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Forums - Sales Discussion - Credit Suisse Lifts Nintendo Rating to Outperform, Predicts 130 Million Switch Units Sold by 2022

 

Do you think this will happen?

Yes 112 29.17%
 
No 189 49.22%
 
Not sure 60 15.63%
 
I will not make a prediction 23 5.99%
 
Total:384
AngryLittleAlchemist on 18 September 2017
DialgaMarine said:
Interesting. Since it's already tracking behind PS4, what does that mean for PS4?

I don't see Switch doing DS numbers, simply because DS-level of success for a portable simply don't exist outside of Japan. Being a hybrid console, Switch's success is going to be determined on which crowd buys it more; I personally think the majority of Switch are buying it as a home console.

I'm still thinking around 80M, lifetime.


Pretty sure even at it's worst PS4 didn't have nearly the stock issues of the Switch. 

This clearly won't happen though. 105m at most



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Slarvax on 18 September 2017

I don't know about this one.



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KLAMarine on 18 September 2017

Seems a bit too optimistic. We'll see...



Cloudman on 18 September 2017

I have my doubts too, but it would be pretty great if it did end up selling that well. I think at least selling a little short of that would still be great.



 

              

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Slarvax on 18 September 2017

I think this will be possible if Nintendo accomplishes some things first. Obviously, fix the supply issues as soon as possible; but also release the Switch in most of the major markets (South America and China to be specific) and embrace them, and get some price parity across the world (like why is the Switch so expensive in Europe? And you bet it'll also be that expensive in China and South America).

Edit: they're showing interest in China with the MOBA game from Tencent, hopefully they keep going that way.



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

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AngryLittleAlchemist on 18 September 2017
Slarvax said:

I think this will be possibly if Nintendo accomplishes some things first. Obviously, fix the supply issues as soon as possible; but also release the Switch in most of the major markets (South America and China to be specific) and embrace them, and get some price parity across the world (like why is the Switch so expensive in Europe? And you bet it'll also be that expensive in China and South America).

Edit: they're showing interest in China with the MOBA game from Tencent, hopefully they keep going that way.

And they'd have .... hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaveeeeeeeeee to make a 2nd Zelda and a new Mario Kart. I think i'm the only one predicting that 8 Deluxe will taper off pretty quickly after 2017



Ljink96 on 18 September 2017

I like the Switch as much as the next guy but I don't see many devices getting past the 100M mark after this point. Too much competition these days.



Slarvax on 18 September 2017
AngryLittleAlchemist said:
Slarvax said:

I think this will be possibly if Nintendo accomplishes some things first. Obviously, fix the supply issues as soon as possible; but also release the Switch in most of the major markets (South America and China to be specific) and embrace them, and get some price parity across the world (like why is the Switch so expensive in Europe? And you bet it'll also be that expensive in China and South America).

Edit: they're showing interest in China with the MOBA game from Tencent, hopefully they keep going that way.

And they'd have .... hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaveeeeeeeeee to make a 2nd Zelda and a new Mario Kart. I think i'm the only one predicting that 8 Deluxe will taper off pretty quickly after 2017

It should die as soon as MK9 gets announced. 2nd Zelda depends if you count a 2D or small entry as "2nd"



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

NNID: Slarvax - Steam: Slarvax - Friend Code:  SW 7885-0552-5988

AngryLittleAlchemist on 18 September 2017
Slarvax said:
AngryLittleAlchemist said:

And they'd have .... hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhaaaaaaaaaaveeeeeeeeee to make a 2nd Zelda and a new Mario Kart. I think i'm the only one predicting that 8 Deluxe will taper off pretty quickly after 2017

It should die as soon as MK9 gets announced. 2nd Zelda depends if you count a 2D or small entry as "2nd"

It won't be 2D. It will be what is happening with Xenoblade 2 right now, a quick turn around rate. Although in this case by quick I mean late 2020 at the earliest



NintendoPie on 18 September 2017

Credit Suisse seems as insane as a Nintendo fanboy on the internet, at first. Delving into other well-performing console's first 24 quarters (thanks, StarDoor) reveals that this isn't absolutely bonkers.

Still, the Switch will not sell this much by 2022. However, I can easily see it selling below or slightly above the Wii in the same time frame. This requires Nintendo to continue to greatly invest in the Switch though, and I completely expect them too. If Nintendo decides to go all-in with the Chinese market once the Switch is budget friendly, I can see this become even more of a reality.