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Forums - Gaming Discussion - The Switch could surpass the Xbox One by 2019

 

When do you think the Switch could surpass the Xbox One

Q2 2019 94 28.40%
 
Q3 2019 42 12.69%
 
Q4 2019 71 21.45%
 
Q1 2020 32 9.67%
 
Q2 2020 44 13.29%
 
Never! The Xbox One X has got this! 48 14.50%
 
Total:331
konnichiwa on 31 October 2017
Intrinsic said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

Yeah, its weird too. The only console seller they have is a console. Their whole 2018 spread are small games or mid tier games. 

Not really weird when you think about it. Most of us saw it being this way years ago. You simply reap what you sow. One company is investing in new studios and new IPs and the other is shutting tehm down and shelving IPs and recycling teh same IPs they have always had. Something has to give.

And it doesn't help that MS makes or seems to make some of the most ridiculous gaming choices. Like spending $2.5B on minecraft...... at $100M a pop that could have funded 25 new IPs!!!

In retrospect it was an financial investment that is doing well, considering when they bought it only sold 60 million copies and early this year they surpassed 120 million copies (close to 140-150 million at the end of this year I guess). Include all the mash packs/Monthly Realm fees/Merchandise and they must be close to making their money back or already did. Making an investment that potentially can makes you billions is not rediculous.






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konnichiwa on 31 October 2017
flashfire926 said:
konnichiwa said:

The Xbox 360 and PS3 would also not reach 50 million.

Is this supposed to be sarcasm or a jab or something? Sorry for my bad comprehension skills lol

We had a thread on Vgchartz an infamous one, where a lot of people predicted and agreed that Xbox 360/PS3 will not sell 50 millions 3-4 years after the launch of the Xbox 360.






flashfire926 on 31 October 2017
S.T.A.G.E. said:
flashfire926 said:

It isn't gonna flounder, it's just gonna chug along with unremarkable but enough sales. 2018 looks remarkably better than 2017 for them as well.

 

So should I take this as you accepting the bet?

Sure..the x is only going to help them this holiday season, but they have no other short term distractions to save them from their lackluster first party. Last gen at least they had the Kinect to stave off the playstations advances from 2010 to 2012... but this gen is free and clear. Yeah... next years games won't do much, especially with Sonys first party hitting its peak and Nintendo claiming it has new ips coming. See that's the thing... I trust Nintendo and Sonys first party more when they say it's coming. Hell I'll even put money on it that's Spencer in his heart of hearts trust them more too. I agree with the statement that they will chug to the finish line. If micoreoty gets to 50 mil it will be close to the time they announce the next Xbox for sure and with the now crowded market they will be getting there closer to 2020. The switch will be close to edge closer to their mid 40 million mark by q4 2019 for sure.

Fair enough



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

flashfire926 on 31 October 2017
konnichiwa said:
flashfire926 said:

Is this supposed to be sarcasm or a jab or something? Sorry for my bad comprehension skills lol

We had a thread on Vgchartz an infamous one, where a lot of people predicted and agreed that Xbox 360/PS3 will not sell 50 millions 3-4 years after the launch of the Xbox 360.

HAHAHAHA LOOOOL

This sounds like those people agreeing on 100M+ for Wii U, but in reverse.



Bet with Intrinsic:

The Switch will outsell 3DS (based on VGchartz numbers), according to me, while Intrinsic thinks the opposite will hold true. One month avatar control for the loser's avatar.

Mr Puggsly on 31 October 2017
S.T.A.G.E. said:
Mr Puggsly said:

Switch surpassing X1 in 2019 makes two assumptions. Switch momentum won't stop and X1 will see a big drop.

If X1 can hold its sales at about 8 million a year, it should be at 50 million by the end of 2019. So that means Switch needs to do north of like 17 million 3 years straight.

So if trends continue as they are, 2020 seems more likely.


For the record though, even if both had an equal userbase they still appeal to very different audiences. Their software sales will reflect that.

Early 2020 is a fair bet. I can't the the foreseeable games on the Xbox keeping the console selling stable. This year has been a definite indicator as well. Let's hope something sticks next year for the Xbox.

Well I think its safe too assume MS has some big budget exclusives happening, inevitable sequels, but they arent relying solely on 1st party games. Xbox users primarily play multiplats while the exclusives encourage people to get that platform. So I think things are planned even if MS is silent thus far.

X1 is competive with price and has AAA games bundled. Which will be notable this and every Black Friday. X1X is gonna rely on having the best console ports. I imagine that will keep sales steady but we will see.



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S.T.A.G.E. on 31 October 2017
Mr Puggsly said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

Early 2020 is a fair bet. I can't the the foreseeable games on the Xbox keeping the console selling stable. This year has been a definite indicator as well. Let's hope something sticks next year for the Xbox.

Well I think its safe too assume MS has some big budget exclusives happening, inevitable sequels, but they arent relying solely on 1st party games. Xbox users primarily play multiplats while the exclusives encourage people to get that platform. So I think things are planned even if MS is silent thus far.

X1 is competive with price and has AAA games bundled. Which will be notable this and every Black Friday. X1X is gonna rely on having the best console ports. I imagine that will keep sales steady but we will see.

no one really hyped up Microsoft first party unless it's halo or gears. That's why I'm saying they must step up their gams and stop paying these outside devs to make exclusives for them. If it fails it's just another game on the first party heap they've amassed that failed since their very first gen.



Aura7541 on 31 October 2017
jason1637 said:
IkePoR said:

That... is very bold.  So bold that I bolded it.

Xbox One X is $500. 

That's a Switch, Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2 and Breath of the Wild + DLC.

I'm not trying to argue what consumers will flock to, but when it comes to a value prospect, upgraded visuals to old games for $500 isn't one.

Switch will sell really well this Holiday but the X pre orders have been pretty strong and it doing good on Amazon so i think the 1X could do 1m in 2017.

Please don't do this to yourself. You might want to read Abdiel's perspective on how the XB1X is doing and adjust your expectations accordingly.



S.T.A.G.E. on 31 October 2017
Mr Puggsly said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

Early 2020 is a fair bet. I can't the the foreseeable games on the Xbox keeping the console selling stable. This year has been a definite indicator as well. Let's hope something sticks next year for the Xbox.

Well I think its safe too assume MS has some big budget exclusives happening, inevitable sequels, but they arent relying solely on 1st party games. Xbox users primarily play multiplats while the exclusives encourage people to get that platform. So I think things are planned even if MS is silent thus far.

X1 is competive with price and has AAA games bundled. Which will be notable this and every Black Friday. X1X is gonna rely on having the best console ports. I imagine that will keep sales steady but we will see.

no one really hyped up Microsoft first party unless it's halo or gears. That's why I'm saying they must step up their game and stop paying these outside devs to make exclusives for them. They need to be self sufficient. If it fails it's just another game on the first party heap they've amassed that failed since their very first gen. They are only brand that doesn't rely on first party and every generation we have to have the same conversation about Microsoft.



AnmolRed on 31 October 2017

I don't think the X1X will provide that big of a boost, though a boost will be there on sales, depends on next year's software lineup really, Nintendo can make it a 16-18 million year and overtake them by q4 or q3 2019



Playstation_awaiter on 31 October 2017

Of course it will.