Shadow1980 said:
I found the thread, and in it I said the PS4 passing the Wii isn't a given, but that my median estimate has just squeaking past the Wii with a total of 105M for a median estimate. Right now, I'm estimating 35M for the U.S., 10M for Japan, 45M for Europe, and 20M for the rest of the world, a total of 110M. However, I'm assuming a generous 10% margin of error for my estimate, putting the range at 99M to 121M. If the PS4's sales start to decline too fast, and/or the PS5 is released in 2019 instead of later, the PS4 could fail to pass the Wii, but that's a pessimistic projection. My optimistic projection assumes a more modest decline in sales and a PS5 release date of 2021 or later. With Sony's revised shipment estimates for FY2017, plus their suggestion that the PS4 won't be replaced anytime soon, I'm thinking the pessimistic scenario is now very unlikely, and that the mid to high range is now more likely. The real test will be next year. My estimates assume that this is the peak year for the PS4 and that sales will start to decline at a rate we typically see post-peak. But if sales can remain at least flat or manage only a small drop (<10% YoY) next year, a 20% drop in 2019 & 2020, and the PS5 launching in 2021, then that means 120M may start to become a more reasonable median estimate, with global sales maybe looking something like this:
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Why do you think it will do 45m in europe, but only 35m in the US?
Look at the PS3 & PS2:
PS2 = US~54m, EU~55m
PS3 = US~30m, EU~35m
PS4 = US~22m, EU~25m (so far)
I think PS4 will do more than 45m in EU,.... But I also think it ll be 40m+ in the US.
And I think your drop off in 2019 is too big, it ll probably go slower than that (ei. sell more that year).
