What do you expect? | |||
| NSW will win by a huge margin | 53 | 16.06% | |
| NSW will win by a small margin | 75 | 22.73% | |
| PS4 will win by a small margin | 75 | 22.73% | |
| PS4 will win by a huge margin | 117 | 35.45% | |
| Sorry, no troll XB1 option. :P Oh wait... | 10 | 3.03% | |
| Total: | 330 | ||
| quickrick said: switch year one will be its best, because its releasing all it's big franchises, and because excluding the wii. nintendo home consoles since the 3d era sell there best the first year. |
Lmaoo, wish he was still here. The way Switch has performed this year must be eating him alive
52,945 
I think what PS4's current sales at 102 million is the Switch's max it can reach when it's all said and done. PS4 has another 15+ million or so left in it.
Last edited by Leynos - on 28 November 2019
Soundwave said:
When you're relying on pulling a miracle out of your ass to sustain your hardware sales, yes that doesn't work on command. You can't just snap a finger and make one definitive system selling piece of software. Sony's setup is basic, but it works, they get a constant stream of IP and lots of new IP as well all the time because hundreds of developers make their system their primary platform. Nintendo has never actually more than 4 1/2 years really without a new hardware platform ... the reason GB/DS/3DS could have extended product cycles is because Nintendo was ok with declining sales for those platforms in the later years because they had a secondary console platform that would boost hardware sales, and then a new handheld would do that and vice versa and vice versa. 1996 - N64 1998 - Game Boy Color 2001 - GameCube & GBA 2004 - DS Nov. 2006 - Wii Feb. 2011 - 3DS Nov. 2012 - Wii U Mar. 2017 - Switch The longest time between a hardware platform for Nintendo has been 4 1/2 years in their modern history, so that offsets the effect of either the handheld or console platform declining, because they always had a new console or HH coming to provide a new "fresh boost" as it were fairly regularly. If Switch sales decline like 3DS did in the later half of its product cycle that's not going to be good for Nintendo as Switch is their only hardware line. Investors only care about the fiscal year in question they don't care that much about culminate hardware sales/online pissing matches, there's no magic cookie they get if Switch hits 90 mill versus 100 mill. So it will be interesting how Nintendo handles that because it's kind of unprecedented territory for them. |
it's not a miracle, it's a groundbreaking game, it's different. Nintendo has not one, but several.
You metric is wrong. Very wrong. You mix handheld and stationary console. It's not the case.
Sony's strategy is not that good, it only really works when the other companies go wrong. It only works when it depends on the error of others. When Microsoft and Nintendo had more stable strategies, Sony embittered monstrous losses. This generation was beneficial to Sony because Nintendo went in a bizarre direction with Wiiu, completely abandoned Vita, Microsoft simply spit on its consumers with absurd ideas. If the new generation Microsoft is more consistent, with Switch selling more, the story will be another.The fresh boost is mambo jambo. It's not work in reality. Games move consoles and not the other way around. If your argument were true, Gameboy would not explode in sales with Pokemon. This idea of renewing with console is meaningless and you contradict yourself by presenting the example of Pokemon.
PortisheadBiscuit said:
Lmaoo, wish he was still here. The way Switch has performed this year must be eating him alive |
Each generation has its own rule and particularity. Market analysis has to be done this way. And it is common for people to forget about portable consoles that add up to much of their income. And for now, nintendo is alone in this market.
| Wman1996 said: PS4 will sell at least 120 million. Switch will sell at least 75 million, but more likely get closer to 100 million. I have to give it to the PS4. I really don't see any scenario where the Switch sells more. |
So switch will sell almost the same as 3ds despite its sales trajectory being way superior...
And for a moment I thought this post was from end of 2017
Last edited by 160rmf - on 28 November 2019
We reap what we sow
| Soundwave said: 3DS sold poorly for several years in its down cycle, Nintendo won't allow that again now that they're only a one platform (primarily) company. They had no choice but to ride the 3DS a bit even at decreased yearly shipments because the Wii U was selling even worse. That wasn't a situation they would want to be in. Game Boy was all but dead by 1995, that's the only reason an idea as crazy as the Virtual Boy was allowed to come to market. Pokemon came out of nowhere as a miracle game in Japan in 1996 and gave the Game Boy brand a second lease on life, otherwise they were working on a GB successor (Project: Atlantis) at that time. But you can't rely on pulling a new Pokemon out of your ass, that happens once every 20, maybe 30-40 years. |
Yeah and? This doesn't exactly counter what I pointed out as 3DS still is going to finish up with 8 years and had good support which goes against what you're trying to say.
No GB wasn't dead by 1995 in fact it was doing really well VB was a console not a portable for a start and secondly the GBC which boosted GB numbers didn't arrive until 1998 which is 3 years after your 1995 claim here no company would leave a 3 year gap like that what you've said here is false.
Pokemon was only out in Japan in 1996 the west didn't get it until 1998 this means that the platform was doing fine in the west for around 7 to 9 years before Pokemon this again debunks what you claimed about not going pass 6-7 years and here's a news flash for you Nintendo are always working on their next platform in fact every console manufacturer is even as a new one launches.
They also don't rely on pulling games out their ass like you put it they rely on good quality first party library which every now and then brings up a ground breaking game (Switch already has two in BOTW and SMO) which drives momentum with so far 5 games hitting 10m with number 6 and 7 going to hit 10m shortly and because of the combined userbase all the library can now be focused on one platform.
Last edited by Wyrdness - on 29 November 2019
Even with the Switch's huge sales as of late, I still think the PS4 wins in the end.
PS4: 120-130 million
NSW: 105-120 million
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Wyrdness said:
Yeah and? This doesn't exactly counter what I pointed out as 3DS still is going to finish up with 8 years and had good support which goes against what you're trying to say. No GB wasn't dead by 1995 in fact it was doing really well VB was a console not a portable for a start and secondly the GBC which boosted GB numbers didn't arrive until 1998 which is 3 years after your 1995 claim here no company would leave a 3 year gap like that what you've said here is false. Pokemon was only out in Japan in 1996 the west didn't get it until 1998 this means that the platform was doing fine in the west for around 7 to 9 years before Pokemon this again debunks what you claimed about not going pass 6-7 years and here's a news flash for you Nintendo are always working on their next platform in fact every console manufacturer is even as a new one launches. They also don't rely on pulling games out their ass like you put it they rely on good quality first party library which every now and then brings up a ground breaking game (Switch already has two in BOTW and SMO) which drives momentum with so far 5 games hitting 10m with number 6 and 7 going to hit 10m shortly and because of the combined userbase all the library can now be focused on one platform. |
The Virtual Boy was released because Game Boy sales had slowed badly and the Project: Atlantis that Nintendo was working on to succeed the GB was not going to be ready any time soon (it ate a crap ton of batteries like the Game Gear).
This is why the Virtual Boy got on market. When people say "what the fuck was Nintendo thinking with Virtual Boy" that was what they were thinking ... Yamauchi was unhappy with Game Boy sales declining and pushed for a product line to pick up the slack.
You don't have to give me dates, I remember all that stuff.
SMO and BOTW doing well doesn't help down the road because those games sell so much that there isn't that much of a crowd left, every copy that BOTW sells is one less person to buy a Switch later on for BOTW2 ... because they already own one.
That's kinda the issue, you run dry when you're basically relying on essentially 7 or 8 franchises which already have previously been released on a platform in the first 3 years and have sold millions and millions. BOTW2 is not going to boost Switch sales the same way BOTW1 did because BOTW already brought in most of the audience interested in a Zelda game.
SpokenTruth said:
The last I heard was that his doctor has forbidden friends and family from saying 'Nintendo' or 'Switch' because it might send him over the edge. |
Are you meaning... down a cliff? 
The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing
The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/
Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/
160rmf said:
So switch will sell almost the same as 3ds despite its sales trajectory being way superior... And for a moment I thought this post was from end of 2017 |
100m is not almost the same as 75m
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