Which will pass GCN's NA sales first - 360 or Wii?

[superchunk]

Wii.

Since the beginning of the year:

14 weeks of time passed

Wii (2.48m left):
1.64m total (this year)
117,134 per week (avg)
22 weeks left to pass GC sales in NA
Week of September 7th.

360 (1.3m left):
982,648 total (this year)
70,189 per week (avg)
19 weeks left to pass GC sales in NA
Week of August 24th.

Well, superchunk, you just showed that 360 would get there first, yet you are saying Wii....wtf?

Simple. Sun spots. Seriously, look at last years data. After March closed and Nintendo met their yearly predictions, they increased production for the remainder of the year and pushed out atleast 100k per month more pre-holiday season. I expect the same here. On top of that, Reggie flat out said they would beat 360 in July. That's basically two month's before the two dates above. Why would the captain of NoA make such a claim if he didn't already know they would dramatically up NA supply somtime before that?

360 will see a small, i.e. less than halo 3's, boost when GTA4 launches. Beyond that its sales should remain about the same. 70k-ish per week. Expect August to be when 360 passes GC.

Wii on the other hand will have big boost in supply and thus overall sales by next month. Then on top of that it will get really big boosts from Wii Fit and Mario Kart. Both of which I think will be bigger than any game 360 or PS3 have ever had or will have, and unlike GTA4, both are pure exclusives; no pc ish here.

Last year I made a thread of predictions and I placed Wii's passing of 360NA in August, similar to WW. However, I now think that Reggie is right. It will happen in June/July and Wii will pass GC a couple of weeks before 360 does as well.