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Forums - Sales - November 2017 NPD Thread! PS4 > XBO > Switch

ironmanDX said:
VideoGameAccountant said:
I find it silly that this thread is up to 72 pages based on speculation. Not to be high and mighty, but we're going back and forth based on information on a commenter that isn't even right.

https://www.resetera.com/threads/mizuho-securities-the-ps4-came-out-top-for-hardware-in-november-2017-usa.10177/page-17#post-1885610

Let's just wait for the release. Then we can play console wars (and yes, Restera is cancer)

Other prediction threads did well to. The gamestop and Adobe threads come to mind...

 

People just want to read what they want the text to say, I suppose.

Yeah, you're probably right. I just find it dumb to dedicate so much time and energy to one post on Restera which doesn't even have the right numbers. But it's the internet I guess.



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Next months thread will be just as big, if as I predict the Switch win's



3sexty said:
Azuren said:

But I have to know who won! You can't get me all riled up and then not finish! Don't tease me!

Lol, the truth though is that no one wins these fandom console wars.  I just ends up in perpetual tooing and froing with essay like replies that go around in circles and circles of denial and repeating over and over. I'll have to give credit to OTBWY, settling it via PM is probably the smart way, - it just makes it a little less exciting for the rest of us who enjoy the dramas :)

Don't be one of those guys, everyone knows that there's always a winner.



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jason1637 said:
Shadow1980 said:

What part of that post was him and which was you? I'm really confused by the lack of quote boxes.

As a matter of fact I do:


As we can see, the list is utterly dominated by the Wii, 360, PS4, & XBO. The only other system to show in the list was the PS2 and PS1, with its 1.3M sold in Nov. 2002 ranking at #5 and it's second-best November being all the way down at #15, with the PS1's best November placing #14. The 360 takes the #2, #4, and #9 positions for 2011, 2010, and 2012, respectively.

Not only does this show how freakishly popular the Wii was, it also shows how important November has become in recent years for PlayStation & Xbox. Prior to 2011, November was a much smaller portion of overall Q4 sales for the two brands. 2011 was when we really started to see aggressive Black Friday promotions, notably the temporary price cuts that are now the norm. While it's hard to say if November's growing importance has come at the expense of December, there's no doubt that November has been on the rise.

Wow November has been really strong this this gen and Switch should be #19 when we get numbers. Not bad for their first November.

You may want to take a closer look at that graph.  #20 is over 900K.  I'm pretty sure that it has been confirmed that the Switch did less than 900K.

zygote said:
SWORDF1SH said:
We need to stop trying to justify the sales because all 3 did great. Some people put unrealistic expectations on Switch sales and some people are treating 900k like it's a poor figure. To put things into perspective, the PS4 did 850k in November after launch with no discount.
We also have to consider this is the Switch's first holiday while the 850k was PS4's second holiday at rrp.
Judging by everything I've seen, there were Switch stock issues but minor stock issues. It would of certainly had an affect on sales but I'm guessing Switch probably still wouldn't hit 1M.
PS4 also had stock issues with the $199 bundle but that was almost certainly managed by Sony.

Also keep in mind too that this is the first months of the Switch, before the word of mouth has really taken off from existing owners, before reasonable market penetration, Japan aside.  Most of the early adopters and Nintendo fans already got their Switch between launch and now.  When PS4 launched, many of those November numbers were coming from that pool of Sony fans and early adopters.  So while they were a lower 850k number, they were all mostly the fans.  Switch has already eaten through those, so these purchases are more word of mouth returns and popularity built since then at full price.  The disparity isn't in waning Switch interest, but that this is Switch's first holiday and the Switch has already been out for 8 months, this is a pattern that we have not seen for any launches other than the 3DS.  It is in an odd middle ground right now from what we have seen in the past.  Being at 900k after having an over 2 mil launch window/month and being sold out in between is actually a really good sign for the first year.  It's all about perspective.

While I agree the Switch numbers are good, your points about the PS4 are flawed.  The Nov we are comparing it to is Nov '14, which was exactly 1 year after launch.  So, the points you make in favor of the Switch for being out for 8 months must go even more in favor of the PS4, since it was out for 12 months at that point.

ThisGuyFooks said:
Boutros said:

It still has some ways to go before beating the November 2014 NPD thread (which holds the record at 1,288 posts) but it's getting there!

Is that when Xbox One won the month?

Yep.  That was the XBO Taking Back US 2.0 Thread, with Dec '13 being the first version.  It saw a big influx of XB fans who had gone silent throughout the year, as the PS4 kept winning NPD, who then went silent, again, the following year when PS4 kept winning, again.  Kinda like how a few came out of the woodwork for Amazon, and this thread, for Nov, but I expect them to go silent once again.

Last edited by thismeintiel - on 11 December 2017

ThisGuyFooks said:
Train wreck said:
Congrats to the PS4. It's pretty scary that a $199 price pretty much wiped stock in the US for those 10 days. There is no possible way that Sony could sustain stock worldwide with a price like that in the short run. They would have to raise production and shipment goals next year by a couple million.

That is why i think they wont be winning december.

With a 199$ deal again, they could easily take the month, but the stock just isn't there to support such deal.

Lets see...maybe they have another huge shipment for this month, but i really don't think so!

These temporal price drops really only end up doing more harm than good.

eg,

At $299, there is a sales baseline. People know they console cost $299and when they see deals like $250 they will jump at it. But the odd $250 deal isn't a hurdle big enough to prevent someone that really wants one from spending the extra $50 to get it.

But once you have a deal an price the console at $199, that baseline gets thrown out of whack. Now you will have lower sales when teh price is restored to the norm than you did before because at this point everyone is waiting for it to drop again.

Don't know who came up with this idea of temporal price drops.

Sony needs to make that $199 pricing come back and more so make it permanent. Or not they will have the worst December they have ever had. Why will anyone buy a PS4 now at $250 even when they know getting it at $199 is just around the corner.

I have been suggesting since last year that this time this year the PS4 will be $199...... I just didn't expect it to be a temporal thing.



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Intrinsic said:
ThisGuyFooks said:

That is why i think they wont be winning december.

With a 199$ deal again, they could easily take the month, but the stock just isn't there to support such deal.

Lets see...maybe they have another huge shipment for this month, but i really don't think so!

These temporal price drops really only end up doing more harm than good.

eg,

At $299, there is a sales baseline. People know they console cost $299and when they see deals like $250 they will jump at it. But the odd $250 deal isn't a hurdle big enough to prevent someone that really wants one from spending the extra $50 to get it.

But once you have a deal an price the console at $199, that baseline gets thrown out of whack. Now you will have lower sales when teh price is restored to the norm than you did before because at this point everyone is waiting for it to drop again.

Don't know who came up with this idea of temporal price drops.

Sony needs to make that $199 pricing come back and more so make it permanent. Or not they will have the worst December they have ever had. Why will anyone buy a PS4 now at $250 even when they know getting it at $199 is just around the corner.

I have been suggesting since last year that this time this year the PS4 will be $199...... I just didn't expect it to be a temporal thing.

They've been doing it all gen.  Doesn't seem to be hurting the PS4's sale too much during the rest of the year.  The only time it hurts is when it's done like MS had been doing it.  Having drastic cuts off and on throughout the year.  That's when people wait for it to go down in price, again, or to see if it drops even further to buy it.  When it's just for the holidays, when EVERYONE is doing discounts, people know its just for the holidays.



thismeintiel said:

They've been doing it all gen.  Doesn't seem to be hurting the PS4's sale too much during the rest of the year.  The only time it hurts is when it's done like MS had been doing it.  Having drastic cuts off and on throughout the year.  That's when people wait for it to go down in price, again, or to see if it drops even further to buy it.  When it's just for the holidays, when EVERYONE is doing discounts, people know its just for the holidays.

good point. you are right.



CGI-Quality said:
tbone51 said:

It was projected for months..... Intill ps4 dropped its price to 199!

Currently projected. And only in forums was an Xbox win expected for November....

NPD Analyst: "Over 600,000 Xbox One X Sold this Year; PS4, Xbox One, Switch Could All Win November"

Very few (if any) analysts said anything otherwise.

shows how much he knows. there was no way switch winning November with out a price drop, not even 249$ switch would touch 199$ PS4, then guy is hyperbolic on switch, thinks it will take 40% market share, guy is really out of wack.



Ka-pi96 said:
thismeintiel said:

You may want to take a closer look at that graph.  #20 is over 900K.  I'm pretty sure that it has been confirmed that the Switch did less than 900K.

Where even is #20 on that graph? I can only see 15 bars.

Only 'special' people can see more than 15 bars



quickrick said:
CGI-Quality said:

Currently projected. And only in forums was an Xbox win expected for November....

NPD Analyst: "Over 600,000 Xbox One X Sold this Year; PS4, Xbox One, Switch Could All Win November"

Very few (if any) analysts said anything otherwise.

shows how much he knows. there was no way switch winning November with out a price drop, not even 249$ switch would touch 199$ PS4, then guy is hyperbolic on switch, thinks it will take 40% market share, guy is really out of wack.

This post makes no sense. We will see who is out of whAck when switch doesnt fall off a cliff next year