It will probably be the Wii, just because it still hasn't reached demand and if its in a store then... it will sell. 360 has just had one setback after another.. although if it truly becomes the "GTA4" system that (and only that) could give the machine enough momentum to pass GCN sales first.

gta4 is not selling 1.3million 360s

Wii is going to be the winner of that race, Xbox is selling slow, GTA4 is multiplataform, Wii has good exclusives.

A price cut can change that thoug

Ok so looking at this from an analytical approach:

Each square lists how long each console will take to pass the mark at a given sales rate (measured in weeks, rounding up obviously). Obviously the first column is the current rate and each subsequent colum represents an increase in sales as stated.

Squares in Red are "Cannot Win", Orange squares are "Likely to Lose", Yellow squares are "Likely to Win" and green squares are "Cannot Lose" (assuming no console exceeds 100% increase to their average, which is as close to a sure thing as you can get).

In short, I think the 360 will get there first, and I think I make a damn good case for why.

This goal will be obtained during july by the Wii

this will be the brawl of the summer : )

well a good $ 50.00 price cut on all models wouldnt hurt 360 either???
right now they would be smart to drop the arcade to $199.90 and the pro to $279.90 and stick with the elite at $ 350.00.

With a game like GTA4 coming out and all the other exclusives released people would be hard pressed to turn it down.

and I think the 360 would win for sure other then that its a toss up!

People forget the PS2 was 3 bones when it came out a yr later the xbox released for $300.00 six months after that sony cut thier price to $250 and in another 6 months to $199.99 so afte r2 years on the market it was down a hundred bucks! MS needs that type of killer instinct to get thier sale up!

unless their product is truly dead like the DC???

I dont think it is I believe they have at least another 2-3 years with this product but at the 2 1/2 year point they need to cut prices to stay competitive and stimulate sales.

Safe prediction would be that 360 will pass GC first. But I dont know GTAIV,Wiifit and Mario Kart effect will be. They both should pass it atleast in July.

Wii.

Since the beginning of the year:

14 weeks of time passed

Wii (2.48m left):
1.64m total (this year)
117,134 per week (avg)
22 weeks left to pass GC sales in NA
Week of September 7th.

360 (1.3m left):
982,648 total (this year)
70,189 per week (avg)
19 weeks left to pass GC sales in NA
Week of August 24th.

Well, superchunk, you just showed that 360 would get there first, yet you are saying Wii....wtf?

Simple. Sun spots. Seriously, look at last years data. After March closed and Nintendo met their yearly predictions, they increased production for the remainder of the year and pushed out atleast 100k per month more pre-holiday season. I expect the same here. On top of that, Reggie flat out said they would beat 360 in July. That's basically two month's before the two dates above. Why would the captain of NoA make such a claim if he didn't already know they would dramatically up NA supply somtime before that?

360 will see a small, i.e. less than halo 3's, boost when GTA4 launches. Beyond that its sales should remain about the same. 70k-ish per week. Expect August to be when 360 passes GC.

Wii on the other hand will have big boost in supply and thus overall sales by next month. Then on top of that it will get really big boosts from Wii Fit and Mario Kart. Both of which I think will be bigger than any game 360 or PS3 have ever had or will have, and unlike GTA4, both are pure exclusives; no pc ish here.

Last year I made a thread of predictions and I placed Wii's passing of 360NA in August, similar to WW. However, I now think that Reggie is right. It will happen in June/July and Wii will pass GC a couple of weeks before 360 does as well.

I really don't see why you guys are going with the Wii still. Look at the table I posted.

The Wii needs a 30% boost in the current average sales just to get there in the same week as the X360's CURRENT sales pace. If the 360 gets a 30% increase the Wii needs a 70% just to get there the same week. It just seems unfeasible to me even if we assume the Wii will suddenly jump in sales.

Who knows, I've been wrong before but I'll admit up front I really don't think this is one of those times.