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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Prediction: The Switch will become the best selling console yet!

Teeqoz said:
Miyamotoo said:

I don't think many of them did, few millions probably, at thats quite low number compared to 3DS/GBA numbers.

Cant argue to that, but like I wrote Switch can be easily be more popular to people that are not only Nintendo fans.

We could easily have Switch Mini/Pocket, its not hard to imagine that at end Switch Mini/Pocket could have price point of $100-150.

Even if it's only a few (let's say 5) million in overlap, you need every million you can get. The 3DS and GBA just barely crossed half of what the PS2 did. Remove 5 million and it becomes even more unlikely.

The price will drop, but the Switch will ultimately still have a higher minimum price than the GBA and DS reached, and 3DS will reach, simply because all of the aforementioned had weak hardware (for their time), even for a handheld. The Switch on the other hand is pretty powerful for a handheld.  The 3DS was about 10 times as powerful as the DS. The Switch on the other hand is about 100 times as powerful as the 3DS.

Yeah, but again 3DS/GBA were only handhelds that aimed only handheld market, Switch is a hybrid, its also home console in same time, it aims home console and handheld market in same time.

Well yeah, evre new hardware usually have higher price point.



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Miyamotoo said:
Teeqoz said:

Even if it's only a few (let's say 5) million in overlap, you need every million you can get. The 3DS and GBA just barely crossed half of what the PS2 did. Remove 5 million and it becomes even more unlikely.

The price will drop, but the Switch will ultimately still have a higher minimum price than the GBA and DS reached, and 3DS will reach, simply because all of the aforementioned had weak hardware (for their time), even for a handheld. The Switch on the other hand is pretty powerful for a handheld.  The 3DS was about 10 times as powerful as the DS. The Switch on the other hand is about 100 times as powerful as the 3DS.

Yeah, but again 3DS/GBA were only handhelds that aimed only handheld market, Switch is a hybrid, its also home console in same time, it aims home console and handheld market in same time.

Well yeah, evre new hardware usually have higher price point.

You aren't getting it. It's not about all new hardware having higher price points. It's about the Switch having much more expensive hardware for its time than the 3DS for its time.

The Switch's launch price was 299 dollars. The DS' launch price was 149$ (and the Switch will have to outsell the DS for this prediction to be true). Even though both consoles can get pricecuts, the DS will obviously end up lower. Sure, the Switch can be sold for 50 dollars in 15 years, but that doesn't help much, unless Nintendo decide to never replace the Switch (which is probably the most realistic way for the prediction to be true).

We've already adressed Nintendo's combined hardware sales each gen, and even that doesn't cut it for the prediction. You're fooling yourself if you think the Switch will catch a huge part of the PS4's audience. Fifa, NBA and Skyrim might do well enough on the Switch, Fifa could probably do 2-3 million annually eventually, but that's still only a fraction of the multiplat casual audience it'll need for 157 million.



Seems a bit high to me, i think 100 million is a strong possibility though.



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The PS4 has already taken the lionshare of the home console market, so even if just combining home console and handheld numbers made any sense (wich it doesn't as pointed out by pretty much every post in this thread) the Switch wouldn't manage to dominate in the home console market anyway, it is by no means the best option as a home console if you don't care about the Switch's portability.

Last edited by DakonBlackblade - on 23 January 2018

I agree it could become the best selling console but I don't agree with how you arrive at 155+. Switch will sell to people who didn't buy a 3DS or PS4.

Switch @ $100-$150 will do it if Nintendo can keep up on the software and don't shoot themselves in the head. Some non-gaming functionality might be required.

100M+ is a lock imo and I see Switch beating PS4.



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Maybe



Miyamotoo said:
Teeqoz said:

You don't think many of the 23 million GC owners also owned GBAs? And same with Wii U owners?

Even without overlap, the only generation where Nintendo's combined home console and handheld sales exceeded the PS2 was the 7th gen.

Like I said, some people will buy multiple Switches, but with a higher price than previous Nintendo handhelds, it will be fewer.

I don't think many of them did, few millions probably, at thats quite low number compared to 3DS/GBA numbers.

Cant argue to that, but like I wrote Switch can be easily be more popular to people that are not only Nintendo fans.

We could easily have Switch Mini/Pocket, its not hard to imagine that at end Switch Mini/Pocket could have price point of $100-150.

A Nintendo Switch mini at 99$ some day in the future?

That is pure Christmas stocking-stuffer territory right there.

I guess it is feasible if inflation can hold off for a while longer.

...Man that price is already tempting me and I never bought a second DS or 3DS revision.

:P



Teeqoz said:
Miyamotoo said:

Yeah, but again 3DS/GBA were only handhelds that aimed only handheld market, Switch is a hybrid, its also home console in same time, it aims home console and handheld market in same time.

Well yeah, evre new hardware usually have higher price point.

You aren't getting it. It's not about all new hardware having higher price points. It's about the Switch having much more expensive hardware for its time than the 3DS for its time.

The Switch's launch price was 299 dollars. The DS' launch price was 149$ (and the Switch will have to outsell the DS for this prediction to be true). Even though both consoles can get pricecuts, the DS will obviously end up lower. Sure, the Switch can be sold for 50 dollars in 15 years, but that doesn't help much, unless Nintendo decide to never replace the Switch (which is probably the most realistic way for the prediction to be true).

We've already adressed Nintendo's combined hardware sales each gen, and even that doesn't cut it for the prediction. You're fooling yourself if you think the Switch will catch a huge part of the PS4's audience. Fifa, NBA and Skyrim might do well enough on the Switch, Fifa could probably do 2-3 million annually eventually, but that's still only a fraction of the multiplat casual audience it'll need for 157 million.

I get it, but much more expansive than 3DS 6-7 years ago!? 3DS had launch price of $250 (with inflation thats curently around $280) while Switch has only $50 higher price point than 3DS and its selling great with that price point even better compared to 3DS with price cut.

Yeah but you need to take inflation in account also, and fact that Switch is home console in same time, I mean 3DS had $250 launch price. If some product has lower price point that doesnt meant that will have great/better sales, GC had $100 price only around 2-3 year after launch and sold poorly.

I dont fooling no one, fact is that Switch already start cathing with part of hardcore market beacuse full home console AAA games in portable mode, and how time goes and more big 3rd party games are on Switch more hardcore gamers will be on Switch also, actually Switch will be like perfect secondary console for PS4/PC/XB1 owners. Nintendo with Switch will try to catch every part of market, including casuals, Labo for instance is aimed to kids/parents and it will be quite popular.

 

 

trent44 said:
Miyamotoo said:

I don't think many of them did, few millions probably, at thats quite low number compared to 3DS/GBA numbers.

Cant argue to that, but like I wrote Switch can be easily be more popular to people that are not only Nintendo fans.

We could easily have Switch Mini/Pocket, its not hard to imagine that at end Switch Mini/Pocket could have price point of $100-150.

A Nintendo Switch mini at 99$ some day in the future?

That is pure Christmas stocking-stuffer territory right there.

I guess it is feasible if inflation can hold off for a while longer.

...Man that price is already tempting me and I never bought a second DS or 3DS revision.

:P

To be fair $100 is maybe possible at end of Switch Minis life cycle, but $150 definitely is more realistic.



That is indeed a bold prediction! I have no doubt it will do well but i think outselling PS4, PS2 and DS is unlikely. However, there are so many variables. Nintendo has done everything right so far. I think LABO will be huge. It is getting so much media attention right now. Good or bad, it's still a good thing as it keeps it in the spotlight. Price is a consideration, especially in the handheld/multi systems in household aspect. I expect quite a few revisions but the price of whichever model becomes the entry model would have to come down to fully replace the 3DS once it is discontinued. China could be a consideration. Maybe Switch may have a shot if it becomes huge in China. Imo it's too early to make solid predictions but i think, even with everything aligning perfectly the most you could hope for with Switch would be 130m. Nintendo consoles just don't have the legs of Sony consoles, although i will concede there are still many variables and game-changers that could become into play.



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In my opinion the N64 was not just the best console of the 5th gen but, to this day the best console ever created!

Nothing will touch DS and PS2