
This is an extremely early WIP... so please excuse the messiness at the moment lol. But after having spent the past couple of hours compiling all known sales/shipment data for NS1/NS2 first-/second-party releases, I have come up with this WIP graph! I'm trying to better gauge how well the current NS2 releases have done commercially. [NS1 software only goes up Q4FY2019 because late-gen releases will see very different sales patterns than early-gen.]
From what I can tell: (i) DKBananza should comfortably hit at minimum 8 million LTD. (The next mainline 3D Mario will hurt long-term legs.) (ii) Pokopia should hit at least 10 million LTD assuming it maintains decent legs (at least 1 million per quarter) over the next year. (iii) Kirby Air Riders could see anywhere from 3 to 5 million LTD.
The trickiest part about looking at this data, however, is that NS1 software is expected to have much stronger legs for early gen software than NS2. The two main reasons IMO being (1.) NS1 was not backwards compatible with previous Nintendo hardware's library nor was there any sort of virtual console/NSOnline pumping out retro titles every month, and (2.) the lack of strong third-party presence on NS1 until 2019/2020. This relative weakness is seen most notably with DKBananza only selling through 0.76 million during the holiday quarter, which — for context — is well below was BotW, MK8Deluxe, Splatoon 2, and Mario Odyssey did during any given quarter (yes, BotW significantly outperformed DK's holiday even during the early- and latter-summer months) within the first year of launch.