Shadow1980 said:
I found the thread, and in it I said the PS4 passing the Wii isn't a given, but that my median estimate has just squeaking past the Wii with a total of 105M for a median estimate.
Right now, I'm estimating 35M for the U.S., 10M for Japan, 45M for Europe, and 20M for the rest of the world, a total of 110M. However, I'm assuming a generous 10% margin of error for my estimate, putting the range at 99M to 121M. If the PS4's sales start to decline too fast, and/or the PS5 is released in 2019 instead of later, the PS4 could fail to pass the Wii, but that's a pessimistic projection. My optimistic projection assumes a more modest decline in sales and a PS5 release date of 2021 or later. With Sony's revised shipment estimates for FY2017, plus their suggestion that the PS4 won't be replaced anytime soon, I'm thinking the pessimistic scenario is now very unlikely, and that the mid to high range is now more likely.
The real test will be next year. My estimates assume that this is the peak year for the PS4 and that sales will start to decline at a rate we typically see post-peak. But if sales can remain at least flat or manage only a small drop (<10% YoY) next year, a 20% drop in 2019 & 2020, and the PS5 launching in 2021, then that means 120M may start to become a more reasonable median estimate, with global sales maybe looking something like this:
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19 million for 2017 looks low. They sold 7 million only the first 5 months and one week, compared to 4.1 million of the first 4 months and 3 weeks of last year, that's a huuuuuuuuuuge increase.
They also sold 6.2 million from Black Friday + December, i do think is very likely PS4 will at least match those results.
So i do think 2017 should be 20 million, and 2018 18 million. Then it all depend when PS5 comes out. Honestly i really don't know, it could be 2019 or 2020... if PS5 release in 2019, i think we'll see something like this:
2013 - 4.2m / 4.2m
2014 - 14.3m / 18.5m
2015 - 17.4m / 35.9m
2016 - 17.5m / 53.4m
2017 - 20.0m / 73.4m
2018 - 18.0m / 91.4m
2019 - 11.0m / 102.4m
2020 - 6.0m / 108.4m
2021 - 3.0m / 111.4m
2022 - 1.5m / 112.9m
LIFETIME < 115 MILLION
If we see a 2020 launch then:
2013 - 4.2m / 4.2m
2014 - 14.3m / 18.5m
2015 - 17.4m / 35.9m
2016 - 17.5m / 53.4m
2017 - 20.0m / 73.4m
2018 - 18.0m / 91.4m
2019 - 15.0m / 106.4m
2020 - 9.0m / 115.4m
2021 - 5.0m / 120.4m
2022 - 2.5m / 122.9m
2023 - 1.0m / 123.9m
LIFETIME < 125 MILLION
Last edited by Ryng - on 01 November 2017
