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Forums - Sales Discussion - Nintendo has a realistic shot at returning to #1 this fiscal year - RESULT: Nintendo back on top (21.45m), Sony second (19m+)

 

Which company will sell the most consoles in the fiscal year ending March 2018?

Sony (by more than 3m) 260 27.84%
 
Sony (between 2-3m more) 52 5.57%
 
Sony (between 1-2m more) 73 7.82%
 
Virtually tied (within 1m of each other) 133 14.24%
 
Nintendo (between 1-2m more) 150 16.06%
 
Nintendo (between 2-3m more) 59 6.32%
 
Nintendo (by more than 3m) 104 11.13%
 
Microsoft (seriously) 15 1.61%
 
Microsoft (for the lulz) 30 3.21%
 
Scoreboard 58 6.21%
 
Total:934
Zones on 31 October 2017
Louie said:

But that's how it works! I worked for this site back in 2007 and I still have graphs on my computer showing yearly market share and that's exactly how you collect and interpret the data. You can't just exclude the PS2 from yearly shipments because it's "last gen". We don't exclude iPhone 6s sales from yearly iPhone shipments, either. 

The data provided here on this topic is factual, however, it's the narrative the OP so desperately tries to push that's misleading.

By the way, iPhone is not exactly the same as gaming devices due to robust backward and (sort of) forward compatibility of iOS/iPhone. 3DS is a self-contained platform which is about to approach its irrelevancy.

- 20 million iPhone 7 being sold in 2018 equals to 20 million potential new App Store / iTunes users in the eyes of new app developers.
- 6 million 3DS getting sold in 2018 equals to almost 0 potential new Nintendo / third-party users in the eyes of new game developers.

RolStoppable said:

I addressed your point and your argument doesn't hold water.

It's (a hypothetical) 2007 and Xbox 360 is beating PS3 severely and you make a thread declaring Sony a winner by combining PS3 and PS2 numbers against Xbox 360. 

See how far that would get you!

You definitely have a sound argument on your hand here, so keep it up.



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superchunk on 31 October 2017
RolStoppable said:
superchunk said:
I miss so many threads now lol.

Switch will push Nintendo over this fiscal year and next.

2018 will see Nintendo demonstrate that Switch is now their primary / only hardware line as major "portable" first party titles are announced for Switch. Additionally, Switch will get those common 3rd party titles now that each company has had time to 1) enhance their tools for Switch 2) see Switch succeed in the market 3) plan for Switch support in their budgets.

Sometime in 2019 this will be come a conversation again when Sony is looking at PS5 and Nintendo is looking at a new updated Switch of some sort. (This goes back to my long-standing statement that Consoles have been moving to follow a mobile approach to new hardware.)

Really, superchunk? Haven't you been burned enough by your belief that operating systems will determine the winner of console generations?

You are almost on the same level as the people who thought that Nintendo would put Android on their console based on the belief that Nintendo will target smartphone gamers with NX.

How does my OS discussion relate to hardware replacement cycles? Are you becoming senile?

Also, Nintendo has used some Android functionality in the back-end. However, it did not lead to a larger OS varient similar to Amazon's Fire OS. Though, I still think it is a miss in Nintendo's part to bridge its mobile aspirations with console including instant mega-app support. But that is a different topic than my point in bold.

Bolded point is that console manufacturers are moving to a more constant revision of hardware that is continually building on a similar architecture. This is self-evident with PS4/XBone this gen, 3DS/2DS/*new*DS this gen, and what I'm betting we'll see with Switch going forward. This concept is completely opposite of the fully new/different console architecture found in each new "generation".



Lawlight on 31 October 2017
Cubedramirez said:
Nintendo changed the entire industry with the Switch. You're going to see a refocus coming from Sony and Microsoft on leveraging the differences between the switch and their consoles. Which, frankly is resolution when it comes down to it.

Sony is not going to refocus anything. The Switch isn’t putting a dent in the PS4’s sales.



Ryng on 31 October 2017

Switch success was unexpect for most people, but what really makes me shocked is 3DS.
I really, REALLY did not expect it to do so well, not even with a new version.

I can see Nintendo ship 3 million 3DS next quarter, and then 700k in Q1 2018, for a total of over 6.5 million 3DS for the quarter, while Switch i think they will ship 7.5 million next quarter and 3.5 million in Q1 2018 for a total of almost 16 million. I think they are going to surpass both expectations, and ship a total of almost 22.5 million.

For PS4 i can see something like 9 million this quarter and then 2.5 million in Q1 2018, so i think Sony prediction of 19 million is very spot on, but i would not be surprised if they ship more than that in the end (like 20 million, as they did last FY). Even so, i really don't see PS4 ship more than Switch and 3DS combined for the next 2 quarters...

They will both have an amazing FY, that's for sure, both will do better than the original expectation, expecially Nintendo.



LimaBean01 on 31 October 2017
Slarvax said:
radishhead said:

10 million is a hugely conservative estimate. Nintendo lowballed it so they can show off how they beat it later. You're mad if you think they'll fall short.

The Switch and its success has made me have fun doing math. So, Nintendo expected to sell 2m Switches in the launch month, and ended up selling 2.74m. Meaning they sold 37% more Switches than they expected.

If we assume the same happens for FY2017, they should end up selling 13.7m Switches. I can see that.

wow, this was a very close estimate, considering they upped it to 14 million



https://open.spotify.com/artist/2OUU85T4C3aPPftJhjxEVw?si=Dlo0co2-QKyGJv2cV50X2g

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Slarvax on 31 October 2017
LimaBean01 said:
Slarvax said:

The Switch and its success has made me have fun doing math. So, Nintendo expected to sell 2m Switches in the launch month, and ended up selling 2.74m. Meaning they sold 37% more Switches than they expected.

If we assume the same happens for FY2017, they should end up selling 13.7m Switches. I can see that.

wow, this was a very close estimate, considering they upped it to 14 million

Math: it just works.



Bet with bluedawgs: I say Switch will outsell PS4 in 2018, he says PS4 will outsell Switch. He's now permabanned, but the bet will remain in my sig.

NNID: Slarvax - Steam: Slarvax - Friend Code:  SW 7885-0552-5988

AnmolRed on 31 October 2017

It's great to see both Sony and Nintendo doing so well ! Though I think holidays and price drop of PS4 will be the deciding factor



Green098 on 31 October 2017
Slarvax said:
LimaBean01 said:

wow, this was a very close estimate, considering they upped it to 14 million

Math: it just works.

Now the question is... are they going to up, the upped numbers?



LimaBean01 on 31 October 2017
Green098 said:
Slarvax said:

Math: it just works.

Now the question is... are they going to up, the upped numbers?

by 37%?



https://open.spotify.com/artist/2OUU85T4C3aPPftJhjxEVw?si=Dlo0co2-QKyGJv2cV50X2g

NintendoPie on 31 October 2017

The mind tricks people have to play on themselves to be able to live in a world where Nintendo is thriving is quite amusing.