Wow, that's low. This post will be dug up in the future. Not so far future I guess, probably already around 2018. Wanna bet on that?

By the way, this thread needs johnlucas.

40-50m I guess if it won't have any revisions. It won't outsell PS4 definitely and probably Xbox One as well.

The most powerful dedicated handheld of all time is underpowered? Technology is weak? What did you expect? A refrigerator with a two ton heatshield crunching CERN particle data? It's a handheld. Stop embarrassing yourself. Had this been the new Vita you would be crying for joy. 

You ask for too much, in the current situation it simply needs three things to be justified:

1) lifetime overall HW + SW profit > 3DS and Wii U combined
2) HW sales > 3DS and Wii U combined
3) SW sales > 3DS and Wii U combined

People considering money and nothing else could think condition 1 would be enough, but points 2 and 3 are of the essence too, as they mean market relevance and brand recognition, they justify 1st party games development and they attract 3rd party devs too.

Anyhow, considering how much 3DS can still sell if they don't kill it abruptly, this still means that Switch should sell at least 90M lifetime to become a real success. Ninty can financially afford lower sales, as long as it's profitable, but it would lose market share and relevance and plummet again into the gray and dull situation it was suffering just before Wii and DS.

Wii and DS combined sold over 250 million. Wii U and 3DS sold 78 million (let's say 80 million minimum by the time the generation ends). Given that Wii U was a dud, and the fact that PSP and Vita combined sold over 90 million (and it is unlikely there will be another competitor for the same space this time around), it really is not unreasonable to expect 120 million. Remember that there was a lot of overlap of users in Nintendo platforms (e.g. people with both DS and Wii, Wii U and 3DS) which will no longer be possible. Anything less than 120 million and Nintendo will end up cannibalising its own marketshare.

I am not saying that Nintendo should (or will) go back to the glory days of Wii + DS. The 250+ million ship has really sailed.

But expecting half that, in a market without a direct competitor, with a platform that merges both your form factors, is really not unreasonable.

I am not saying it will sell 120 million by the way. I feel it will get stuck at the 60-80 million range -- and that, in the long term, is not good news for Nintendo.

60 millions switch 2017/300$, 60 millions mini-switch, only portable 2020/150$/screen 5", without joy-con ... And 50 millions more if Nintendo make a switch only for home, compatible with tablet (hdmi, usb-c, streaming wifi), 2022/100$...

Oh, and we agree totally that profits is what matters. But both DS and Wii were very cheap to produce, and made tons of profit. Switch's profit margins are nowhere near as good.

I believe that Nintendo is going to turn this into a family of systems eventually. When the Switch Micro (plays all games, but at 360p undocked / 480p docked), and the Switch Mega (4K version -- perhaps in the form of a supercharged dock) get released, Nintendo will have an excellent shot at reaching well north of 100 million.

The potential is certainly there. I am just sceptical because Nintendo tends to know how to shoot themselves in the foot more than others.

I give it 130M and a long shelve life, thought the last years only as a pure handheld without a dock anymore. This includes 1 or 2 mid-gen upgrades and a plethora of different versions.

Edit: Where's the poll?

And a table to compare the different predictions?

Yes, I get your point, mine simply is that considering how low 3DS, and much worse Wii U fell compared to DS and Wii, outperforming them in both profits and sales numbers is the BARE MINIMUM Ninty must achieve to be considered starting recovering from a really ugly fall, but yes adding the factors you consider, it should do significantly more, particularly considering that the fall was horrible in home consoles, that unlike portables actually aren't damaged by mobiles.