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Forums - Sales Discussion - Media Create/Famitsu/Dengeki - 11th - 17th Sept 2017

Kerotan on 26 September 2017

@Carl
I actually agree that you can make a psv + ps4 vs PS3 + psp comparison. Personally I always took the PSP to be the ps2 gen but never gave much thought to it.

So to summarise i agree with the following comparisons:
Switch vs 3DS/Wii U
PS4 vs PS3
PS4 + vita vs PS3 + psp

The first comparison is to compare the Switch platform to the platforms it's succeeding.

The second to compare ps4 to what it's succeeding

And the third to compare vita + ps4 to what they're individually succeeding. All our valid comparison.

As for the other stuff it's such a stretch to say my opinion is it has to beat both to be a success. You have 1 post where you assume it means that but there are about a hundred others where I make it clear it doesn't. Not a strong case and it's time people stop making these assumptions about my true intentions because it's really dragging these threads into the gutter.



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the_dengle on 26 September 2017
Kerotan said:

Well the sales of Switch clearly show that uniting the 2 platforms into 1 makes it appealing to new consumers who would never have bought either on their own.  

 

I've also acknowledge that this comparison is also valid as it addresses the overlapping userbase.  

 

Switch vs 3DS+WiiU/2

This isn’t how math works. Taking the average of the two numbers does not address anything. Expanding their market introduces a new variable that is unrelated to the overlap. All of this is still ignoring that hardware sales are far from the be-all, end-all. Are you truly unable to grasp the difference between selling 80 million total hardware across two platforms and selling 80 million hardware for a single platform?



tbone51 on 26 September 2017

Can we make to 40 pages before the next thread comes up tomorrow? I think we can!



Kerotan on 26 September 2017
the_dengle said:
Kerotan said:

Well the sales of Switch clearly show that uniting the 2 platforms into 1 makes it appealing to new consumers who would never have bought either on their own.  

 

I've also acknowledge that this comparison is also valid as it addresses the overlapping userbase.  

 

Switch vs 3DS+WiiU/2

This isn’t how math works. Taking the average of the two numbers does not address anything. Expanding their market introduces a new variable that is unrelated to the overlap. All of this is still ignoring that hardware sales are far from the be-all, end-all. Are you truly unable to grasp the difference between selling 80 million total hardware across two platforms and selling 80 million hardware for a single platform?

I never said it's the best comparison but it's a valid one.  Some else suggested the one where you divided the Wii U sales by 2. But then switch has an advantage Wii U didn't where it will probably get multiple cheaper revisions and households or even individuals will purchase a second or third Switch in years to come. 

 

And I never said it's the be all and end all. Why are you making things up to try and create an argument? 



Kerotan on 26 September 2017
RolStoppable said:
Carl2291 said:

I think that smartphones are the next logical step for Nintendo profits while the market for traditional handheld gaming shrinks.

Traditional handheld gaming is shrinking to its ultimate death by virtue of what Switch is. Or better said, your use of the word 'traditional' complicates the discussion in an unnecessary manner. I guess it's for the best if I split my response to account for either scenario.

1. You don't consider Switch traditional handheld gaming - In that case, traditional handheld gaming is on its way out as Nintendo will have only Switch which takes on a new form of handheld gaming that in reality doesn't differ much, if at all, from traditional handheld gaming.

2. You consider Switch as continuation of handheld gaming - In that case, handheld gaming isn't shrinking anymore. Switch is roughly keeping pace with the 3DS in a launch-aligned comparison, all the while Switch is 30,000 yen and has no problems selling while the 3DS struggled at 25,000 yen and needed a cut to 15,000 yen. In other words, Switch sells like the 3DS at twice the price. That signals a healthy market, not one that is in trouble.

Regardless of whether you pick scenario 1 or 2, smartphones aren't the next logical step for Nintendo profits because Switch will comfortably replace what the 3DS accomplished and add so much more to the bottom line.

You also have to factor in that the Switch would be doing even better if not supply constrained so your argument to Carl is even stronger then you made it sound.  

 

I think a hybrid console + mobile games is Nintendo's best bet. 



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Kerotan on 26 September 2017
RolStoppable said:
Kerotan said:

You also have to factor in that the Switch would be doing even better if not supply constrained so your argument to Carl is even stronger then you made it sound.  

 

I think a hybrid console + mobile games is Nintendo's best bet. 

Nintendo's mobile games are a form of marketing.

A form of marketing and revenue.  In their own right their mobile ventures can be very profitable. 



the_dengle on 26 September 2017
Kerotan said:

I never said it's the best comparison but it's a valid one.  Some else suggested the one where you divided the Wii U sales by 2. But then switch has an advantage Wii U didn't where it will probably get multiple cheaper revisions and households or even individuals will purchase a second or third Switch in years to come. 

 

And I never said it's the be all and end all. Why are you making things up to try and create an argument? 

Putting words to your silliness isn’t making things up. The nature of your comparison completely ignores the meaning of a console sale — as a vessel for software sales. Therefore it is treating hardware sales as the end goal.

”Years to come” is a ways off if you’re intent on carrying on with this nonsensical comparison on a weekly basis. And again you are misrepresenting the meaning of hardware sales by claiming hardware revisions will give the Switch an “advantage” by selling to repeat customers. Selling three consoles to one person is no better than selling one console to that person in the long run. A new model can revitalize interest in a console, but repeat sales does not increase the userbase. This is why I say you are treating hardware sales as the be-all end-all.



Kerotan on 26 September 2017
the_dengle said:
Kerotan said:

I never said it's the best comparison but it's a valid one.  Some else suggested the one where you divided the Wii U sales by 2. But then switch has an advantage Wii U didn't where it will probably get multiple cheaper revisions and households or even individuals will purchase a second or third Switch in years to come. 

 

And I never said it's the be all and end all. Why are you making things up to try and create an argument? 

Putting words to your silliness isn’t making things up. The nature of your comparison completely ignores the meaning of a console sale — as a vessel for software sales. Therefore it is treating hardware sales as the end goal.

”Years to come” is a ways off if you’re intent on carrying on with this nonsensical comparison on a weekly basis. And again you are misrepresenting the meaning of hardware sales by claiming hardware revisions will give the Switch an “advantage” by selling to repeat customers. Selling three consoles to one person is no better than selling one console to that person in the long run. A new model can revitalize interest in a console, but repeat sales does not increase the userbase. This is why I say you are treating hardware sales as the be-all end-all.

It's one aspect of the market that can be analysised.  Not every comparison has to revolve around revenue or profits. It's just a straightforward comparison looking at the actual number of consoles sold vs their predecessors.  

 

Again I agree that revenue and software is more important.  

 

@Rol pays for itself and then some. 



the_dengle on 26 September 2017
Kerotan said:

It's one aspect of the market that can be analysised.  Not every comparison has to revolve around revenue or profits. It's just a straightforward comparison looking at the actual number of consoles sold vs their predecessors.  

 

Again I agree that revenue and software is more important.  

 

@Rol pays for itself and then some. 

If it’s just about hardware isolated from all other aspects of the company, why not count NES and SNES Classic sales? Two new home consoles from Nintendo sold alongside the Switch.



couchmonkey on 26 September 2017

Why argue so much about what "kind" of console the Switch is?