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Forums - Sales Discussion - UK:Monster Hunter: World week 1 sales in the UK are far higher any other Monster Hunter release

I LOVE GIGGS on 06 February 2018
DonFerrari said:
I LOVE GIGGS said:

I don't think so. Based on the initial 5 million total shipment, I expect the LT number to be around 8 million. 750k to 1.25m of it to be on Xbox. 

If Xbox is to be 10% of total sales....

Then if it does 750k, PS4 version must do at least 6,75 and if it does 1.25M PS4 must do 11,25.... so your sales bracket is 7.5M to 12.5M total sales, how can that be if you expect LT to be 8M?

Where did I say Xbox share will be 10%? I said it will be closer to 10 than 15%, which could mean anything from 7.5% to 12.5%. I was thinking something around 11-12%.

 

And I was guessing future sales not stating facts. Why does it need to be exact?

 

Anyway, to make everyone happy, my expectation for the total to be ~8 million and Xbox to be ~900k.



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DonFerrari on 06 February 2018
I LOVE GIGGS said:
DonFerrari said:

If Xbox is to be 10% of total sales....

Then if it does 750k, PS4 version must do at least 6,75 and if it does 1.25M PS4 must do 11,25.... so your sales bracket is 7.5M to 12.5M total sales, how can that be if you expect LT to be 8M?

Where did I say Xbox share will be 10%? I said it will be closer to 10 than 15%, which could mean anything from 7.5% to 12.5%. I was thinking something around 11-12%.

 

And I was guessing future sales not stating facts. Why does it need to be exact?

 

Anyway, to make everyone happy, my expectation for the total to be ~8 million and Xbox to be ~900k.

ok them .... let's expend the brackets then.

Largest X1 marketshare on the 8M LT you gave put it at 1M using 12,5%

Lowest X1 marketshare would be 600k at the 12,5%.

Your likely 11-12% put it at  880-960k

So nothing on your numbers really match since you claimed 750k-1.25M on Xbox with near to 10% (or your newer 11-12%)



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

I LOVE GIGGS on 07 February 2018
DonFerrari said:
I LOVE GIGGS said:

Where did I say Xbox share will be 10%? I said it will be closer to 10 than 15%, which could mean anything from 7.5% to 12.5%. I was thinking something around 11-12%.

 

And I was guessing future sales not stating facts. Why does it need to be exact?

 

Anyway, to make everyone happy, my expectation for the total to be ~8 million and Xbox to be ~900k.

ok them .... let's expend the brackets then.

Largest X1 marketshare on the 8M LT you gave put it at 1M using 12,5%

Lowest X1 marketshare would be 600k at the 12,5%.

Your likely 11-12% put it at  880-960k

So nothing on your numbers really match since you claimed 750k-1.25M on Xbox with near to 10% (or your newer 11-12%)

What are we trying to achieve on this specific discussion? I don't understand.  

What's wrong with having a range just in case it sold a little less or a little more than I expected? 

 

He/she asked me about whether I think it will sell 10 million on PS4 and I said no. If you disagree with me thats fine, we can have different opinions/expectation. But I don't understand why you're acting like I lied about facts on purpose. I just added/subtracted a few hundreds to my expected number and without even calculating the percentages. I didn't know that I have to be that precise predicting future sales for a game that didn't have a history on Xbox. I apologize if that offended anyone. 



MinatozakiSana on 07 February 2018

Very much expected since PS4 is a global force.



DonFerrari on 07 February 2018
I LOVE GIGGS said:
DonFerrari said:

ok them .... let's expend the brackets then.

Largest X1 marketshare on the 8M LT you gave put it at 1M using 12,5%

Lowest X1 marketshare would be 600k at the 12,5%.

Your likely 11-12% put it at  880-960k

So nothing on your numbers really match since you claimed 750k-1.25M on Xbox with near to 10% (or your newer 11-12%)

What are we trying to achieve on this specific discussion? I don't understand.  

What's wrong with having a range just in case it sold a little less or a little more than I expected? 

 

He/she asked me about whether I think it will sell 10 million on PS4 and I said no. If you disagree with me thats fine, we can have different opinions/expectation. But I don't understand why you're acting like I lied about facts on purpose. I just added/subtracted a few hundreds to my expected number and without even calculating the percentages. I didn't know that I have to be that precise predicting future sales for a game that didn't have a history on Xbox. I apologize if that offended anyone. 

Nothing wrong with having ranges... the problem is when your ranges (even when being broad) doesn't match between each post in sequence.

I didn't say you lied, I just said your numbers don't match... if you just put you expect around 8M sales with 900k Xbox participation that would just be an expectation (that could prove right or wrong over time, no one can really be sure right now), but when you put your ranges and they are in contradiction with what you really wanted to convey then it causes some confusion.

You don't have to be precise... you could even say the game will sell between 5 and 20M (since it already made 5 and there is little to no chance of it crossing 20M) and that Xbox will be 11% of that total. It was just the line of argumentation that sounded odd.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."