this would be awesome but I keep thinking of ps4 and how hard it will be for Sony to reach that much
Do you think this will happen? | |||
Yes | 112 | 29.17% | |
No | 189 | 49.22% | |
Not sure | 60 | 15.63% | |
I will not make a prediction | 23 | 5.99% | |
Total: | 384 |
this would be awesome but I keep thinking of ps4 and how hard it will be for Sony to reach that much
pleaserecycle said:
I agree. They're running out of flagship franchises within the first year and we still haven't seen solid third party support outside of ports and indie games.
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Mind you I expect the system to sell very well, but 130 is asking for a lot. I don't see PS4 getting to 130 either unless Sony extends its lifecycle to like 10 years.
Wii and DS had the massive benefit of being able to tap into casual gamers before Apple and Google came and cannibalized the market with a superior product for that demo.
Switch doesn't really have that though, we've seen that ARMS and 1,2 Switch while selling "OK" are only doing that ... "OK" sales. These are no where near the break out type hits that Brain Training or Wii Sports exhibited even very early on largely because the market for that type of experience is owned by smart devices now.
This is something you find from a user at Vgchartz xD
Pocky Lover Boy!
2022 is too early but I expect 10 years lifespan, so > 100 mio is possible.
RolStoppable said:
Good research. Since the DS pulled it off with a worse first year than Switch will have, their prediction isn't as unreasonable as it seems at first glance.
Welcome back, Paul. I've seen a couple others of your recent posts. Good to see you back. And yes, the next few years will be glorious. |
Been playing coc for nearly 3 years solid. Max th11 with so many hours of my life wasted.
As a follow-up to my previous "what did they sell in their first 24 quarters" post:
GB: 43.51 million (Q2 1989 to Q1 1995)
PS1: 75.92 million (Q4 1994 to Q3 2000)
PS2: 101.37 million (Q1 2000 to Q4 2005)
GBA: 78.86 million (Q1 2001 to Q4 2006)
Apple has sold about 300 million ipad in about 7 years. Nintendo has their work cut out for them.
Interesting. Since it's already tracking behind PS4, what does that mean for PS4?
I don't see Switch doing DS numbers, simply because DS-level of success for a portable simply don't exist outside of Japan. Being a hybrid console, Switch's success is going to be determined on which crowd buys it more; I personally think the majority of Switch are buying it as a home console.
I'm still thinking around 80M, lifetime.
DialgaMarine said: Interesting. Since it's already tracking behind PS4, what does that mean for PS4? I don't see Switch doing DS numbers, simply because DS-level of success for a portable simply don't exist outside of Japan. Being a hybrid console, Switch's success is going to be determined on which crowd buys it more; I personally think the majority of Switch are buying it as a home console. I'm still thinking around 80M, lifetime. |
You do realize that, as of two fiscal quarters, PS4 tracks ahead of every console ever, including PS2 and Nintendo DS? That's hardly a metric for gauging how well Switch will sell versus PS4 in the long run. PS4 had the absolute strongest start of any console, but it never quite reached the heights of PS2 or even PS1 peak sales (22.5 and 21.6 million in a year, respectively,) let alone the peaks of DS or Wii (31.2 and 26.0 million).
I'm not saying that Switch will do DS numbers, but judging its long-term potential based on PS4's launch sales is absurd.