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Forums - Sales Discussion - 67.5M PS4 shipped. 4.2M in Q2. Forecast for FY raised

Lawlight on 31 October 2017

 

Lawlight said:
I think they will hit around 95M by the end of FY2019 and 105M by the end of FY2020.

Do you think we are going from 3 straight years almost on 20M to 16M and 10M before PS5 release?

Yeah, I think so. Because I think 2019, development would have already shifted to the PS5 and market saturation would be very close to being reached.



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Lawlight on 31 October 2017
Miyamotoo said:
xl-klaudkil said:

Ps4 is still 300 though,  only 100 pricecut  in 4 years.

Ps3 went quickly  from 600 to 300 and  lowest  it ever got here whas 190.

 

Ps4  @150 is a certainty. 

Also ps3 never  got this massive  support  and  phenomenal first party  games.h

PS4 is selling almost everywhere below official price point for quite time now, you very often have deals even for $250 for bundle (for instance you curently have PlayStation 4 Slim 1TB Limited Edition Console - Call of Duty WWII Bundle for $300), I bought my PS4 Slim for $250 last year.

Of Course that PS3 went from 600 to 300 when did not sell good with huge price point.

I dont see point of comparison of PS3 and PS4, also PS3 had very long life.

You probably got it on black friday. At the end of the day, right now you can’t get a PS3 for less than $299. Sure there are bundles where they give you a digital code but that’s not the same as the PS4 selling for $199.

And for the record, base PS4 slim with 500GB is still $299.



Lawlight on 31 October 2017
Shadow1980 said:
Forecast increased by another million? Well, that further demolishes the argument that some have made that the PS4 can't be up YoY because it won't have the supply needed. Assuming the PS4 ships about the same amount of units this coming Jan.-March quarter as it did for this past Q1, it'll be at 76M units shipped by year's end. It could sell 20M for the whole calendar year (+14.3% YoY) and still have 2.6M unsold units left in the supply chain.

Do you still stand by your prediction of the PS4 not outselling the Wii?



DonFerrari on 31 October 2017
StarDoor said:
DonFerrari said:

25% pricecut on initial pricing after 4 years on the market and shipping almost 70M, that is almost no price cut compared to any previous PS.

Using percentages is misleading. The cheapest PS3 model 4 years after release was $299. What this really means is that PS4 has been either equal in price or cheaper than PS3 for its entire lifecycle so far. Not to mention the frequent PS4 firesales to $250: Uncharted 4 + PS4 Slim was $250 on Amazon for the entire summer.

How is misleading when discussing PRICECUTS? If you preffer raw number ok. PS3 launched for 499 and 599, but was cut by 300 USD less than 4 years later, PS4 only by 100 USD... so PS3 had bigger pricecuts and because of it cadence it peaked very later than usual.

And If you want to play the price game, X1 have been cheaper than PS4, PS3 and X360 most of time as well and it is nowhere close to outselling them.

Miyamotoo said:
DonFerrari said:

25% pricecut on initial pricing after 4 years on the market and shipping almost 70M, that is almost no price cut compared to any previous PS.

But its not point only about pricing, you get twice bigger storage and one game alongside those 25% price cut, again base PS4 500GB model without game was $400, PS4 500GB with one game was $450 at launch. Also we have regular sales of PS4 with one game for $250.

Kerotan said:

Ps4 will be far superior for Sony though in terms of profits. For Sony it will be by far it's most successful ever. 

I don't see how profit has anything with matter we talking about (when PS4 peak year will be).

xl-klaudkil said:

Doesn't  matter  what  comes with  it, 300  is still 300 ( and 250) and there not mainstream  prices. 

Ofcourse its matters when very often you have sales of PS4 with one game for $250, and you even now have A PS4 1TB with one game for $300 even official price of $300 is just for base model whitout game.

PS3 had increase in HD space and more games bundled those weren't considered pricecuts, and most customers only ever care about the pricetag of the baseline not if anything else was added when looking for a price.

But ok Go and check the pricecuts for PS1, 2 and 3 and say if any of then had a schedule for pricecut similar to PS4 in how long it took for the pricecuts to come.

Shadow1980 said:
Forecast increased by another million? Well, that further demolishes the argument that some have made that the PS4 can't be up YoY because it won't have the supply needed. Assuming the PS4 ships about the same amount of units this coming Jan.-March quarter as it did for this past Q1, it'll be at 76M units shipped by year's end. It could sell 20M for the whole calendar year (+14.3% YoY) and still have 2.6M unsold units left in the supply chain.

You were the guy I was waiting for... please help our guys here to remember what usually are the peak years for consoles.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

Lawlight on 31 October 2017
Shadow1980 said:
Lawlight said:

Do you still stand by your prediction of the PS4 not outselling the Wii?

Did I predict that? I can't remember.

Yeah, you did in June this year. The reason that the PS4 is trailing the Wii in the US.



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brute on 31 October 2017

People still say $199 is mainstream now? Maybe 5-10 years ago but not anymore due to inflation plus other techs like cell phones costing a butt load. I'd say$249 can be argued as mainstream price.



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Lawlight on 01 November 2017
brute said:
People still say $199 is mainstream now? Maybe 5-10 years ago but not anymore due to inflation plus other techs like cell phones costing a butt load. I'd say$249 can be argued as mainstream price.

Yeah, nah. 10 years ago, the PS2 was selling for $99. Even if it was $199, 5-10 years is not enough to increase the price to $249. You’ll be doubly wrong if the leaked $199 Black Friday PS4 is true. A console is an essential device like a smartphone, a lot of which, btw, people get on a plan.



pxrocks on 01 November 2017

not deserved at all because after 4 yrs i cant even play a new god of war on my ps4 which is just insane and disgusting at the same time.



brute on 01 November 2017
Lawlight said:
brute said:
People still say $199 is mainstream now? Maybe 5-10 years ago but not anymore due to inflation plus other techs like cell phones costing a butt load. I'd say$249 can be argued as mainstream price.

Yeah, nah. 10 years ago, the PS2 was selling for $99. Even if it was $199, 5-10 years is not enough to increase the price to $249. You’ll be doubly wrong if the leaked $199 Black Friday PS4 is true. A console is an essential device like a smartphone, a lot of which, btw, people get on a plan.

Why would I be doubly wrong? If I'm arguing that $249 is mainstream then obviously $199 is even better and will result in much higher sales! Do far $249has proven to be a good price point as both X1 and PS4 have seen great sales when they've trmporary lowered the price to that during the holidays.



tag:"reviews only matter for the real hardcore gamer"

Miyamotoo on 01 November 2017
Lawlight said:
Miyamotoo said:

PS4 is selling almost everywhere below official price point for quite time now, you very often have deals even for $250 for bundle (for instance you curently have PlayStation 4 Slim 1TB Limited Edition Console - Call of Duty WWII Bundle for $300), I bought my PS4 Slim for $250 last year.

Of Course that PS3 went from 600 to 300 when did not sell good with huge price point.

I dont see point of comparison of PS3 and PS4, also PS3 had very long life.

You probably got it on black friday. At the end of the day, right now you can’t get a PS3 for less than $299. Sure there are bundles where they give you a digital code but that’s not the same as the PS4 selling for $199.

And for the record, base PS4 slim with 500GB is still $299.

No I didn't get on Black Friday, for very long you had U4 bundle for $250 on Amazon. PS3 is discounted so how much currently costs is irrelevant.

Talking about ignoring reality, for the record on Amazon US you currently have 2 different LE PS4 1TB consoles that came with one game for $299.

https://www.amazon.com/s/ref=nb_sb_noss?url=search-alias%3Daps&field-keywords=ps4

 

 

DonFerrari said:
Miyamotoo said:

But its not point only about pricing, you get twice bigger storage and one game alongside those 25% price cut, again base PS4 500GB model without game was $400, PS4 500GB with one game was $450 at launch. Also we have regular sales of PS4 with one game for $250.

I don't see how profit has anything with matter we talking about (when PS4 peak year will be).

Ofcourse its matters when very often you have sales of PS4 with one game for $250, and you even now have A PS4 1TB with one game for $300 even official price of $300 is just for base model whitout game.

PS3 had increase in HD space and more games bundled those weren't considered pricecuts, and most customers only ever care about the pricetag of the baseline not if anything else was added when looking for a price.

But ok Go and check the pricecuts for PS1, 2 and 3 and say if any of then had a schedule for pricecut similar to PS4 in how long it took for the pricecuts to come.

If you really see difference of $100 in price and don't see any difference between PS4 500GB model compared to PS4 1TB bundle with one game, I dont know what say to you, because there is huge difference in value between those 2 bundles.

Fact is that PS4 is really selling below oficaly $299 price and that's my point, $299 is just official price on paper, in reality you can buy for less than that or buy much bundle with much bigger value (1TB bundle with game).

Last edited by Miyamotoo - on 01 November 2017