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Forums - Sales Discussion - September NPD 2017 prediction thread (yes, here we go again)

 

Which console will sell more

Switch 168 57.73%
 
PlayStation 4 115 39.52%
 
Xbox one 8 2.75%
 
Total:291
DroidKnight said:
PS4--245,000
Switch--243,000
Xbox One--143,000

5 week month.  Oops.     Revised #'s  (PS4 300,000,  Switch  298,000,  Xbox 182,000)



...to avoid getting banned for inactivity, I may have to resort to comments that are of a lower overall quality and or beneath my moral standards.

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Farsala said:
Yeah, a lot of you are predicting a pretty bad September, possibly the worst in recent years. Remember it is 5 weeks.

In the case of the Switch it all depend on Nintendo stock, doesn't really mean much if September is a better month than August/July. Though recently we saw some new big shipments so... i may change my prediction.

For PS4, August sales are around 191,000 units estimated. Destiny 2 so far is looking like a big drop compared to the first one, and i honestly don't see people buying PS4 for it, Destiny fanbase already has a PS4. Same can be said for FIFA, NBA, and literally everthing in this month. There is a Destiny bundle, which is very expensive tho and he didn't do very well on Amazon, so i don't expect very good performance for that bundle. Imo, PS4 is definitively gonna have a smaller increase MOM compared to last year, while she can still be up YOY, it won't be by a huge margin, after all, last year we saw a price drop and Slim release. I honestly only expect a 15/20% increase in weekly sales, not much more than that.

Same for XB1. Nothing which can have a big impact this month, Destiny, FIFA, NBA ecc all games with a fanbase on XB1 who already have the console, there is no pricedrop or new bundles, so the MOM increase should not be very big. Just look at June for example, even June usually is a big increase over May. yet XB1 only saw boost from 109,000 to 153,000, i think Agust > September should be a similar scenario, or barely better at best.



Random_Matt said:
PS4 + Fifa = win.

Fifa isn't very big in America.



Maybe you should mention in the OP that this is a 5-week month.

[PS4] 310k
[NSW] 275k
[XB1] 200k

Switch has been pretty consistent in July and August. I just went with 55k/week. PS4 I tried to find a balance keeping it up YOY but not as high as previous years. XB1 I figured slightly better than previous months. It sold 30k/week in August so I made it 40k.



PS4 -310k
Switch - 300k
SNES - 220k
XBO - 170k
3DS - 150k



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Ryng_Tolu said:
Farsala said:
Yeah, a lot of you are predicting a pretty bad September, possibly the worst in recent years. Remember it is 5 weeks.

In the case of the Switch it all depend on Nintendo stock, doesn't really mean much if September is a better month than August/July. Though recently we saw some new big shipments so... i may change my prediction.

For PS4, August sales are around 191,000 units estimated. Destiny 2 so far is looking like a big drop compared to the first one, and i honestly don't see people buying PS4 for it, Destiny fanbase already has a PS4. Same can be said for FIFA, NBA, and literally everthing in this month. There is a Destiny bundle, which is very expensive tho and he didn't do very well on Amazon, so i don't expect very good performance for that bundle. Imo, PS4 is definitively gonna have a smaller increase MOM compared to last year, while she can still be up YOY, it won't be by a huge margin, after all, last year we saw a price drop and Slim release. I honestly only expect a 15/20% increase in weekly sales, not much more than that.

Same for XB1. Nothing which can have a big impact this month, Destiny, FIFA, NBA ecc all games with a fanbase on XB1 who already have the console, there is no pricedrop or new bundles, so the MOM increase should not be very big. Just look at June for example, even June usually is a big increase over May. yet XB1 only saw boost from 109,000 to 153,000, i think Agust > September should be a similar scenario, or barely better at best.

I might be a bit optimistic for PS4 this year since its been up YoY so many months. But last year had nothing going by the same logic. The top games were sports games and old games. This year we at least have Destiny 2 instead of Taken king or collection of Destiny. And LE bundles tend to just add to sales rather then replace sales.

Edit: Oh and 160k August last year became 191k this year. If we use the same % increase then we get 340k for PS4, but even I am not that optimistic. XB1 will definitely be down because it had a lot going for it last year and this year there is the XB1X.



Farsala said:
Yeah, a lot of you are predicting a pretty bad September, possibly the worst in recent years. Remember it is 5 weeks.

Thx for the reminder, will up my prediction then

Opdated numbers and added the 3DS and the SNES classic:

Switch: 325k

PS4: 285k

Xbox ONE: 195k

3DS: 155k

SNES: 340k



My first prediction! I'll probably be extremely wrong lol.
Looking at how high the switch rose on amazon after the restock suggests that demand is still really high, and while it's obviously not representative of nationwide stock levels, I think there will be More of a correlation than others think, as switch production is supposedly increasing around this month (However - few notable releases for switch, and more for PS4). With that in mind:

Switch: 300k

PS4: 295k

XB1: 160k

3ds: 150k

SNES: 310k



Farsala said:
Ryng_Tolu said:

In the case of the Switch it all depend on Nintendo stock, doesn't really mean much if September is a better month than August/July. Though recently we saw some new big shipments so... i may change my prediction.

For PS4, August sales are around 191,000 units estimated. Destiny 2 so far is looking like a big drop compared to the first one, and i honestly don't see people buying PS4 for it, Destiny fanbase already has a PS4. Same can be said for FIFA, NBA, and literally everthing in this month. There is a Destiny bundle, which is very expensive tho and he didn't do very well on Amazon, so i don't expect very good performance for that bundle. Imo, PS4 is definitively gonna have a smaller increase MOM compared to last year, while she can still be up YOY, it won't be by a huge margin, after all, last year we saw a price drop and Slim release. I honestly only expect a 15/20% increase in weekly sales, not much more than that.

Same for XB1. Nothing which can have a big impact this month, Destiny, FIFA, NBA ecc all games with a fanbase on XB1 who already have the console, there is no pricedrop or new bundles, so the MOM increase should not be very big. Just look at June for example, even June usually is a big increase over May. yet XB1 only saw boost from 109,000 to 153,000, i think Agust > September should be a similar scenario, or barely better at best.

I might be a bit optimistic for PS4 this year since its been up YoY so many months. But last year had nothing going by the same logic. The top games were sports games and old games. This year we at least have Destiny 2 instead of Taken king or collection of Destiny. And LE bundles tend to just add to sales rather then replace sales.

Edit: Oh and 160k August last year became 191k this year. If we use the same % increase then we get 340k for PS4, but even I am not that optimistic. XB1 will definitely be down because it had a lot going for it last year and this year there is the XB1X.

PS4 had the slim model launch and a price drop to $299 in September 2016.



Won bet with t3mporary_126 - I correctly predicted that the Wii U's LTD at the end of 2014 would be closer to 9 million than 10 million. http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=6673287

Month is a strange one. Destiny 2 didn't seem to light the world on fire like the last one, anecdotally I noticed a lot of Switch stock in my local stores, and the Xbox probably actually had a decent week for Destiny since they dropped the Madden 18 bundle to $249 and offered Destiny (or any game, but really Destiny) for free along with it. I may add in numbers later, but right now I'm thinking Switch took the month, with PS4 having a decent month and Xbox One having a good boost over last month that is likely to crater even further in October with the price of the Madden bundle rising back to $279.