That's like saying that the people that could have bought MK8 on Wii U for less than it now is on Switch will still buy it on the Switch without any other reason, you realize that , right ? MK8D will be the game that will make people think "Oh, I can buy the Switch with two great games", nothing less, nothing more...

LMAO anything for who ? Activision employees ?

Yeah of course it will not remain over 100%.  That is just something to put the demand into perspective as those who are buying a Switch in the future will most likely get this game as well due to it not being available anywhere else and all of the critical acclaim it has received.

Right now it is still the go to hot game to own for a console  that is constantly selling out.  Even when Mario drops, those who get the Switch during the holiday will likely get both games.  As sales for the game do eventually slow, it is also a given that Breath of the Wild will have amazing legs.

The way I see it, Nintendo would really have to drop the ball for it not to reach 10 mil.  I think your assessment of Nintendo reaching 40 mil sales with the Switch being around the time Breath of the Wild reaches 10 mil on Switch alone though is accurate and realistic.  It could happen sooner, but I do not want to put the goal posts too far out of reach lol.

People will buy it on the Switch because they want a Switch.  The Switch hardware itself is more appealing than the Wii U, and especially now when it's shiny and new, a lot of people are going to buy it mainly for the hardware.  Those people will naturally want at least one game to play.  Right now, Zelda is basically the only real choice.  When Mario Kart 8 comes out, people will have another viable option, and some people will go with that.

It really depends on if Nintendo continues releasing DLC for it, and if the DLC spawns hype.

If they release even one more major DLC that adds up to as much as this fall's pack is supposed to have, and they release it sometime strategic next year, then it'll absolutely give it the lifetime push it'll need to hit 10m.

Without that, I'm anticipating 7-8m, due to being a launch title and waning interest as time goes by, despite the quality of the title.

Yeah for the next few months pretty much every Switch buyer is going to get Botw. It's only further down the line when many more great games are available that some people will start buying it for say, Splatoon 2 or a new Animal Crossing, and for some of those people Botw won't be their cup of tea.

25% is still a really strong attach rate. 3DS for example doesn't have any games at all with an attach rate that high, not even Pokemon.

3.84mil, just 6.16mil more to go


The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild

Nintendo Switch - 2.76 million
Nintendo Wii U - 1.08 million

The Legend of Zelda: Twilight Princess

Nintendo Wii - 2.47 million
GameCube

Very good points and agreed.  We would also need to consider that even Twilight Princess did not surpass 9 million and there was a lot of hype surrounding it, due to the more realistic graphics, on a much more "media" hyped console, Wii.  The comparison here is valid as Zelda is just not the type of game to reach out to the masses, which has been the requirement for many games to outsell expectations, selling in 8 digits vs. 7.  I do think it is different this time, as Zelda Botw plays much more freely and anyone can get lost in the gameplay.  The design is refreshing enough that it can appeal to a much larger audience.  Not Mario Kart worthy, but much more accessible than what we have traditionally seen.  Time will tell if the "Zelda game" barrier can be broken down by this fact for those users who would normally not consider playing such a game.

3.84 million first month means at least one of tbone's predictions for Zelda (near 4 million first month) have come true, so well done on that.

I'd love to see Breath of the Wild hit 10 million, but personally I'd still expect the game to top out around 7-8 million. However, I'm happy to be proven wrong. This is also the first Zelda title that's going to receive DLC support, and while that might be limited to two packs this year, it's not inconceivable Nintendo will launch further DLC for the title in the future. If they go so far as to offer a major expansion - and sell a 'Game of the Year' edition - then perhaps that's where Zelda's 10 million comes from. It'll certainly be interesting to find out.

I believe in you tbone.

I'm changing my forecast from "will pass 8 million" to "will pass 10 million".