Crucial Points in the Console War..

[Steve 3.2]

TheSource said:

What do you see as the crucial points in the console war for each region? I'll lay out my ideas to kick things off in three steps - the time period - reasons why it is crucial - and what I expect to happen.

North America: August 2007 to March 2008.

Japan: January 2007 to September 2007

Europe/Others: March 2007 to December 2007

Nice post.  I'm going to disagree with you on a few points, however.

Worldwide, Nintendo is going to own 2007 on both the portable and console fronts.  But the real question is, when are all of last generation's owners going to switch?  Most of the Xboxers and GameCubers have moved or need to -- their systems are dead.  But PS2 owners have at least until the end of this year and maybe until the middle of next year before they begin to see a lack of new titles and must move to a new system to get their fix.  With all three of the new generation consoles costing more than their counterparts last generation, this console war is going to be more drawn out.

Japan - Mid 2008

Most Japanese gamers haven't budged for any of the new systems.  (Keep in mind that many Wii owners are not the typical gaming crowd.)  While that will change in 2007, I think we will have to wait until Playstation's heavy hitters come to bat before calling this race in Japan.  MGS4 and FFXIII will significantly increase sales helping the PS3 become a solid second place system.  The Wii will continue to do well -- similar to the PS2's performance.  And the 360 will do better than the original Xbox but not well enough to be of any real significance in Japan (less than 1M).  Sony must solidify their 2nd place position in Japan by mid next year or they will have some serious problems down the road.

North America -  Holiday 2008

The Wii keeps its momentum through the 2007 holidays but faces supply problems and a resurgent Microsoft and Sony.  As such, the Wii may not pass the 360 in the US until 2008.  Sony remains in third but the PS3's performance isn't nearly as poor as many expected (4-5M total by end of year 2007) and the PS2 gives the 360 a run for its money.  Since there's no clear victory for anyone, 2008 becomes more intense with all the consoles having a price drop during the year.  This boosts sales for all three systems and makes the 2008 holidays the most important period for this generation in the U.S.

Europe - Holiday 2008 

Similar to North America, except the Wii will easily overtake the 360 this year.  Expect the 360 and PS3 to battle it out over the 2007 holidays with the 360 barely maintaining its lead.  Without a clear winner for second place, price drops and other factors (i.e. games, services, etc.) will again make all the difference on who comes out on top in 2008.

In the end, I expect a much closer race similar to the Genesis/Super Nintendo generation than the PS2/Xbox/GC/DC one.  While Wii may get and maintain first place for much (if not all) of this generation, we'll have to wait until 2009 before we can call it.  And second place (and maybe even third) will not be all that bad.