More than 3DS
I think like 60 million is probably a safe rough guess.
I've heard some people claiming like 30 or 40 million, but that seems insanely conservative considering I am fairly certain that Nintendo will committ to either having the Switch be their main handheld offering OR will repackage the Switch to not include the dock or something (not sure about a micro version due to the unlikihood in Joycon size being changed, although I guess they could make the screen less wide (?)).
Assuming Nintendo is comfortable with not releasing another handheld (which seems likely at this point imo, otherwise the whole point of doing a hybrid would be useless), its hard to not see a mainline Nintendo HANDHELD with POKEMON and MONSTER HUNTER releasing on it not breaking like 60 million or so.
the real question mark to me is whether or not it will go well beyond that or not. I think a lot will depend on Nintendo potentially moneyhatting some third party developers for a few key exclusives AND Nintendo pushing their first party developments teams much harder than before (cough Nintendo hire more people, you've been mega slow at catching up to the speed that current gen games take to develop)
After 3DS die, and switch production costs start to fall down, and suposing theyll sell switch for 200$ switch and dockless version for 150$, and if we have 4 big hitters like zelda, mk, splatoon and 3D mario every year, i think it can manage to sell 100M.
But I doubt in the speed the price will fall, and keep the weigth os the games every year, I stick with 70M.
19 M-26M. 35 millions maximum (1/2 of 3ds sales).
This thread seems like a copy-paste of the old WiiU predictions, with all these over-optimistic "predictions".
"It will sell more than wii"
"It looks like a Wii and ds combined together !"
It's just impossible for the switch to sell more than 3ds, let's be realistic here.
I expect a good 1st year with 8/10 M sold, then a hard fall after except in japan.

RolStoppable said:
There it is, the analysis of Switch with home functionality and handheld capabilities as separate entities. Other mistakes in leo-j's post: 1. The 3DS is going to finish with lifetime sales a lot closer to half of the DS than a third of the DS. 2. The 3DS killed the Vita. If smart devices could kill dedicated gaming hardware, the 3DS would be dead too. 3. Mobile gaming is proportionally the most popular in Japan, but in the same country handhelds are proportionally also the most popular. That alone already points towards viable co-existence, but anyone who has an understanding of the control inputs also recognizes that mobile isn't going to replace dedicated gaming. 4. An implied assumption that the 3DS was perfectly executed and didn't have any problems on its own. |
This is the biggest one, in my view.
Had Nintendo executed the 3DS' launch better than it did, it would be closing in on GBA/PSP levels right now.
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| Namiirei said: 19 M-26M. 35 millions maximum (1/2 of 3ds sales).
This thread seems like a copy-paste of the old WiiU predictions, with all these over-optimistic "predictions". "It will sell more than wii" "It looks like a Wii and ds combined together !" It's just impossible for the switch to sell more than 3ds, let's be realistic here. I expect a good 1st year with 8/10 M sold, then a hard fall after except in japan. |
How exactly is it impossible to sell more than 3DS when it's going to be the only portable on the market for years to come?