It seems we're at a point in time where the traditional console cycle is under fire. Both Sony and MS have come with incremental upgrades while Nintendo is going mobile with their console hardware. Mobile phones could easily include a way to stream to tv as well allowing them to catch up and surpass the Switch. Meanwhile digital distribution and streaming are believed to be the end goal. However the goals of VR are directly at odds with game streaming.

Traditional console cycle:
Pro: Provides a clean break from old hardware allowing devs to focus on 1 hardware spec, games get the most out of the hardware.
Neg: Resets the user base to zero, games may not carry over to next gen.

Regularly upgraded hardware:
Pro: Keep you userbase, full BC, provide improved specs for hardcore gamers and early adopters.
Neg: The oldest hardware that needs to be supported will determine what games can do, more work for developers, QA on many models.

Mobile consoles / phones:
Pro: Play where ever when ever you want.
Neg: Highest price/performance ratio, limited performance compared to (physically) bigger consoles.

PC Gaming:
Pro: Fully customizable, pay what you want, the most and cheapest games.
Neg: No guaranteed base performance, not as easy to use, generally higher price/performance ratio.

Streaming:
Pro: Play on any device, always have the latest version of the games at your fingertips.
Neg: Lag, lower IQ, always dependent on what the service currently offers.

Standalone VR/AR headsets:
Pro: No lag, no wires, can still stream to TV as well.
Neg: Expensive.


Why VR is not compatible with streaming:

https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2017/05/09/whats-next-for-vr/

McGuire said that to match the capabilities of human vision, future graphics systems need to be able to process 100,000 megapixels per second, up from the 450 megapixels per second they’re capable of today.

Doing so will help push the vastly higher display resolutions required and push the rendering latency down from current thresholds of about 20 milliseconds towards a goal of latency under one millisecond — approaching the maximum perceptive abilities of humans.

Any added lag from streaming or even a wireless connection would hamper that goal of reaching 1ms latency.


So what will we see in the near future. For now I think ps5 will still happen and be a clean break from ps4, although the chance of full BC is high this time. I'm not so sure of MS, they might go the upgrade route. However at some point VR will gain enough traction to start competing with on screen gaming. Will it still be tethered to a console/PC, or will gaming split into standalone headsets next to streaming for traditional gaming. Or will mobile phones take the path of the Switch and become the next consoles. Or will consoles stick around for a couple more decades, perhaps ushering in holographic gaming at some point.

Thoughts?

The future of gaming will be varied as it is now and I prefer it that way. Everyone can find use their prefered way as long as it's around. Of course, the platforms will change or die out because of waning interest by consumers. There's no reason to consolidate all of the ways you can play video games into a single platform or method.

Isn't that exactly what the PS4pro is? A compliment? Cause I really don't think it was ever designed to be a replacement.

Anyway to OP, I agree with him; traditional console cycle, but with an "extended" period of previous generation support. Basically, I expect we see the full compliment of  PS5 games also released on the PS4/PS4pro for around 2 years. And then in the third year we start to see PS5 exclusive games.

Everything else still has its place, having one doesn't have to mean the others die. There will always be a place for nintendo's "mobile" approach but that will still also always pale in comparison to what the dedicated home consoles would be able to do which will in turn shape their respective libraries and audience.

Yet what about diminishing returns? Won't we get to a point where a Switch like console looks pretty much the same as a dedicated box? Although a dedicated box will still be cheaper without the screen included.

Ofcourse as long as console makers are bringing the exclusives to justify their systems, people will buy them. Exclusives will only become more important with diminishing returns. Yet those exclusives don't neccesarily need to be tied to a piece of hardware, MS already switched to making windows 10 exclusives. Will Sony be able to offer streaming of PS5 games from day 1?

Supporting older hardware was usually done by multiplatform titles. First party exclusives are there to sell the new hardware. Releasing ps5 with full support for PS4/PRO for 2 years will start the next gen as slow as PS4 pro sales are now. I expect a clean break for first party software. I also don't think PS5 games will be streamed at launch but you never know. Is PS Now going anywhere?

Dedicated systems will in my opinion always have their place, as they are on average the easiest platforms for people to play on. PC will also always have a place in gaming, being the one platform practically everyone has to have in modern society. As for handheld gaming, it seems to be losing ground in favour of mobile gaming, although I personally couldn't care less about playing on mobile.

I also don't see VR becoming huge unless its cost goes down significantly, and again, I don't personally care all that much about VR. For the rest, who knows. Streaming services will likely become more popular to a certain extent at least, as demonstrated by Netflix and others like it.

Everything will end up on PC. Microsoft will have their games playable on all windows devices from tablets, to PCs, to laptops with scaling to the specs of that machine similar to how the performance of Switch games in home to portable mode. Also expect MS to sell more windows systems and call them xboxs. I also see them making xbox live something that will need to be payed for on PC because it brings in a lot of money and can't see them ditching that xbox live money for a while.

Nintendo I think they will make more tablet like systems in the future that can be docked and played with better performance on TVs. Also could see them having a PC service with monthly fees to pay games from their older consoles.

Sony I think will try to get PSNOW on as many systems as they can. I could see them continue making consoles for a while and then transition to a download able PSNOW games and making games on PC.

Streaming will become more popular as fiber optic or similar ultra high speed internet gains adoption over the next decade.

I think eventually though, the chips in smartphones will become so powerful that they'll be able to stream high end graphics to any nearby display and all you'll need is a Bluetooth controller to play, many people will stop buying dedicated home consoles when that happens.

You don't need powerful chips to stream games. Just meh specs and good wifi.

What I mean is the average smartphone will be able to process visuals on par with the PS4 or better fairly easily at some point, which is a level of visual fidelity that's "good enough" for most people, I think they will simply just run games off their phone. That and most displays in the future will be smart displays capable of receiving a wireless signal from a phone. You'll just walk into any room and be able to beam whatever game you want to play onto whatever display happens to be nearby. Pick up a Bluetooth controller and play. 

Yes, that's what I'm thinking too. Phones have already replaced cameras, mp3 players and gps systems. Ofcourse all those still exist, so likely consoles will continue too with a smaller audience. Phones still cost a lot more than a console though. So perhaps consoles will become kids toys again while M rated games migrate to mobile. GTA 7 on mobiles that can beam to tv as well will put sales through the roof. Maybe with a bluetooth joycon like controller that can snap to any phone to play on the move.