| RolStoppable said: Switch is going to sell more than 100m units. |
Even Rol's on the shrooms.
This is going to be a fun thread to look back at in a couple of years.
I would like to see a theoretical breakdown year by year for those predicting 100m+, The Switch will probably be succeeded fairly quickly, I'd expect the next device on the market by the end of 2022 at the latest.
Safiir said:
1. True. At an increased price, but still true. 2. So far there's nothing but Zelda. You may argue all you want about promised content in the future, but as of right now that's not really true. 3. See 2. 4. Correct, but then again...was vita really a competition to 3ds? Sure, right now there's really no competition, not even theoretically, but I still don't believe vita took a significant amount of sales from 3ds in order to make this current handheld monopoly a significantly better place for switch. 5. Nothing has gotten better either. People's focus did not suddenly shift towards handheld gaming. If anything mobile gaming is still very much growing.
Conclusion: If Nintendo somehow manages to produce the same support for Switch as they did for 3ds despite the obvious increase in development cost and time then it should see similar sales as the 3ds. If it doesn't - it won't. |
Wait, I'm confused.. Nothing but Zelda? I could have SWORN I had Binding of Isaac After birth and Has Been Heroes coming in the mail, both of which I'm very excited to play.
"We hold these truths to be self-evident - all men and women created by the, go-you know.. you know the thing!" - Joe Biden
| F.Scofield said: if nintendo play the right cards it can easily surpass ps4. |
64m 3DS owners, most of which are probably also Wii U owners.
Plenty of people collected mulitple versions of 3DS's because of differnt skins/special editions ect, which is unlikely to happend for switch (imo)(price).
If Nintendo's market doesnt shrink, they should atleast go over 65m with the Switch.
I think PS4 is going over 100m though, and Im not sure the switch will (yet).
We need to wait and see what sales are like in 2018 for it.
people predicting 100 million and some even suggesting it can surpass the ps4? well going to be a fun thread in a few years
Barkley said:
Even Rol's on the shrooms. This is going to be a fun thread to look back at in a couple of years. I would like to see a theoretical breakdown year by year for those predicting 100m+, The Switch will probably be succeeded fairly quickly, I'd expect the next device on the market by the end of 2022 at the latest. |
The funny thing is, when I made my thread predicting that the Switch would do 100+ millions back in november, nobody agreed with me.I mean, they argued with, but people thought it was way out of reach.Now Im not the only crazy one XD
Predicting year by year sales is much harder than simply predicting lifetime, because some consoles are late bloomers or sell incredibly well at the start and lose steam after, but if I had to guess, it would be something like this:
Year 1:10-12 millions
Year 2:15-17 millions
Year 3: around 20 millions
Year 4:Around 20 millions
Year 5:around 15 millions
And the rest on the years it has left until production ends, probably with year 6 being around 8 to 10 millions.
My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.
https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1
2017: 10 million
2018: 20 million (I expect a revision and/or a price cut)
2019: 22 million
2020: 18 million
2021: 14 million
2022: 8 million
2023: 2 million
2024: 500k
| Nautilus said: Year 1:10-12 millions Year 2:15-17 millions Year 3: around 20 millions Year 4:Around 20 millions Year 5:around 15 millions And the rest on the years it has left until production ends, probably with year 6 being around 8 to 10 millions. |
Mmmmm... I don't see the Switch ever doing 20m years.
If I was to give my most optimistic year by year breakdown it'd probably be this:
2017 - 9 Million
2018 - 14 Million
2019 - 17 Million
2020 - 15 Million
2021 - 14 Million
2022 - 10 Million
2023 - 6 Million
Around 85 Million Lifetime, and that's what I think is about the highest feasible sales, I don't expect it to do that well. That's also assuming the Switch succesor launches Holiday 2022, it could possibly be Holiday 2021 or even March 2022...
I'm going to say between 45m and 75m. I know that's kinda the vague, huge margin to claim. It will definitively sell more than WiiU, not sure about outselling 3DS but it certainly has a shot at it, no chance of it of selling as much as the Wii did.
Barkley said:
Mmmmm... I don't see the Switch ever doing 20m years. If I was to give my most optimistic year by year breakdown it'd probably be this: 2017 - 9 Million 2018 - 14 Million 2019 - 17 Million 2020 - 15 Million 2021 - 14 Million 2022 - 10 Million 2023 - 6 Million
Around 85 Million Lifetime, and that's what I think is about the highest feasible sales, I don't expect it to do that well. That's also assuming the Switch succesor launches Holiday 2022, it could possibly be Holiday 2021 or even March 2022... |
Either way, its excellent sales, so I would be happy with any of the scenarios.
My (locked) thread about how difficulty should be a decision for the developers, not the gamers.
https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=241866&page=1
DarthMetalliCube said:
Wait, I'm confused.. Nothing but Zelda? I could have SWORN I had Binding of Isaac After birth and Has Been Heroes coming in the mail, both of which I'm very excited to play. |
You also have snipperclips, 1,2 switch, bomberman, snake pass etc. None of which are system sellers. I'm not sure why I even have to explain this. For the software to mean anything regarding the sales of a console it has to be a system seller. Not obscure games that almost noone buys or low-profile third party games. I'm not saying that a non-system seller game is a bad one, or that it's not a positive to have it on the platform. But in the context of predicting sales the only game currently available is Zelda.
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