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Forums - Gaming Discussion - "The Nintendo Switch Is Selling Exactly As Fast As Sony's PS4" - Forbes

 

Do you agree with the article?

Yes, Switch will KILL the PS4! 18 12.95%
 
No, PS4 will remain champion! 74 53.24%
 
Hard to tell right now, time will only tell. 47 33.81%
 
Total:139

Great news for Nintendo! Switch is the Wii successor we deserve! It'll be interesting to see how the console/ handheld hybrid dynamic holds up. It'll be nice to see Sony & Nintendo competing (even indirectly) against each other. It benefits us gamers!

I don't think the Switch has a chance to outsell PS4 lifetime, though, none at all.



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Bristow9091 said:
mZuzek said:

Hello

Eww! But seriously, get yourself some more games! :P

Teeqoz said:

Yeah, people seem to forget this alot. Just check VGC's numbers for tie-ratios. While tie-ratios are on an upward trend, the highest tie-ratio yet is still only 11.7, which was the 360. Ofcourse, this doesn't include digital, so maybe I should have adjusted up a bit, I could see the current gen consoles reach attach rates of up to 15 games per console, including digital titles (but not PS+/GWG titles).

I'm definitely someone who forgets that, I mean, a console generation lasts 6+ years, and knowing that people are buying less than two games per year really baffles me lol, I know I have a lot of PS3 games (Over 200) and I'm currently on around 60 PS4 games (Retail only, not digital, same with PS3) and I know that's considered a lot, but I always assumed that the average would be a lot higher than what it currently is, lol.

Dont forget about used games though, somebody can own 100+ games and not contribute at all to the tie ratio.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Sure but the article forgets to mention that the PS4 came out in PAL territories on the 29th of November and on the 19th-23rd of December in SE and in February in Japan. PS4 will trail the Switch during the holidays because the launches aren’t aligned. But I think we can all agree which system will sell the most in the end.



OTBWY said:



Some are confused. This was from Sony themselves.

It is from Sony but it’s not actually the first year. It’s the first 4 quarters and stops at the 30th of September. So, it’s missing 1.5month for NA, 2 months for Europe and 2.5 months for South East Asia.



mZuzek said:
Lawlight said:
Sure but the article forgets to mention that the PS4 came out in PAL territories on the 29th of November and on the 19th-23rd of December in SE and in February in Japan. PS4 will trail the Switch during the holidays because the launches aren’t aligned. But I think we can all agree which system will sell the most in the end.

How the hell does the launch being aligned have anything to do with anything, really? The Switch launched in March of all things, so it shouldn't really make much of a difference, if anything it gives the PS4 the advantage since it had a holiday season much closer to launch.

You don’t see how the product being available for a shorter period has anything to do with sales? And I’d argue that having launch and holidays being separate means having 2 periods where sales peak compared to 1 peak period when the launch is during the holidays.



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mZuzek said:
DonFerrari said:

Nintendo fans on VGS are likely predicting Wii levels on the first 3-4 years and PS2 levels of tail to come with predictions that may end up being over 2:1 what the system will really sell.

It's not completely impossible - right now it is selling on pace with the Wii, and I think there's enough reason to believe Nintendo will support the system for longer instead of dropping it out of nowhere like they did with the Wii (because Nintendo always supports handhelds considerably longer than home consoles, and unlike the Wii, the Switch can play any sort of regular, traditional game without additional accessories, which means they don't need to restrict the kinds of games they want to make, which I think was ultimately the reason why they dropped the Wii so fast). With those things in mind, it's not out of the question that the Switch could sell up to 120m or even more... I just don't see it happening, though.

It may not be impossible but Nintendo didn't support their console at the second half even for Wii. And have no precedence of any other consolemaker being able to have such long tail as Sony did.

This thread will be a hallmark of Nintendo fans overly positive expectations that when not met will accuse others of being negative for saying the sales weren't as high as they expected.

Mar1217 said:
quickrick said:

Dude relax. ps4 is selling much better. the only reason switch is close because it's going through it fully stocked holiday, ps4 in it's first real holiday period sold through around 8 million, it's launch holiday doesn't really count because it sold out 4 months before launch just with preorders.

You can spin it all the way you want but no. The launch still counts as their first Holiday. Just mean that it was Sony's fault to not be able to replenished their new hardware when the demand was so high.

Nope, a launch is a launch and no console before or after had more units available on launch.

zorg1000 said:
quickrick said:

Dude relax. ps4 is selling much better. the only reason switch is close because it's going through it fully stocked holiday, ps4 in it's first real holiday period sold through around 8 million, it's launch holiday doesn't really count because it sold out 4 months before launch just with preorders.

Youre making things up, here are official numbers straight from Sony.

10 million as of Aug 10, 2014

18.5 million as of Jan 4, 2015

So unless PS4 only sold 500k in Aug+Sept+Oct than it didnt sell 8 million during the holidays in 2014.

This site has it at 5.7 million in Nov+Dec but it also has it overtracked by 500k in Aug-Dec.

He is talking about 2013, being around 4M consoles available and sold on Nov+Dec.

PAOerfulone said:
mZuzek said:

It's not completely impossible - right now it is selling on pace with the Wii, and I think there's enough reason to believe Nintendo will support the system for longer instead of dropping it out of nowhere like they did with the Wii (because Nintendo always supports handhelds considerably longer than home consoles, and unlike the Wii, the Switch can play any sort of regular, traditional game without additional accessories, which means they don't need to restrict the kinds of games they want to make, which I think was ultimately the reason why they dropped the Wii so fast). With those things in mind, it's not out of the question that the Switch could sell up to 120m or even more... I just don't see it happening, though.

Plus, the Switch is going to be the one system they're developing for going forward, as opposed to dividing their resources between two. Sometimes between three to four different systems when they were preparing to launch a new handheld and console. (N64 and GBC -> GCN and GBA; GCN and GBA -> Wii and DS; Wii and DS -> Wii U and 3DS)

Now, two systems will be the maximum that they develop for (three if you want to count mobile.) This means they will have more resources at their disposal to help ensure a strong launch for their next system (hopefully, NS2) while quietly closing the door on their old system.
We're seeing that even now with the 3DS and Switch.
Even though the Switch had a phenomenal 1st year, the 3DS still had a pretty decent 6th year between Shadows of Valentia, Samus Returns, Monster Hunter, DQXI, and Pokemon. (I know two of those games are 3rd party, but still.)

Their problem on WiiU gen by they own admission is their lack of experience deving on the HD world much more than the number of systems.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Lawlight said:
OTBWY said:



Some are confused. This was from Sony themselves.

It is from Sony but it’s not actually the first year. It’s the first 4 quarters and stops at the 30th of September. So, it’s missing 1.5month for NA, 2 months for Europe and 2.5 months for South East Asia.

Lol no. It is from almost 1 year after the PS4's launch. Look at the dates.

https://venturebeat.com/2014/11/14/sony-has-shipped-13-5m-ps4s-over-the-last-12-months/

The infographic says it right there: the first year and shipped. Just don't Lawlight.



mZuzek said:
Lawlight said:
Sure but the article forgets to mention that the PS4 came out in PAL territories on the 29th of November and on the 19th-23rd of December in SE and in February in Japan. PS4 will trail the Switch during the holidays because the launches aren’t aligned. But I think we can all agree which system will sell the most in the end.

How the hell does the launch being aligned have anything to do with anything, really? The Switch launched in March of all things, so it shouldn't really make much of a difference, if anything it gives the PS4 the advantage since it had a holiday season much closer to launch.

a holiday close to launch isn't all that effective in pushing an already highly in demand console though, PS4 was sold out all throughout it and Sony couldn't immidiatly increase production/shipments

Nintendo had some months to gauge demand and step up production accordingly

OTBWY said:
Lawlight said:

It is from Sony but it’s not actually the first year. It’s the first 4 quarters and stops at the 30th of September. So, it’s missing 1.5month for NA, 2 months for Europe and 2.5 months for South East Asia.

Lol no. It is from almost 1 year after the PS4's launch. Look at the dates.

https://venturebeat.com/2014/11/14/sony-has-shipped-13-5m-ps4s-over-the-last-12-months/

The infographic says it right there: the first year and shipped. Just don't Lawlight.

but Lawlight is correct here

the 13.5m shipped PS4 number is the same Sony had already announced at their quarterly report for the end of september 2014 (their Q2 FY2014)

as you can see here: (just add up FY13 + FY14 Q1 + Q2)

Last edited by Lafiel - on 12 December 2017

OTBWY said:
Lawlight said:

It is from Sony but it’s not actually the first year. It’s the first 4 quarters and stops at the 30th of September. So, it’s missing 1.5month for NA, 2 months for Europe and 2.5 months for South East Asia.

Lol no. It is from almost 1 year after the PS4's launch. Look at the dates.

https://venturebeat.com/2014/11/14/sony-has-shipped-13-5m-ps4s-over-the-last-12-months/

The infographic says it right there: the first year and shipped. Just don't Lawlight.

Nopes:

https://www.sie.com/en/corporate/data/hardware_sale.html

Official numbers from their financial reports. That number is as of the end of FY2014 Q2. So you can stop arguing now.



OTBWY said:

Lol no. It is from almost 1 year after the PS4's launch. Look at the dates.

https://venturebeat.com/2014/11/14/sony-has-shipped-13-5m-ps4s-over-the-last-12-months/

The infographic says it right there: the first year and shipped. Just don't Lawlight.

The 13.5m figure originates from their quarterly report ending 2014 September 30th. Here's an article discussing it: https://www.gamespot.com/articles/ps4-sales-soar-to-13-5m-yet-sony-losses-continue/1100-6423291/

As it notes at the start: "Sony sold 3.3 million PlayStation 4s worldwide during the three months between July and September, bringing its total unit sales to 13.5 million."

It's just that "The first 10.5 months in the US, and a bit less for EU, and a lot less for Japan" doesn't have much of a ring to it :p