i think nintendo will win it but there is always the risk of GTA 4 and mariokart and wii fit to calculate. if the boost from GTA 4 is big it will become a pain for nintendo to get there first.

 What is this site about? Hmm? Sales?

Yeah.

I meant does it matter which reaches it first. Not does it matter about sales. Besides didn't the Wii already pass the GCN WW sales? ;-p

Was NA the GCN's best market?

 Yes it was by far actually :)

 It matters because this site is about discussing videogame sales... period. This is an interesting topic of discussion about videogame sales.

 And the topic of which passes it first essentially brings up the topic of when the Wii will pass the 360's sales in its largest market. North America is the 360's last stronghold. If the Wii passes it here, it will no longer have a lead anywhere.

I think xbox360 will easily win. I don't think Wii will outsell x360 2:1 when gtaIV is released.

 Problems with that reasoning include:

-ignoring Mario Kart Wii

-ignoring Wii Fit

-ignoring the Wii's much larger average rate of sales

-ignoring GTAIV's status as multiplatform

There are more. Point is, there are quite a few variables, and it's pretty bad to assume that you can guarantee anything based onjust one, when all the other variables argue the other point. Additionally, we've still got seventeen weeks - four months - before the 360 will pass GCN at the current rate of sales. Given that both systems will increase when the aforementioned games are released, it obviously won't take quite that long. However, since the Wii has a higher production rate, and Nintendo is surely working on ensuring enough consoles to be available for Mario Kart, and even more, Wii Fit, we can guarantee that it will surely put up a mighty fight.

 I would estimate that, with these two major apps being released so soon,  Wii will surpass GCN in ten or eleven weeks.

 Meanwhile, I estimate that 360 will do the same in fourteen or fifteen.

 Last stronghold, that sounds so epic.  I heard 360 has a big lead in part of NA, though (Mexico).  Also, let's not forget others others.  Those Asian nations (except for Japan) seem to like the 360 more than the Wii.  So what if the Wii is not out in all of those areas!

wii will pass 360 in june (per Reggie)...i don't believe 360 will pass GCN by june...thus wii will pass GCN first

I'm gonna go with the 360 on this on? With GTAIV coming out this month, its pretty clear who'll pass it first.