Well, going from 3DS to Switch is going to be a huge hurdle either cost or marketing wise for a lot of those AA 3DS companies. Sure, you can make AA Switch games, but they are going to be a lot more costly than 3DS titles due to going from N64/PS2 era graphics to PS3 era graphics. If those games don't get so much graphical improvement they will be a hard sell at $60, which is a bit of a marketing conundrum. Project Octopath looks like they might have the solution to that issue though if they release a physical version for $40. 

Anyway at the end of the day it sounds like you are saying that any Japanese Developed game that *can* be put on the Switch, will be put on the Switch. Or at least a large majority of them. That's a huge boost to Nintendo's third party support if it winds up happening. 

Yeah, but at the very least they are going to wind up with budgets along the lines of YS VIII, instead of budgets as slim as Atlus' 3DS offerings. Non-Indie games made with budgets under a million dollars will become a thing of the past. I just hope the AA studios can handle the financial pressure that will bring on. 

Edit: What am I saying? They could just as easily go the same route as Octopath while charging $40, and they'd be fine. 

I agree, one day they may go back to the days they were in love with Ayrton Senna

This is one pokemon you won't tame.

I could see SMT Switch becoming a Switch/PS4 title pretty easily. 

Not sure what you mean here. Elaborate please. 

Examples include? 

Though if ATLUS (and sega, thier owner) did that they peobably will bring persona to the switch, which is a net gain for nintendo, especially since, for actually a lot of 3ds owners, persona is the only big reason to get a vita/ps4.

Ha, take that Microsoft.

1. There are Vita developers that have managed to keep the doors open, but most of them do this by porting their games over to PS3/PS4 for a sales boost. I can't think of a single Vita developer with games approaching the quality of Ys VIII that exclusively makes games for the Vita, and sells under 100k copies. 

2. A lot of AA 3DS developers will turn to Switch, while porting to PS4 or PC for a sales boost.  Exclusive AA game development on the Switch won't be able to sustain itself at under 100k copies, in the same way that exclusive 3DS development can. Some people might be willing to point out that Octopath Traveler is exclusive to Switch, but that game is mostly 2D, and on the  extremely low budget end when it comes to AA development. PC will get ports, but not nearly as many as PS4 simply because PC is ignored in Japan. 

3. Any Japanese third party PS4 devs that *can* port their games to Switch *will* port their games to Switch. It's free money sitting on the table, and since Switch is a domestic success Japanese companies won't be as blind to porting to Switch as they are to porting to Xbox/PC. 

4.  Launch day, Switch ports will wind up being a priority for Indie devs, since Nintendo fans like quality and are hungry for portable Indie experiences. 

5. A result of all this is that the hardware market will wind up streamlining itself, or shrinking depending on how you look at it. During the DS/PSP generation you needed both systems in order to enjoy the majority of good handheld games. During the PS2/Xbox/GC generation you needed either all three systems or at least a PS2, GC, and PC in order to be able to play the majority of good non-handheld games. Once the majority of games that were PC/Xbox only started coming to the PS3, you only really needed a PS3 and a Wii to be able to enjoy the majority of good non-handheld games. With the failure of the Vita, and the excessive porting of Vita games to PS4 you only really need a 3DS and a PS4 to be able to play the best handheld offerings this generation. Since Switch is going to inherit the 3DS and PS4 developers, *and* since PS4 is likely to inherit 3DS developers, in the same way that it inherited Vita devs, you will only really need a PS4/Switch combo to be able to play the majority of the best games this console generation. Likewise if you have a PC/Switch combo, or an Xbox/Switch combo you'll be in a similar boat, but just missing out on Sony 1st party games. 

Like I said above, the hardware market is going to shrink or streamline itself, since people won't need as many systems to access all the best games. Sony will wind up struggling against the Switch with PS5 in Japan. Xbox will either leave the console market entirely or lose a ton of ground worldwide to PS5 next generation. 

Why will Xbox either leave the market or lose a ton of ground? Well, Xbox has lost it's unique niche this generation. During the PS2/GC/Xbox generation, Xbox was the best place to play PC games on a console, and the best place to play online. It was also seen as the inheritor of the Goldeneye crowd, and that made it popular with male gamers aged 16-25.  During the PS3/360/Wii generation Xbox was the cheaper alternative to the PS3, with better online networks, and PC ports that played better/arrived sooner. Xbox started to lose exclusivity of games that only came to PC/Xbox towards the second half of the PS3/360/Wii generation. With the PS4/XB1 generation the Xbox lost all the advantages that it had over Sony. Sony's online is just as good, Sony gets all the same good third party PC games as XB1, and Sony's console costs just as much. MS thinks they can recover from their current sales slump by releasing a mid-gen upgrade, but that strategy ignores the entirety of the history of the console/handheld market. Power has *never* won out over price and library in 40 years of console/handheld history. In fact, the more powerful and more expensive you make your system, the more likely you are to lose developers and customers to the competition. 

Oh and one final thought. This is how I see Japanese Switch third party support going over the next few years... 

2018: Octopath Traveler proves to AA devs that Switch is a good third party option. A few developers start to plan Switch releases for late 2019, but  most of them stick to the 3DS.

2019: Some AA devs continue to support the 3DS way past its life cycle, but they start to have Switch/PS4 titles planned out for 2020. 

2020: Japanese third party devs fully embrace the Switch. PS5 launches but has a seriously hard time getting Japanese games for a while due to a low install base.  Nintendo prints money. 

2021: PS5 starts to gain traction and most devs wind up making games for PS5/PS4/Switch in the same way that today's devs make PS3/Vita/PS4 games. Nintendo continues to print money. 

Of course Persona is coming to Switch. Persona 3 and 4 both got ported over to Vita/PSP a few years after their PS2 releases. With the death of the Vita, Atlus will just bring that GotY edition of Persona 5 to Switch. 

Well, you spoke at length about 3rd party support being forced to go from PS4 to Switch, which really has nothing supporting it yet. I was saying that the third option for markets was missing.

ETA: I see you touched on this later in the thread. That isn't absorbing 3rd party support. Getting a cheap, dirty port was the Vita's occupation.