Prediction: The Switch will become the best selling console yet!

[Teeqoz]

Miyamotoo said:

Teeqoz said:

Even if it's only a few (let's say 5) million in overlap, you need every million you can get. The 3DS and GBA just barely crossed half of what the PS2 did. Remove 5 million and it becomes even more unlikely.

The price will drop, but the Switch will ultimately still have a higher minimum price than the GBA and DS reached, and 3DS will reach, simply because all of the aforementioned had weak hardware (for their time), even for a handheld. The Switch on the other hand is pretty powerful for a handheld.  The 3DS was about 10 times as powerful as the DS. The Switch on the other hand is about 100 times as powerful as the 3DS.

Yeah, but again 3DS/GBA were only handhelds that aimed only handheld market, Switch is a hybrid, its also home console in same time, it aims home console and handheld market in same time.

Well yeah, evre new hardware usually have higher price point.

You aren't getting it. It's not about all new hardware having higher price points. It's about the Switch having much more expensive hardware for its time than the 3DS for its time.

The Switch's launch price was 299 dollars. The DS' launch price was 149$ (and the Switch will have to outsell the DS for this prediction to be true). Even though both consoles can get pricecuts, the DS will obviously end up lower. Sure, the Switch can be sold for 50 dollars in 15 years, but that doesn't help much, unless Nintendo decide to never replace the Switch (which is probably the most realistic way for the prediction to be true).

We've already adressed Nintendo's combined hardware sales each gen, and even that doesn't cut it for the prediction. You're fooling yourself if you think the Switch will catch a huge part of the PS4's audience. Fifa, NBA and Skyrim might do well enough on the Switch, Fifa could probably do 2-3 million annually eventually, but that's still only a fraction of the multiplat casual audience it'll need for 157 million.