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Forums - Gaming - The Switch could surpass the Xbox One by 2019

 

When do you think the Switch could surpass the Xbox One

Q2 2019 94 28.40%
 
Q3 2019 42 12.69%
 
Q4 2019 71 21.45%
 
Q1 2020 32 9.67%
 
Q2 2020 44 13.29%
 
Never! The Xbox One X has got this! 48 14.50%
 
Total:331
ThisGuyFooks on 31 October 2017
jason1637 said:

With the X I think the XB1 will do 4m more by years end bringing it to 7m this year. Next year it should be slightly up with a better lineup and the X then I think it will drop a lot more. 38-40m by end of 2019 will be crazy bad. That means in the next two years it will sell 8-9m.

Well, you sure are really hopeful about the X.



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jason1637 on 31 October 2017
ThisGuyFooks said:
jason1637 said:

With the X I think the XB1 will do 4m more by years end bringing it to 7m this year. Next year it should be slightly up with a better lineup and the X then I think it will drop a lot more. 38-40m by end of 2019 will be crazy bad. That means in the next two years it will sell 8-9m.

Well, you sure are really hopeful about the X.

Not really. Last year the XB1 sold just over 4m in November and December.



S.T.A.G.E. on 31 October 2017
ThisGuyFooks said:
jason1637 said:

With the X I think the XB1 will do 4m more by years end bringing it to 7m this year. Next year it should be slightly up with a better lineup and the X then I think it will drop a lot more. 38-40m by end of 2019 will be crazy bad. That means in the next two years it will sell 8-9m.

Well, you sure are really hopeful about the X.

Yes... it's rather curious logic. They should gauge the x by the pro regardless of the fact that it's superior tech. It's also being sold at cost, which means production will be limited based on demand until the cost goes down to a profit. It might the x a slightly above a year to profit.



S.T.A.G.E. on 31 October 2017
jason1637 said:
ThisGuyFooks said:

Well, you sure are really hopeful about the X.

Not really. Last year the XB1 sold just over 4m in November and December.

Last year... when the switch wasn't out. The switch and PlayStation have taken mindshare from Xbox all year. Both Sony and Microsoft will sell all this year but Nintendo is heading straight into the holiday season with shipments projected to increase from Nintendo.



jason1637 on 31 October 2017
S.T.A.G.E. said:
jason1637 said:

Not really. Last year the XB1 sold just over 4m in November and December.

Last year... when the switch wasn't out. The switch and PlayStation have taken mindshare from Xbox all year. Both Sony and Microsoft will sell all this year but Nintendo is heading straight into the holiday season with shipments projected to increase from Nintendo.

Well yea the Switch will take sales away but i think the X will be able to sell well enough to make up for lost sales. Also last year November the XBox One sold less than it normally does in November(It sold only 1m), with the X im pretty sure November will be up YOY and December i think could be flat or down a bit YOY.



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GribbleGrunger on 31 October 2017

Late 2020 or early 2021.



 

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Pok87 on 31 October 2017

It is possible. Maybe in Q4 2019.



IkePoR on 31 October 2017
jason1637 said:
S.T.A.G.E. said:

Last year... when the switch wasn't out. The switch and PlayStation have taken mindshare from Xbox all year. Both Sony and Microsoft will sell all this year but Nintendo is heading straight into the holiday season with shipments projected to increase from Nintendo.

Well yea the Switch will take sales away but i think the X will be able to sell well enough to make up for lost sales. Also last year November the XBox One sold less than it normally does in November(It sold only 1m), with the X im pretty sure November will be up YOY and December i think could be flat or down a bit YOY.

That... is very bold.  So bold that I bolded it.

Xbox One X is $500. 

That's a Switch, Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2 and Breath of the Wild + DLC.

I'm not trying to argue what consumers will flock to, but when it comes to a value prospect, upgraded visuals to old games for $500 isn't one.



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Mr Puggsly on 31 October 2017

Switch surpassing X1 in 2019 makes two assumptions. Switch momentum won't stop and X1 will see a big drop.

If X1 can hold its sales at about 8 million a year, it should be at 50 million by the end of 2019. So that means Switch needs to do north of like 17 million 3 years straight.

So if trends continue as they are, 2020 seems more likely.


For the record though, even if both had an equal userbase they still appeal to very different audiences. Their software sales will reflect that.



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jason1637 on 31 October 2017
IkePoR said:
jason1637 said:

Well yea the Switch will take sales away but i think the X will be able to sell well enough to make up for lost sales. Also last year November the XBox One sold less than it normally does in November(It sold only 1m), with the X im pretty sure November will be up YOY and December i think could be flat or down a bit YOY.

That... is very bold.  So bold that I bolded it.

Xbox One X is $500. 

That's a Switch, Mario Odyssey, Splatoon 2 and Breath of the Wild + DLC.

I'm not trying to argue what consumers will flock to, but when it comes to a value prospect, upgraded visuals to old games for $500 isn't one.

Switch will sell really well this Holiday but the X pre orders have been pretty strong and it doing good on Amazon so i think the 1X could do 1m in 2017.