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Forums - Sales - Switch vs Ps4 - Who will win 2017 WW

Jumpin on 31 May 2017

Switch, it's hot, the PS4 has peaked and is winding down.



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Qwark on 31 May 2017
SpokenTruth said:
Qwark said:

The same conjecture as saying Nintendo can produce and ship more than 10 million units in 2017.

Uh, that's not conjecture.  That's an actual plan.  And the production was just increased to 18 million during the fiscal year.

Conjecture is basically a hunch based on limited data.

Still it isn't a fact that Nintendo is able to produce, ship and sell 17 million units in 2017 to beat the current trajectory the PS4. Which is pretty flat based on yoy sales. If Nintendo manages to produce 18 million units by March 2018. It still won't be enough to hit the 17 or even 16 million mark sold by 31st December 2017. So everyone who is claiming the Switch can outsell the PS4. Is guessing that Nintendo  is able to produce and sell enough Switches to hit the 17 million mark before December the 31st.



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ghettoglamour on 01 June 2017

Is this a joke thread?



Game of the year 2017 so far:

5. Resident Evil VII
4. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe
3. Uncharted: The Lost Legacy
2. Horizon Zero Dawn
1. Super Mario Odyssey

slab_of_bacon on 01 June 2017

It's a launch year for the Switch with some great titles. It will be close but it's hard for me to imagine the Playstation 4 keeping up with that even with the Playstation 4 Pro sales included.



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Qwark on 01 June 2017
SpokenTruth said:
Qwark said:

Still it isn't a fact that Nintendo is able to produce, ship and sell 17 million units in 2017 to beat the current trajectory the PS4. Which is pretty flat based on yoy sales. If Nintendo manages to produce 18 million units by March 2018. It still won't be enough to hit the 17 or even 16 million mark sold by 31st December 2017. So everyone who is claiming the Switch can outsell the PS4. Is guessing that Nintendo  is able to produce and sell enough Switches to hit the 17 million mark before December the 31st.

But that's not what you said the conjecture was.  You said, "The same conjecture as saying Nintendo can produce and ship more than 10 million units in 2017."

Wasn't that the plan when I made that post I know they want to make 18 million by March the 31st now. Which I estimate still won't be enough to rival the 2017 sales of PS4. Anyhow I still think the PS4 is going to win since it sales are pretty much flat yoy. Unless Nintendo ups production to 22.5 million by March the 31st.



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Kristof81 on 01 June 2017

I'm guessing Switch, but it's going to be close... and you should've put a poll



VideoGameAccountant on 02 June 2017
Miguel_Zorro said:
Let's assume the following:
- The PS4 sales are flat in 2017 compared to 2015 and 2016 at 17 million. They're currently running really close to those two years.
- The Switch sells every unit that Nintendo can produce in the 2017 calendar year.
- Nintendo hits their ramped up production target of 18 million units by March 31, 2017
- That of the 18 million units already sold, Nintendo will have sold 3.5 million by the end of April 2016, leaving 14.5 million units left to be produced.
- Those 14.5 million units will be produced evenly month over month, meaning 1.2 million units will be produced and sold each month. That's ~10 million over the months from May through December.
- 10 million + 13.5 million = 13.5 million units sold for the Switch in 2017

The PS4 outsells the Switch comfortably in 2017, driven by stronger PS4 sales over the October-December months.

There are two assumptions from those that say Sony will win

 

  1. Sony sales wont decline
  2. Nintendo can't produce enough Switch units
Both of these I think are pretty weak. Enough has been said about the second point as Nintendo is ramping production to Wii levels. But on the first, why should we think that Sony won't decline. Remember we aren't in the summer months yet. These are the worst time for gaming generally. The PS4 is in its fourth year, so we should expect some decline. Moreover, Sony has benefited from the lack of any competition. Almost all of the increase in PS4's software sales vs PS3 is from the decline in XBox software sales. Hardware is similar. Sony doesn't have the benefit of being the only person in the market. Nintendo is real competition. With this in mind, why should we expect that Sony can keep its earlier sales volume up? As a note, everyone says "Oh, well, Nintendo got to sell exactly what they say," but everyone assumes Sony will do that. Why can we not assume Sony will not make projections. 

 



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iNathan on 02 June 2017
VideoGameAccountant said:
Miguel_Zorro said:
Let's assume the following:
- The PS4 sales are flat in 2017 compared to 2015 and 2016 at 17 million. They're currently running really close to those two years.
- The Switch sells every unit that Nintendo can produce in the 2017 calendar year.
- Nintendo hits their ramped up production target of 18 million units by March 31, 2017
- That of the 18 million units already sold, Nintendo will have sold 3.5 million by the end of April 2016, leaving 14.5 million units left to be produced.
- Those 14.5 million units will be produced evenly month over month, meaning 1.2 million units will be produced and sold each month. That's ~10 million over the months from May through December.
- 10 million + 13.5 million = 13.5 million units sold for the Switch in 2017

The PS4 outsells the Switch comfortably in 2017, driven by stronger PS4 sales over the October-December months.

There are two assumptions from those that say Sony will win

 

  1. Sony sales wont decline
  2. Nintendo can't produce enough Switch units
Both of these I think are pretty weak. Enough has been said about the second point as Nintendo is ramping production to Wii levels. But on the first, why should we think that Sony won't decline. Remember we aren't in the summer months yet. These are the worst time for gaming generally. The PS4 is in its fourth year, so we should expect some decline. Moreover, Sony has benefited from the lack of any competition. Almost all of the increase in PS4's software sales vs PS3 is from the decline in XBox software sales. Hardware is similar. Sony doesn't have the benefit of being the only person in the market. Nintendo is real competition. With this in mind, why should we expect that Sony can keep its earlier sales volume up? As a note, everyone says "Oh, well, Nintendo got to sell exactly what they say," but everyone assumes Sony will do that. Why can we not assume Sony will not make projections. 

 

They will, Ps4 isn't slowing down, Europe loves Playstation. 



Bofferbrauer2 on 05 June 2017
John2290 said:
Ps4 is already selling more. Switch will fall weekly until October. I doubt it'll hit over 200k between now and then, probably sink to less than 100k.

Lol wut?

It's still supply constrained and if the splatoon long term sales boost of the Wii U is any indication for it's successor, it won't drop anytime soon in sales.

Seriously if Nintendo could keep up with the demand in Japan it would already sell about 50k weekly (if not more!), so to reach less than 100k Switch would have to sell Wii U levels outside of Japan



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

Bofferbrauer2 on 08 June 2017

Time to update the OP



The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/