@Larry, Aussie was always the favourite to win the WC. Even after NZ's 5-0 whitewash. Anyway good analysis in my opinion Source. I can see that you might be right in every region.

Good post....I don't really no what will happen in NA or JP, but in Europe I expect the PS3 to be a close 2nd to the Wii this Xmas.  Although this all depends on the games coming out in Europe until the end of the year.

2008 will be IMHO a much better year for the PS3.

This will be the PS3's first Xmas, and it needs to be special. 

 I wonder if there is actually so much live even with Halo,  I mean, how many people are still out there that love Halo and don't already own a 360?  If you love Halo you love FPS and 360 is your choice.  I've been saying this for long, but after the beta started for the third installment it's proving Gears of War is technically superior.  Halo 3 has a great chance to sell like crazy the first week for the reserved and then fall like Jurassic Park 2, The Lost World did in the box office. Granted many will buy bundles with the game, but most already have the system so no extra sales. The only thing that gives the 360 a chance to beat Xbox are the multiplatform games and the weaker Sony. Other than that, X360 performance is anything but spectacular.  

About Wii, IMO the first post is biased against it. First, there is nothing besides personal wishes that can make you think that Wii will not increase sales for the holidays so the 360 can catch up, and there is no mention of Wii health or Wii Music and the many clones there will be.  Both will most probably be a super-hit in Japan, and the first has the biggest potential ever to expand the market to non-gamers worldwide, like Brain Training but addressing something we care much more about than brains, which is of course looks. 

 PS3 has the richest and most diverse catalog of AAA titles coming in the next 9 months.  It's the finest hardware of the three and frenetic software updates like the one coming out today and Home are putting it way ahead of what 360 delivers aside of just gaming.  Will it be enough to recover such a sad start?  I hope so, as I like the best machine to win.  But it might not, just as I already witnessed better machines lost to better marketed ones (Apple to PC, Amiga to Atari ST, MSX to ZX Spectrum or Commodore 64 and so on)

What annoys me the most this time is that is not that the 360 is better marketed, is that a lot of negative press has been generated against the PS3, with pseudo-truths or straight lies. A bit like when buzz was "Amiga has viruses and hangs up" (which machine didin't?) or "PCs are more powerful for serious work" just because it couldn't do any decent graphics that was supossed to mean it was a "serious" machine... just remembering makes me upset!  How can people spread and believe so trashy arguments?!  

awww, who banned larry? =(

on another note, I think mod names should be in a different colour than red, I keep thinking someone's banned when it's just a mod.

Well this is generally not wrong and I have some concerns about that supply problem too, but you forget one thing: If the Wii still sells out on Christmas, it will also still have more momentum than the competitors. Everybody would try to get a Wii and it would be the Must-Have object without that every Christmas tree is missing something.

And about the Topic: I think theSource is quite right with it's predictions, the only thing I see different is the decision in Europe, I expect it to be later than Christmas 07, maybe it won't be clear until Christmas 08. However, I expect the Wii to win at the End quite clearly in Europe and the PS3 getting second.

TheSource, Are we talking about "crucial" or "decisive"? You list some good arguments of things that have to be watched, but if you're saying that the race will be decided by March 2008 I don't agree. There will be equally crucial points in the coming years. Can the PS3 turn around? Will the Wii run out of steam early? Can the 360 break out of hardcore? You won't have conclusive answers before 2008 and 2009.

FF mmo is probably coming to 360 too. FF "relevants wings", as far as I´m concerned, is for the DS. Salewise, Gran Turismo beats everything, yes, but in that time neither Forza nor PGR were big series, and PS2 had a pretty big fanbase. Don´t be surprised if things change this time.

Nice post.  I'm going to disagree with you on a few points, however.

Worldwide, Nintendo is going to own 2007 on both the portable and console fronts.  But the real question is, when are all of last generation's owners going to switch?  Most of the Xboxers and GameCubers have moved or need to -- their systems are dead.  But PS2 owners have at least until the end of this year and maybe until the middle of next year before they begin to see a lack of new titles and must move to a new system to get their fix.  With all three of the new generation consoles costing more than their counterparts last generation, this console war is going to be more drawn out.

Japan - Mid 2008

Most Japanese gamers haven't budged for any of the new systems.  (Keep in mind that many Wii owners are not the typical gaming crowd.)  While that will change in 2007, I think we will have to wait until Playstation's heavy hitters come to bat before calling this race in Japan.  MGS4 and FFXIII will significantly increase sales helping the PS3 become a solid second place system.  The Wii will continue to do well -- similar to the PS2's performance.  And the 360 will do better than the original Xbox but not well enough to be of any real significance in Japan (less than 1M).  Sony must solidify their 2nd place position in Japan by mid next year or they will have some serious problems down the road.

North America -  Holiday 2008

The Wii keeps its momentum through the 2007 holidays but faces supply problems and a resurgent Microsoft and Sony.  As such, the Wii may not pass the 360 in the US until 2008.  Sony remains in third but the PS3's performance isn't nearly as poor as many expected (4-5M total by end of year 2007) and the PS2 gives the 360 a run for its money.  Since there's no clear victory for anyone, 2008 becomes more intense with all the consoles having a price drop during the year.  This boosts sales for all three systems and makes the 2008 holidays the most important period for this generation in the U.S.

Europe - Holiday 2008 

Similar to North America, except the Wii will easily overtake the 360 this year.  Expect the 360 and PS3 to battle it out over the 2007 holidays with the 360 barely maintaining its lead.  Without a clear winner for second place, price drops and other factors (i.e. games, services, etc.) will again make all the difference on who comes out on top in 2008.

In the end, I expect a much closer race similar to the Genesis/Super Nintendo generation than the PS2/Xbox/GC/DC one.  While Wii may get and maintain first place for much (if not all) of this generation, we'll have to wait until 2009 before we can call it.  And second place (and maybe even third) will not be all that bad.