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Forums - Gaming - The Switch could surpass the Xbox One by 2019

 

When do you think the Switch could surpass the Xbox One

Q2 2019 94 28.40%
 
Q3 2019 42 12.69%
 
Q4 2019 71 21.45%
 
Q1 2020 32 9.67%
 
Q2 2020 44 13.29%
 
Never! The Xbox One X has got this! 48 14.50%
 
Total:331
S.T.A.G.E. on 31 October 2017
jason1637 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

Last year... when the switch wasn't out. The switch and PlayStation have taken mindshare from Xbox all year. Both Sony and Microsoft will sell all this year but Nintendo is heading straight into the holiday season with shipments projected to increase from Nintendo.

Well yea the Switch will take sales away but i think the X will be able to sell well enough to make up for lost sales. Also last year November the XBox One sold less than it normally does in November(It sold only 1m), with the X im pretty sure November will be up YOY and December i think could be flat or down a bit YOY.

Yeah, but it won't save their year, but it will be a short term buffer. They need games and I Mean good games if they mean to compete outside of a scale of five years. When the weaknesses are exposed and the competition is on fire you must be too. The x will sell well though.



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jason1637 on 31 October 2017
S.T.A.G.E. said:
jason1637 said:

Well yea the Switch will take sales away but i think the X will be able to sell well enough to make up for lost sales. Also last year November the XBox One sold less than it normally does in November(It sold only 1m), with the X im pretty sure November will be up YOY and December i think could be flat or down a bit YOY.

Yeah, but it won't save their year. That's the point im making. After the x it won't have the same launch effect logically in the long run no different than the pro. Although Sony did the same thing micorsoft spruces up what little they have to offer and make it look like it's the best thing on earth. The Xbox is losing sales because of a lack of compelling exclusive content to keep mindshare. The x will sell to a smaller fraction of an audience but it will not save them.

I'm not saying the X will save MS or Xbox I'm just saying it should do well enough for them to sell as well as they did last holiday and it should help the Xbox be up YOY for the first few months next year. Also the lineup next year is better than this year so that will help also.



flashfire926 on 31 October 2017

Wow, there are people here that don't think X1 won't reach 50M.....I don't know what to say. I am open to an no-risk bet, so Iets bet.

Anyways, I predict mid 2020.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

S.T.A.G.E. on 31 October 2017
jason1637 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

Yeah, but it won't save their year. That's the point im making. After the x it won't have the same launch effect logically in the long run no different than the pro. Although Sony did the same thing micorsoft spruces up what little they have to offer and make it look like it's the best thing on earth. The Xbox is losing sales because of a lack of compelling exclusive content to keep mindshare. The x will sell to a smaller fraction of an audience but it will not save them.

I'm not saying the X will save MS or Xbox I'm just saying it should do well enough for them to sell as well as they did last holiday and it should help the Xbox be up YOY for the first few months next year. Also the lineup next year is better than this year so that will help also.

Sorry...I noticed my error before you responded, but couldn't get it out soon enough. Sorry for misreading. Once again.... I do think the x will sell well, but in Microsofts case I see it at as a distraction to fixing a major problem that hurts their console longevity. Once again, my apologies.



S.T.A.G.E. on 31 October 2017
Mr Puggsly said:

Switch surpassing X1 in 2019 makes two assumptions. Switch momentum won't stop and X1 will see a big drop.

If X1 can hold its sales at about 8 million a year, it should be at 50 million by the end of 2019. So that means Switch needs to do north of like 17 million 3 years straight.

So if trends continue as they are, 2020 seems more likely.


For the record though, even if both had an equal userbase they still appeal to very different audiences. Their software sales will reflect that.

Early 2020 is a fair bet. I can't the the foreseeable games on the Xbox keeping the console selling stable. This year has been a definite indicator as well. Let's hope something sticks next year for the Xbox.



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S.T.A.G.E. on 31 October 2017
flashfire926 said:
Wow, there are people here that don't think X1 won't reach 50M.....I don't know what to say. I am open to an no-risk bet, so Iets bet.

Anyways, I predict mid 2020.

Without credible content the platform will flounder. Their competition is outhustling them in the market and development. They've been getting trounced all year.



flashfire926 on 31 October 2017
S.T.A.G.E. said:
flashfire926 said:
Wow, there are people here that don't think X1 won't reach 50M.....I don't know what to say. I am open to an no-risk bet, so Iets bet.

Anyways, I predict mid 2020.

Without credible content the platform will flounder. Their competition is outhustling them in the market and development. They've been getting trounced all year.

It isn't gonna flounder, it's just gonna chug along with unremarkable but enough sales. 2018 looks remarkably better than 2017 for them as well.

 

So should I take this as you accepting the bet?



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

konnichiwa on 31 October 2017
flashfire926 said:
Wow, there are people here that don't think X1 won't reach 50M.....I don't know what to say. I am open to an no-risk bet, so Iets bet.

Anyways, I predict mid 2020.

The Xbox 360 and PS3 would also not reach 50 million.






flashfire926 on 31 October 2017
konnichiwa said:
flashfire926 said:
Wow, there are people here that don't think X1 won't reach 50M.....I don't know what to say. I am open to an no-risk bet, so Iets bet.

Anyways, I predict mid 2020.

The Xbox 360 and PS3 would also not reach 50 million.

Is this supposed to be sarcasm or a jab or something? Sorry for my bad comprehension skills lol



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

S.T.A.G.E. on 31 October 2017
flashfire926 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

Without credible content the platform will flounder. Their competition is outhustling them in the market and development. They've been getting trounced all year.

It isn't gonna flounder, it's just gonna chug along with unremarkable but enough sales. 2018 looks remarkably better than 2017 for them as well.

 

So should I take this as you accepting the bet?

Sure..the x is only going to help them this holiday season, but they have no other short term distractions to save them from their lackluster first party. Last gen at least they had the Kinect to stave off the playstations advances from 2010 to 2012... but this gen is free and clear. Yeah... next years games won't do much, especially with Sonys first party hitting its peak and Nintendo claiming it has new ips coming. See that's the thing... I trust Nintendo and Sonys first party more when they say it's coming. Hell I'll even put money on it that's Spencer in his heart of hearts trust them more too. I agree with the statement that they will chug to the finish line. If micoreoty gets to 50 mil it will be close to the time they announce the next Xbox for sure and with the now crowded market they will be getting there closer to 2020. The switch will be close to edge closer to their mid 40 million mark by q4 2019 for sure.

Last edited by S.T.A.G.E. - on 31 October 2017