's doing. I think he even though he explained himself quite well.

Its not just what he says but the way he says things.

The way you just described it was perfect, "Switch positioning on Amazon doesn't truly reflect how well it's doing"

If he said that than basically nobody would have an issue but he goes to the extreme saying how its useless.

Its just like when a person on ResetEra who has sales data from one retail chain said his data showed PS4 winning Nov but wouldnt be shocked if Switch won.

PS4 ended up winning by a lot so Quickrick said his data was useless and kept making a big deal about it until he got banned.

Or another example is him constantly saying Switch will fall off a cliff to find out falling off a cliff meant sales remaining flat YoY.

 

He gets mocked because of the way he goes about things.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Pionner on 03 February 2018

$50 GC with XB1X at Gamestop and Amazon. Bestbuy has a free controller and 3 months XBL. Seems MS is trying to combat drop off in sales that was bound to happen.

Wonder if PS4 will be flat or up this month. Maybe even down since no $250 price so far.



Formerly ilovegirls69  :(

Jaxyfoo on 03 February 2018
xMetroid said:
Jaxyfoo said:
The difference in November was about 800k between the 2 consoles. It would prove my suspicions fully if the Switch was above PS4 then....

I'm not using this argument to attack the Switch. I come from a position of owning one, and having lots of friends who own one. I can see the kind of people who are buying one. Quite a few people I know, I figured were gone from the gaming cycle after going from WIi to phone/tablet gaming. It's nice to see none gamers come back. I hope that doesn't mean a tonne of shovelware party games every month.

No attacks, just a growing feeling that Amazon's predictive powers have been gazumped by the Switch. I simply think Amazon shows about 20% of Nintendo's sales. With PS4/XB1 about 6-8%, and Software maybe a little higher.

Again, November is driven by black friday sales which is mainly bought in stores and not on amazon. 

You are having a different argument with my points than I am making.  I remember November clearly, and Amazon in no way showed there would be anything like that gap.  It was purely down to some of the insiders on Resetera that gave the idea that the difference might be so big.

 

A number of times Amazon showed a bigger gap than NPD came up with.  In fairness there were also times where XB and PS4 were light years apart, but close on NPD.  That's not how Amazon really works though.  It has been a case that the sample size has just about managed to get a hugely impressive success rate for NPD winners.

 

All I am saying full stop, is that I believe the Switch has done something to throw off what we (might) see for the year.  Nothing more.  It is only a Suspicion based on watching how the past 10 months have played out.



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Jaxyfoo on 03 February 2018

Man I regret making a prediction on this site. It seems people cannot be objective about the big picture. It doesn't make for good debate or anything but console warring at the end of the day. I even said I hope I'm wrong with this prediction.



newwil7l on 03 February 2018
SWORDF1SH said:
newwil7l said:

Because it is silly. Even in November Switch didn't win Amazon. Both Xbox and PS4 had SKU above both colored Switch.

 

Also they had more SKUs in general.

How does that disprove it? Do you understand what I said?

Every month Switch has led on Amazon it has won NPD. Switch did not win November on Amazon despite this so called un predicted ratio. On top of that November is a largely retail driven month not an online one.



SWORDF1SH on 03 February 2018
newwil7l said:
SWORDF1SH said:

How does that disprove it? Do you understand what I said?

Every month Switch has led on Amazon it has won NPD. Switch did not win November on Amazon despite this so called un predicted ratio. On top of that November is a largely retail driven month not an online one.

Bolded - Not true. Anyway that doesn't matter.

October

Amazon:

PS4 - 71st
NSW - 7th 8th 9th
XB1 - -

NPD:

PS4 - 205k
NSW - 300k
XB1 - 130k

Note: 3 Switch consoles above the PS4 way up the charts. Even if the PS4 was at 10th, it should translate into a 3:1 ratio in favour of the Switch... it's not.

September

Amazon:

PS4 - 47th 65th 68th
NSW - 15th 32nd
XB1 - -

NPD:

PS4 - 305k
NSW - 308k
XB1 - 175k

Note: 2 Switch consoles way ahead of the PS4 and yet the month ended virtually in a tie

August

Amazon:

PS4 - 26th 60th
NSW - 13th 21st
XB1 - 52nd 93rd

NPD:

PS4 - 190k
NSW - 215k
XB1 - 116k

Note: Switch has 2 consoles above PS4 with one PS4 console ranking way down the charts at 60th but only translates into a 25k lead


July

Amazon:

PS4 - 4th 82nd
NSW - 7th 9th
XB1 - 6th 63rd

NPD:

PS4 - 217k
NSW - 222k
XB1 - -

PS4 had one console in the top 10 with one way way down the charts at 82nd. Switch had 2 in the top 10 but still ended in very close.


June

Amazon:

PS4 - 19th 30th 58th 98th
NSW - 22nd 55th
XB1 - -

NPD:

PS4 - 381k
NSW - 215k
XB1 - 153k

Note: Probably well represented this month


May

Amazon:

PS4 - 13th 72nd 92nd
NSW - 12th 17th
XB1 - 

NPD:

PS4 - 187k
NSW - 165k
XB1 - 109k

Note: Could be seen as a Switch win but PS4 takes it.

 

Of course these numbers can be interpreted in different ways but to me Amazon over-represents the Switch. It also seems that the offset of Switch sales leaning towards Amazon increase over the months.




Jaxyfoo on 03 February 2018

Good post Swordfish, exactly what shaped my "hunch." I also believe Amazon was saved a lot last year by Switch being sold out for long periods. I'm not sure that will be the case so often this year if Nintendo have plans and production in place to reach their 20m shipment goal.

Depending on pricing and deals I expect a close fight in the US this year. Outside of the worldwide big picture. I'm thinking a close year anyway of maybe 19m NSW, 18m PS4. Roll on the rest of the year.



PortisheadBiscuit on 03 February 2018
SWORDF1SH said:
newwil7l said:

Every month Switch has led on Amazon it has won NPD. Switch did not win November on Amazon despite this so called un predicted ratio. On top of that November is a largely retail driven month not an online one.

Bolded - Not true. Anyway that doesn't matter.

October

Amazon:

PS4 - 71st
NSW - 7th 8th 9th
XB1 - -

NPD:

PS4 - 205k
NSW - 300k
XB1 - 130k

Note: 3 Switch consoles above the PS4 way up the charts. Even if the PS4 was at 10th, it should translate into a 3:1 ratio in favour of the Switch... it's not.

September

Amazon:

PS4 - 47th 65th 68th
NSW - 15th 32nd
XB1 - -

NPD:

PS4 - 305k
NSW - 308k
XB1 - 175k

Note: 2 Switch consoles way ahead of the PS4 and yet the month ended virtually in a tie

August

Amazon:

PS4 - 26th 60th
NSW - 13th 21st
XB1 - 52nd 93rd

NPD:

PS4 - 190k
NSW - 215k
XB1 - 116k

Note: Switch has 2 consoles above PS4 with one PS4 console ranking way down the charts at 60th but only translates into a 25k lead


July

Amazon:

PS4 - 4th 82nd
NSW - 7th 9th
XB1 - 6th 63rd

NPD:

PS4 - 217k
NSW - 222k
XB1 - -

PS4 had one console in the top 10 with one way way down the charts at 82nd. Switch had 2 in the top 10 but still ended in very close.


June

Amazon:

PS4 - 19th 30th 58th 98th
NSW - 22nd 55th
XB1 - -

NPD:

PS4 - 381k
NSW - 215k
XB1 - 153k

Note: Probably well represented this month


May

Amazon:

PS4 - 13th 72nd 92nd
NSW - 12th 17th
XB1 - 

NPD:

PS4 - 187k
NSW - 165k
XB1 - 109k

Note: Could be seen as a Switch win but PS4 takes it.

 

Of course these numbers can be interpreted in different ways but to me Amazon over-represents the Switch. It also seems that the offset of Switch sales leaning towards Amazon increase over the months.

Interesting pattern to note however, when both Switch skus are above the highest PS4 sku for the month on Amazon, Switch wins NPD (see Aug, Sept, Oct). So I wouldn't say Amazon is totally useless, and can be used as barometer in a way.