Switch can probably reach those 50M easily without any price drop. A price drop is only needed to get beyond that point

xbox will be lucky to hit..50 million next year ...and its been out as long as ps4....you think nintendo will be able to match that? with a fraction of 3rd party exclusives..?

final question....do you own a wii u.....?

They're aiming at 14M year one. Console sales raise in the second and third year. So unless the Switch's popularity suddenly drops severely next year (but currently there's nothing that indicates that), it will sell over 50 million lifetime.

XBO will be happy to reach those 50M. They got a shot now that the ONE X is out, but before it's release, even at current sales it would need to sell steadily until 2020 to get to 50M.

Switch is selling much better than the XBO ever did. In 7 months it sold close to as much as the XBO did in its best year while not even having a holiday season yet and being heavily supply constrained for months after launch (and still is in Japan to this day). It's quite possible that the Switch will overtake the XBO in 2019, or even 2018 if they really are going to ship and sell over 20M consoles that year.

Switch is an inversion of the XBO. Switch doesn't have all the multiplats, but instead has lots of first party titles, and of great quality to boot. Unlike the multiplats which only offer a short boost the first party titles keep on selling and push the baseline up and up and over. Just have a look at Kristof's Sales comparision chart: Switch is largely in front of the XBO, which was just selling better early on due to holiday launch boost and Switch supply problems, but since then the Switch has build up a 3 million lead before even hitting the holiday season.

14 million year one? ...they have 8.5 now...you think sell 6 million by jan or next april?...sure holiday sales are ok..but...historically Jan isn't going to be a strong year neither will feb for console or handhelds..

Do you not look at sales trends at all? Because you honestl seem so clueless.

I don't know where you're getting that number from?

7.63 million by the end of September. It sold almost 800k in November in the US. So worldwide sales should be well over 9 million right now. It will easily sell over 2 million in December, which puts it at 12, maybe 13 million. 14 million by the 3rd of March seems realistic to me.

According the site we are on...I'm seeing 8.2 million by the beginning of November. That's a solid number from this site which does a pretty good job even though it seems slow....so now let see...250k sales worldwide for the first week of November. lets say that it stays that steady with maybe a jump before christmas and during black friday....maybe 300k a week maybe peak 400k.. but 2 million for december....i'm not seeing it. Maybe 2 million to the end of the year...but after that i would expect to see sales drop off a little to maybe around xbox 1 levels.

What are you guys end of year prediction for Wii switch? 12 ...14 million end of year?...
i'm thinking maybe 10 11...and then a drastic decrease after that until a new killer game is release.
it will be interesting to see what Vgchartz hardware sales charts look like a week before xmas...if its even updated by then.

This thread will help you out to look at sales trends and see how quickly sales can upswing approaching the holiday season, 3DS set the best example of this.

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=228581&page=1#

I'm not 100% sure it will reach 14 million sold by March 2018 yet, but around 13 million is pretty possible. We still need to see the Switch's holiday sales numbers of course.

You know its funny...i read that article...and i think you missed the point....that's even mentioned in the article...
You cant compare this to DS...which has many years of games for it already...sure...sales upswing for the holidays are big since...DS has an establish market....Wii Switch has no market or library of games yet. The article you sent me was a bunch of comments about people saying...If "blank-game" is released next year then maybe switch will sell gang busters.

megaman79 said:
If a Kid Icarus Sequel or Donkey Kong Sequel releases next year it could do really well with core gamers.

GuyDuke said:
Yes, once PS4 enters its second holiday period, Switch will definitely trail behind again.
Nintendo will have to work hard in 2018 to send up both enough shipments and enough system-selling software.

Again I will say...it will be interesting to see what happens at the end of December and beginning of January.

I kinda feel like i'm talking to Wii U fans again and i want nintendo to be better then that.