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Forums - Sales Discussion - Analyst: Switch may have sold 7m units globally during Oct-Dec, bringing LTD sales at more than 14.6m

The internal means that Nintendo has to track sales can be how many consoles were connected and how many SW codes were generated. Just an assumption. So, it could be that many others have been sold since many people just open their consoles after Christmas.



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Not to continue poking at the poor Vita, but pretty much every European on here has had the same story; you can't buy it anywhere. Here in Holland I haven't seen any store selling anything Vita related items for years now. I bought one about two years ago, and I had to scour the Earth for a second-hand one. Yet VGC had it selling decently in Europe that entire time until fairly recently. With lack of solid, real numbers VGC is an adequately accurate resource for sales, but it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Vita in reality is overtracked by a million or 2.


Anyway. Switch is selling great, that's without question. I wouldn't throw around bold statements such as this outsold that or Switch sold 5m in December though. Let's just wait a few more weeks for Nintendo's shipment numbers. 14.6m like this analyst says seems high, not impossible though, and it would be amazing.

Last edited by S.Peelman - on 21 January 2018

Alkibiádēs said:
quickrick said:

 https://www.resetera.com/threads/switch-sells-10-million-units-ww-in-9-months.10758/

Nintendo Switch Worldwide Sell-Through Surpasses 10 Million Units 
As of December 10th, worldwide life-to-date sell-through for Nintendo Switch, which launched on March 3, 2017, has surpassed 10 million units *.

Nintendo Switch is a home console equipped with a variety of unique features. Users can instantly take it on the go and share the Joy-Con controllers with those around them, enabling them to play whenever, wherever and with whomever they want. Nintendo Switch offers a wider range of playstyle options and places where games can be played, and has been well-received by consumers all around the world.

This December in Japan we are planning to ship more units than ever before so that even more consumers can purchase and enjoy Nintendo Switch.

And? Nintendo made the tweet on the 10th of December, that's the original source. It's literally impossible to track this sell-through data in less than a day. 

Yes thank you. Jesus people are so fast jumping on this train, i don't know how they got WW numbers in a couple of hours while we have to wait 2 weeks for NPD sales lmao. They probably just said it surpassed 10 millions because they were certain of it and wanted to post about it before the end of the holiday season.

 

They also said surpassed, which is really not precise and can be "we are sure that we atleast sold 10 millions switch but its probably 12 millions but we dont have actual numbers"

 

We will learn about this soon but with all the record breaking, i dont see it being under Wii's 1st year sales.



Its clearly talking about shipped figures based on the fact that they are using 7.6 million for end of Sept which was what Nintendo reported.

Oct-Dec sell through

Americas~2.8 million (USA over 2.5m, add ~10% for Canada+Latin America)

Japan-~1.5 million

Others (Europe, Australia, etc) has been right in the middle of Japan & Americas all year so it should easily be over 2 million this quarter.

Global sell through should be roughly ~6.5 million last quarter so shipments of 7 million sounds exactly right.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

tbone51 said:
Dr.Vita said:
And where the hell do you get from that Switch > PS Vita? You only used a freaking speculation from an analyst which seems extremely wrong. Besides that it still wouldn't have outsold PS Vita by that number. This thread is so much bullshit it's unbelievable...

How many vita are sold WW?

We will never know, official figures go AWOL when something is drastically underperforming. Kudos to Nintendo for giving actual Wii U numbers despite it flopping.



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S.Peelman said:

 


 14.6m like this analyst says seems high, not impossible though, and it would be amazing.

No its almost spot on, its shipments not sales hes talking about. This is clear by the fact that he is using 7.6 million for end of Sept which is what Nintendo reported as shipped figures at the end of Sept.

Read my last post to see how 7 million seems about right.

 

Or you can also look at it this way.

NPD

End of Sept-~2.3m

End of Dec-~4.9m

 

Media Create

End of Sept-~1.8m

End of Dec-~3.3m

 

US+Japan

End of Sept-~4.1m

End of Dec-~8.2m

 

Sales doubled in the last quarter so going from 7.6 to 14.6 is highly likely.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

I love these threads.

Brings out the fake profiles and people you hardly see in other areas of the site lol.

I'll wait for the official report to come out soon. Mainly to see how improved VGChartz tracking has become.



 

 

Like other already stated, they talking about shipped numbers, and Nintendo most likely shipped around 14-15m at end of December, we will have confirmation in less than 10 days.



Ryng_Tolu said:
Barkley said:

Then we're back to my original point, Nintendo is under-reporting their figures If it isn't close to 10m as of december 10th. If it could "easily be 10.5m or more" then why on earth wouldn't Nintendo use that figure? It sounds better so use it, that's how PR statements work.

Sony always report to the nearest decimal, even if it's not much higher, 30.2m for example. They could instead put more than 30m in the hopes people think it's higher then it actually is but that'd be pretty unprofessional.

So I'm not going to speculate that the "Surpassed 10m" figure Nintendo gives is actually quite a bit higher because I see zero reason for Nintendo to give a lower figure then they can.

As for the 800k in Japan from 10th December till now, congratulations on making a point that's completely irrelevant when the VGC figures are only for 2 weeks after December 10th, not 5/6.

Alright, i'll just tell you this. In January 2010, Nintendo annunced they sold 3 million Wii in USA in December. Guess when NPD was out how many units they sold?

3.81 million....... Nintendo most of the time underestimate his annuncements, they like to use the word "over", so instead of say "nearly 4m" they said "over 3m".

Using NPD estimate we have this year for Switch, 2017 numbers should be 4.89m. Guess what Nintendo said? They sold over 4.8m. Not almost 4.9m, but over 4.8m.

You can be 100% sure that if they said they sold over 10 million, the real numbers were higher than that. Could be 10.1 million like 10.9 million. Honestly i don't think they were much over that, but 10.5 million are for sure a realistic scenario.

At least with all the dichiarations we have so far, you know, first the 25% of WW sales from Japan, then Nintendo France saying Switch outsold Wii U (and you may believe they were talking about shipments numers, but to me it seem they were really talking about sales), and now we have analyst predicting over 14.6 million WW shipped.

You know............. You can't ignore all those points.

Barkley said:

VGC numbers are based on something, they don't just make shit completely up, they're not as accurate as other sources you've mentioned which is why they adjust to be inline with those sources.

Just because they're not as accurate as NPD doesn't mean they're not an estimate and their numbers are completely baseless.

VGChartz track for USA sales = over 95%
VGChartz track for USA sales = less than 0.5%

Look, i can ask to my cousin who work at Gamestop how many console they sold, and from those numbers trying to estimate all USA sales. They would be more or less as accurate as VGChartz

Barkley said:

Yeah I meant too low for a minimum, also I think the person who said 19m was joking.

14-16m seems about right for me, if anything Vita is overtracked, but not by 4.5m lol

PSVita was at 9.7 million SHIPPED by the end of 2014. Shipped, not sold.

Since that, it only sold something in Japan, and we talk about 2 million for 2015+2016+2017.

In 2015 Vita sold only 370k in USA, and in 2016 numbers are so low we know nothing, we only know the first 2 months Vita was down by like >60% YOY.

Imo, Vita probabily only sold 13 million worldwide. 14 million is a bold estimate, 15 million is a wishful thinking.

i'm not the seeing that scenario for switch, it seems they wanted to announce the 10 million as soon as they could because it's landmark achievement, and a huge PR piece.



Makes the previous story of 15M sold/shipped seem less outrageous.



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