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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware Sales 16 December 2017

quickrick said:
RolStoppable said:

It's a good thing that I already post with the expectation that only observers will read the entirety of my posts.

 i just don't think nintendo has that much appeal

Starting to think you just really like attention at this point, why else would you say such cockamamie things?



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PortisheadBiscuit said:
quickrick said:

 i just don't think nintendo has that much appeal

Starting to think you just really like attention at this point, why else would you say such cockamamie things?

explain why there home consoles don't sell well since N64 while they offer a much better gameplay experience then there handhelds, other then the wii which was driven by motion controls. there home consoles get all the the nintendo ip at a much higher quality. 



quickrick said:
ohmylanta1003 said:

This is rich. Omg I love betting on this site, but this is next level. I can’t wait for this one.

yea this is awesome. at resetera talking about games like talking about islam in a mosque, super strict and sensitive about everything. 

I’m just excited that I’ll be able to have a go at you without moderator interference once you lose.



I bet the Wii U would sell more than 15M LTD by the end of 2015. He bet it would sell less. I lost.

ohmylanta1003 said:
quickrick said:

yea this is awesome. at resetera talking about games like talking about islam in a mosque, super strict and sensitive about everything. 

I’m just excited that I’ll be able to have a go at you without moderator interference once you lose.

chances of switch doing more the 270k are slim in January . odds are way more in my favor :)



curl-6 said:
RolStoppable said:

Devil's advocate is obligated to be intellectually honest.

What major games confirmed for Jan-June 2018 or killer apps confirmed for this year have I missed?

I could’ve sworn Octopath Traveler was to be released in spring, but I must’ve been imagining things.

You’re right, compared to last year 2018 looks a bit dry for the Switch at first glance. Kirby and Yoshi are no Zelda Andy Mario for sure. That said I’ll still buy a Switch regardless. It’s not like last year’s games had suddenly disappeared.



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And the dream of all 1M weeks dies with Sony not making 199 for December.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

RolStoppable said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

I'm aware of this, which is why I suggested a bundle with a pack-in game. Which would technically lower the price of the system. It wouldn't hurt Nintendo too much to include say MK8 which I imagine has the lowest development costs vs say Odyssey, Splatoon, of BoTW 

There are fundamental errors here:

1. There isn't much room for improvement in Europe at this point in time because worldwide supply for Switch has yet to be sorted out. A price cut or bundles in Europe would rise the demand, but Nintendo wouldn't be able to satisfy it because Switch production isn't at a high enough level. This is the same reason why Nintendo didn't offer any Black Friday deals for Switch in 2017.

2. VGC numbers are in the correct ballpark for what Nintendo defines as Others in their financial reports, but VGC is off in the split that they apply to Europe and Rest of the World. VGC uses a 67%/33% split for Switch which falls in line with PS4 and XB1, but it doesn't make sense for Nintendo's console because Switch hasn't been officially available in many countries, and where it has been available, the prices are even worse in relation to the USA and Japan than they are in Europe. If a more realistic split were applied to VGC's numbers throughout the entirety of 2017, Europe wouldn't look like a troublesome region for Nintendo.

There isn't much data we get from GfK, but the weekly software charts for the UK - which is the major European country where Nintendo does proportionally the worst - have had Zelda and Mario Kart consistently in the top 20 even during the blockbuster season of the PS4 and XB1, two consoles that command a clear advantage in installed base over Switch. If old Switch games remain competitive in the software charts, there's only one conclusion that can be drawn from it: The hardware is selling at the very least above a level that could be described as worrisome, so Switch is doing fine all things considered. Not as great as in Japan and the USA, but there are several nuances between great sales and bad sales. And if Switch is doing fine in the UK, it's a given that it's doing fine in France, Germany, Spain and Italy as well.

3. fatslob still doesn't grasp that Switch performing similarly in the year 2017 as the 3DS did in 2011 constitutes a major advantage for Switch. The 3DS needed an €80 price cut to reach an acceptable level of sales while Switch didn't need it. It's also self-explanatory that a price of €330 leaves a lot more price tiers to spur future sales than a price of €170. In other words, after year 1 the 3DS was already at a point where future price cuts weren't going to have much of an impact anymore. When it comes to lifetime sales in Europe, Switch is set up to perform comfortably better than the 3DS.

I think you should send point 2 to trucks for he to adjust the numbers.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

quickrick said:
PortisheadBiscuit said:

Starting to think you just really like attention at this point, why else would you say such cockamamie things?

explain why there home consoles don't sell well since N64 while they offer a much better gameplay experience then there handhelds, other then the wii which was driven by motion controls. there home consoles get all the the nintendo ip at a much higher quality. 

There are several factors that you are missing here as to why their handhelds have done better. 

1. They have better output compared to their stationary consoles. The production values of handhelds has typically grown at a far smaller pace than for stationary consoles; hence when their development teams are fragmented to support both a home console and a handheld, the teams making games for the handhelds can finish and release titles quicker. This has, for the most part, left their handhelds with more titles and fewer droughts compared to the stationary consoles. The only exception to this was Wii, which to my memory had fewer droughts and that was largely because production values from Gamecube to Wii had not increased by much. In addition, third-party support, particularly out of Japan, has always been better on their handhelds compared to their stationary systems. This is a problem that they rectifying with Switch by combining all of their development efforts to primary focus on one platform (and one that also happens to be portable).

 

2. Nintendo is better established in the portable console space. This space has had a core audience of about 75-80 million users (the only exception was the DS/PSP era, where casuals also came on board increasing the audience temporarily but later left for smartphones; but this was also true for home consoles in both the 6th and especially 7th generation), and Nintendo has been big enough here to thwart most competitors. The GB/GBC, DS/DSi, 3DS/New 3DS were able to soundly outsell their competition, and the GBA (much like the Switch now) was pretty much left alone in the market place as the only option for portable core gamers. On the other hand, they have stiff competition in the stationary console space from two other direct competitors. Because they have less third-party support and more first-party droughts (which hurts a system that is first-party driven), their offering is not competitive with their other direct competitors in the stationary console space. Furthermore, with stationary consoles a great deal of people only choose a single system for a whole generation, so it is difficult to justify these people purchasing another stationary console that largely serves the same purpose. On the other hand, a portable system is setup to compliment a stationary console by offering the flexibility to play core games away from the TV (be it somewhere else in the house, during transit, in schools, etc); the vast majority of people that own portable systems (that 75-80 million consistent base that I was speaking about) also own a home console but they can justify owning because they serve different purposes. This same effect is repeating with the Switch, as the vast majority of Switch owners have a PS4 as their primary stationary system (much like many DS owners also owned a Wii/PS3, 3DS owners also owned a PS4, and the majority of GBA owners had a PS2, etc.).

BTW, this effect is not exclusive to the gaming space. Look at Apple, their Macs (particularly the desktops but even to a lesser degree the laptops) have far lower sales than iPhone (much like portable Nintendo gamers owning non-Nintendo stationary systems; most people that own an iPhone own a Windows PC). The opposite is true for a company like Lenovo, which sells more PCs than mobile devices. The sales of one product category does not necessarily dictate the sales of another. Much like with their handhelds, the Switch is offering a portable companion device to the stationary PC, PS4, XONE (much like the 3DS, DS, GBA, and GB were also offering a companion portable system; and unlike the Wii U, Wii, GC, N64, etc. which were attempting to be direct stationary competition).



PS4 domination this gen. It's almost like a PS2 with market share. It will be by the end of this generation.



”Every great dream begins with a dreamer. Always remember, you have within you the strength, the patience, and the passion to reach for the stars to change the world.”

Harriet Tubman.

RolStoppable said:
DonFerrari said:

I think you should send point 2 to trucks for he to adjust the numbers.

That's pointless without any evidence for what the numbers should really be. All I could say is that my educated guess for the split is better than his, but that's not going to make the numbers accurate because nobody knows the real distribution of sales across Europe without access to GfK sales data.

Since 2017 came to an end, there's a chance that some GfK numbers surface in selected countries. If it then turns out that those countries were undertracked by VGC, the split between Europe and Rest of the World is bound to get adjusted in favor of Europe, both going forward and for what has been estimated throughout 2017.

I think they have some access to Gfk, not sure to what extent sure. But maybe even without you having evidence, but doing a good explanation of the split he could revisit some numbers and balance it better.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."