I really dont understand why so many people think Switch sales are gonna plummet next year, it seems very much like wishful thinking to me.

It is wishful thinking. I can hate nintendo with a passion and see its going to go up YoY for obvious reasons. I mean unless im Colin... Then maybe not

It is wishful thinking. I can hate nintendo with a passion and see its going to go up YoY for obvious reasons. I mean unless im Colin... Then maybe not

But it already has all its big games!!!!!!

Seriously though, many of them point to 3DS peaking early but i dont think they realize how much the early price cut made people buy one earlier than they originally planned.

There was probably alot of people who were waiting for things like Pokemon or Animal Crossing to get one but the price cut caused them to buy one as an impulse in fall 2011.

I  believe switch will be  a very front loaded product, because of the mobile market. this year is just launched so take into account the wiiu sold the best in it's first year, so combine 3ds and wiiu in it's first year, and you have amazing numbers. then you have nintedo releasing 4 of there biggest franchises in the first year 2 of them the highest rated games of all time, and the third a 94, and then you splatoon which is phenomena. just look at super nes clasiic the thing could probably sell 7 million pretty fast but eventually sells will plummet. 

As for the holidays IDC what amazon says, ps4 will win december, and xbone and the x will take november easily, quote me on this.

A couple things you arent taking into account.

3DS had a massive price cut 5 months after launch, this caused sales to skyrocket in late summer and through the holidays. The price cut didnt really increase the appeal of the system, rather it just made people get one sooner than they had intended.

Wii U really didnt peak in the first year, it was massively overshipped in the launch window which really skews things and caused Nintendo to basically ship next to nothing during the next few quarters in order to get rid of unsold stock.

These scenarios are clearly not the same situation Switch is in so they really cant be compared. Switch didnt need a masive price cut to get people buying one and has suffered supply constraints rather than being massively overshipped.

Switch is selling well simply by being an appealing device with great marketing and a kickass software library.

your not taking into account that this is nintendo next console and handheld, with there best first year launch line up ever. of course its gonna start strong. by next next year if it keeps beating ps4 in npd, then ill be convinced, hell i wanna see how it does  for this for the holidays first. i just believe it too early to tell, especially with out strong the mobile market is.

It’s also too early to tell if the Switch is front loaded. Just because some of their main franchises had recent releases doesn’t mean they don’t have much left out of their arsenal. Let’s see how games like Pokémon, Metroid, and Animal Crossing fare, not to mention Smash Bros. Anything can happen. Zelda could get another game on the Switch, same with Mario. Who knows what new IPs will follow. 

Lol we'll see. As for your "theory" i can clearly see no thought or logic went into that, just purely hope. Forlorn hope. Well, good luck with that. All you are doing is setting yourself up for pure misery. Just out of interest, apart from fanboyism, what makes you think PS4 will "win" December? Again, is it hope, or is it using your noddle in any way whatsoever? I think Amazon provides far more insight into what is going to happen than your mere hopes and dreams do tbh.

Moderated for this and other posts - Miguel

I am taking that into account.

Comparing Switch to 3DS or Wii U makes no sense for these reasons.

Hardware appeal-The concept of a 3D screen or the Wii U gamepad were poor and people didnt like them. The concept of being able to seamlessy go from console to handheld play is desirable.

Marketing/advertising-3DS was long thought to be a DS  revision with 3D as Wii U was thought to be a tablet add on for Wii. On top of that they were both almost exclusively aimed at kids/families on children's networks while Switch is clearly a brand new device that is aimed at all sorts of demographics and ads are all over the place.

Software output-3DS & Wii U both suffered from multiple software droughts throughout their life cycles. 3DS primarily in 2011/2012 and Wii U throughout its entire cycle. This has not and likely will not be an issue for Switch since its their only device going forward.

Price-The combination of those previously listed factors caused 3DS/Wii U to be seen as expensive and not worth the purchase. Switch succeeds in all those areas making it seem like a great value at its current price.