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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Emily Rogers: Lots of Switch Ports For 2018; NSMBU Switch Port Coming?

nemo37 on 25 January 2018
Kai_Mao said:
nemo37 said:

I will say this though, they do have a habit of either seriously underestimating themselves (Switch first year; Wii early days) or over-estimating themselves (Overproducing Gamecube, Wii U's first year expectations, some mid-life 3DS projections). If you remember Nintendo planned to ship 10 million Wii U units from April 2013 - March 2014. They wanted to do this with a combination of NSMBU + Luigi, Monster Hunter Tri, Lego City Undercover, Pikmin 3, Wii Fit U, Wind Waker HD, Super Mario 3D World. Suffice to say none of that helped and the system ended up selling 2.72 million units for the entire year (the November + December launch in 2012 resulted in them moving more units, 3.06 million, than they did in the entire following year). This sort of dramatic momentum shift in a matter of a few months combined with Nintendo's, sometimes, over optimistic assumptions regarding their products and brand is what makes their own targets somewhat unreliable in my view. This dramatic downturn in momentum for Wii U in such a short period of time is also partially why I am skeptical when people come out and say that just because the Switch had a strong first year, the second year would also be strong or stronger. They do not look at cases like Wii U, where things went very sour very quickly (and same could happen here with Switch, particularly since its installbase is still low, and especially if Nintendo doesn't constantly bring their A game). They cannot overestimate themselves again like they did with Wii U.

You do have to remember, though, that there were more issues with the Wii U at the time. There were huge droughts (first and third party), little to no advertisement (even some of the bigger games had not much advertisement), and the new, just-released consoles (the PS4 and Xbone) completely took all the attention from the Wii U in market presence and sales.

There is no doubt that game droughts, lack of ads (bad marketing in general from price to messaging), and console launches had an adverse impact on the Wii U. However, my point is that Nintendo knew before making those predictions (back in April 2013) that they had lost their momentum from 2012, and yet they made a 10 million unit target. It may very well be the case that this 20 million target or even the prospects of maintaining momentum are coming from a Nintendo that is once again overestimating themselves. Overestimating that ports and more niche titles will keep mainstream core audiences interested in the wake of super competitive year by Sony in Japan and in the West. Overestimating the effects of LABO among families.

Last edited by nemo37 - on 25 January 2018

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wombat123 on 25 January 2018
zygote said:

If there are enough 3rd party offerings AND I get Mario Maker, Smash Brothers, and Animal Crossing this year, then I’ll be ok, but I’m hoping for more.

Honestly, a new Animal Crossing, a Smash Bros 4 Deluxe and Mario Maker 2 would be enough.  That's not even asking much: Mario Maker isn't exactly an intensive, big budget project and the hardest part about porting Smash would be making HD assets for the 3DS content.  Whether Animal Crossing gets made or not depends on if Splatoon was given its own dedicated development team or if Nintendo divides their staff on a 'per project' basis.  There's also the wildcard of which producers handled the Labo kits: if Kyogoku produced the variety kit then that makes Animal Crossing in 2018 less likely.



Miyamotoo on 25 January 2018
Soundwave said:

Emily Rogers (now an admin at Reset Era) said this earlier in the month, and she's been generally pretty spot on with her Switch/NX stuff, though this stuff is on these posters, not me:

https://www.resetera.com/threads/is...-time-on-resetera.13513/page-447#post-3104442

I'm going to be brutally honest with you.

Nintendo's strategy with 2018 is to rely on third party stuff + ports of older games.

They believe that's enough to hold them over until 2019 when they bring out the big guns. (Metroid, etc)

Now insiders at Reset-Era are saying a port of New Super Mario Bros. U + New Super Luigi U from the Wii U is also going to be one of the Switch's releases later on. 

https://www.resetera.com/threads/switch-rumor-archive-read-posting-rules-in-op.16589/page-17#post-3702061

This is from Ehoavash from Reset Era who's supposedly reliable:

Heard from a source that bandai namco is indeed making MP4

Smash 4 switch deluxe port is happening this year

And also NSMB U + port is actually a thing that's also happening lol 

Year of ports baby qqq

I don't mind the DKC port, but I think I'll pass on NSMBU ... it's not that it wasn't a good game or anything, just not something I'd want to play again. Surprised Mario Maker for Switch isn't being made a bigger priority. 

Well you could include in OP this from Emily also:

"But there are still more third party titles that will be announced later this year from Square Enix, Ubisoft, and Bandai Namco. Some of these unannounced titles may have been rumored on the internet before -- and some unannounced titles have never been rumored at all. Trust me, there's some good stuff coming from third parties. You will be pleasantly surprised in the third party department"

"Like I said before, this is a good year for third party stuff on Switch. Full of unexpected surprises. Switch might have the best third party support since maybe GameCube".

 

 

Talking about Emily, she knows more about 3rd party stuffs and 1st party ports (shes strongest contact is from Ubisoft), she know less about new 1st party staffs.

Also, if this NSMBU port is true, its kind a bammer, Mario Maker 2 or brand new 2 Mario would be better. Also that guy that said NSMBU and SmashBros 4 are coming had only one guess before that most of leakers also guessed.

 

 

FarleyMcFirefly said: 
If this is true, then that is the dumbest decision they could make since the Wii U era. Nintendo has always gone about the motto "software sells hardware".... Well, the software didn't sell the Wii U, it's not going to sell the Switch. This will kill all momentum that they had perfectly established last year. They to keep momentum. Ports of Wii U games and older 3rd party games won't cut it. The only port that I see moving systems is Smash, but they would need to add content to it. 

The 3rd party support is nice, but so far the only confirmed exclusive is Octopath Traveller (to my knowledge), and while that looks phenomenal, it isn't going to move systems. I feel like they need at least Animal Crossing this year.

Switch and Wii U are very different, Wii U had so many big problems that even good software couldnt move it, Switch compared to Wii U has great concept and good/strong marketing, also don't have any droughts.

We will definitely have some strong IPs this year, like AC, Smash Bros and/or Pokemon.

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 25 January 2018

Harkins1721 on 25 January 2018

Stuff I haven't played. Sounds good to me.



Kai_Mao on 25 January 2018
nemo37 said:
Kai_Mao said:

You do have to remember, though, that there were more issues with the Wii U at the time. There were huge droughts (first and third party), little to no advertisement (even some of the bigger games had not much advertisement), and the new, just-released consoles (the PS4 and Xbone) completely took all the attention from the Wii U in market presence and sales.

There is no doubt that game droughts, lack of ads (bad marketing in general from price to messaging), and console launches had an adverse impact on the Wii U. However, my point is that Nintendo knew before making those predictions (back in April 2013) that they had lost their momentum from 2012, and yet they made a 10 million unit target. It may very well be the case that this 20 million target or even the prospects of maintaining momentum are coming from a Nintendo that is once again overestimating themselves again. Overestimating that ports and more niche titles will keep mainstream core audiences interested in the wake of super competitive year by Sony in Japan and in the West. Overestimating the effects of LABO among families.

Well as of now, we can only speculate. The Wii U had a decent start but completely fell off a cliff not too long after.

Who knows what else is out there for Nintendo as they haven’t announced everything they planned to release for this year yet. You say we might be overestimating Labo, but we could also possibly underestimate it as well. I’m not sure how well it will do but I think there’s something to it when the announcement video has millions of views and the products were able to get up there in the Amazon charts as preorders.

As I said before, the most of the main teams have already moved on to the next project. We’ll just have to see how the other teams will step up.



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vivster on 25 January 2018

SWITCH HAS TOO MANY PORTS!



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wombat123 on 25 January 2018
Miyamotoo said:
FarleyMcFirefly said: 
If this is true, then that is the dumbest decision they could make since the Wii U era. Nintendo has always gone about the motto "software sells hardware".... Well, the software didn't sell the Wii U, it's not going to sell the Switch. This will kill all momentum that they had perfectly established last year. They to keep momentum. Ports of Wii U games and older 3rd party games won't cut it. The only port that I see moving systems is Smash, but they would need to add content to it. 

The 3rd party support is nice, but so far the only confirmed exclusive is Octopath Traveller (to my knowledge), and while that looks phenomenal, it isn't going to move systems. I feel like they need at least Animal Crossing this year.

Switch and Wii U are very different, Wii U had so many big problems that even good software couldnt move it, Switch compared to Wii U has great concept and good/strong marketing, also don't have any droughts.

We will definitely have some strong IPs this year, like AC, Smash Bros and/or Pokemon.

If we don't, core gamers are going to get the pitchforks and torches ready for Labo.  Because if people see no tentpole titles in 2018 and then deduce that Labo needed two development teams to produce its software; two development teams that could have otherwise been making core-focused games, they're going to despise it.



Mbolibombo on 25 January 2018

I'd embrace an improved Smash port, that would be awesome... but NSMB U is just going too far man. Seriously wrong.



Miyamotoo on 25 January 2018
wombat123 said:
Miyamotoo said:

Switch and Wii U are very different, Wii U had so many big problems that even good software couldnt move it, Switch compared to Wii U has great concept and good/strong marketing, also don't have any droughts.

We will definitely have some strong IPs this year, like AC, Smash Bros and/or Pokemon.

If we don't, core gamers are going to get the pitchforks and torches ready for Labo.  Because if people see no tentpole titles in 2018 and then deduce that Labo needed two development teams to produce its software; two development teams that could have otherwise been making core-focused games, they're going to despise it.

Labo don't have anything with development of core games, Labo dont require big teams or big resources. In any case, Nintendo plan with Labo is not to abound core games, its just to also offer more diversity of Switch to market appealing, so we will have hard core and core games, but also kids/parents and casuals games.



zippy on 25 January 2018
Azelover said:

WHAT IS RETRO DOING?????

Are they in development hell? Nintendo is an experienced developer, they know what to do when that happens.. just ditch the game and start over..

FUCK!

 

I've heard rumblings that Retro have been working on Labo. Probably a load of bollocks.... I hope.