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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - BOLD Prediction: Zelda BotW will do a Whopping 10mil Lifetime! Update 10mil Achieved

JWeinCom said:
I would say no. Twilight Princess was in a similar situation, and it didn't reach that. The Switch is not going to be as huge as the Wii, so I'd expect less.

Your right, TP is in the similar situation no doubt so comparison is correct thinking. That said TP was off by 1.5mil, which is alot sure but still close.

 

Switch doesnt need to be as high as wii. It could still do 50mil and reach 10mil combined with LoZ wiiu. Look at the high sales some games got on wiiu despite a 15mil userbase.

 

That said BotW is tracking ahead of TP and ibwouldnt be surprised if it is already close to 4mil by end of its first month (shipped+digital)



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tbone51 said:
JWeinCom said:
I would say no. Twilight Princess was in a similar situation, and it didn't reach that. The Switch is not going to be as huge as the Wii, so I'd expect less.

Your right, TP is in the similar situation no doubt so comparison is correct thinking. That said TP was off by 1.5mil, which is alot sure but still close.

 

Switch doesnt need to be as high as wii. It could still do 50mil and reach 10mil combined with LoZ wiiu. Look at the high sales some games got on wiiu despite a 15mil userbase.

 

That said BotW is tracking ahead of TP and ibwouldnt be surprised if it is already close to 4mil by end of its first month (shipped+digital)

It may be tracking ahead of TP, but at the same time PS4 was tracking higher than PS2 for a while.  It's the nature of the industry that things today start off faster.  Also, Breath of the Wild has the advantage of being the only worthwhile title on the Switch right now, which is why it has basically 100% attach rate.  When Mario Kart 8 Deluxe comes out, we'll see less people getting Zelda with their Switch.

I believe that first month sales of the Switch were 2.4 million, so I'm not sure how BOTW gets to 4 million.  It's not selling 2 million on Wii U in a month.



It might, as long as Nintendo touts it enough.



JWeinCom said:
tbone51 said:

Your right, TP is in the similar situation no doubt so comparison is correct thinking. That said TP was off by 1.5mil, which is alot sure but still close.

 

Switch doesnt need to be as high as wii. It could still do 50mil and reach 10mil combined with LoZ wiiu. Look at the high sales some games got on wiiu despite a 15mil userbase.

 

That said BotW is tracking ahead of TP and ibwouldnt be surprised if it is already close to 4mil by end of its first month (shipped+digital)

It may be tracking ahead of TP, but at the same time PS4 was tracking higher than PS2 for a while.  It's the nature of the industry that things today start off faster.  Also, Breath of the Wild has the advantage of being the only worthwhile title on the Switch right now, which is why it has basically 100% attach rate.  When Mario Kart 8 Deluxe comes out, we'll see less people getting Zelda with their Switch.

I believe that first month sales of the Switch were 2.4 million, so I'm not sure how BOTW gets to 4 million.  It's not selling 2 million on Wii U in a month.

Zelda sold through 1.8mil First Month in Japan/US for wiiu/switch. Game is doing well everywhere else, so sell through at minimum is another 700k (that is Europe, rest of NoA/World). That would be about 2.5mil+ sold. There are a ton of copies in the wild (pun nintended). So yes i believe we have somewhere between 3.6mil-4.2mil shipped+digital.

 

As of BotW selling faster, i think itll leg out well. Time to tell, it wont do under 6mil. Thats all i kno. Ill go with my prediction of 10mil. If it doesnt itll still be close imo



8M sounds lofty, but within reason. 10 million would mean that BotW will really expand the fanbase. That's possible, but 10M still seems quite high.



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I don't think it will. LoZ is more to satisfy the super hardcore than a mainstream title. It will sell 8 million max. Most likely is 3-5 million. Even that might be optimistic. If it were to multiplatform, it would easily sell 15 mill, but isolated on the Nintendo platform is going to kill it's potential.



I don't see why not. There's really nothing else to buy on Switch



It will pass 8 million for sure.

It's going to have a high attach rate, since if you're going to buy a Switch, you might as well buy its highest rated and most hyped game which is also being hailed as one of the best games ever made.

Previous Zelda sales are not the ceiling for it either, as its reinvention of the franchises's gameplay has broadened its appeal significantly.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Rem87919394 said:
I don't see why not. There's really nothing else to buy on Switch

The logic is so correct here. I mean why not go with 50mil copies sold



tbone51 said:
JWeinCom said:

It may be tracking ahead of TP, but at the same time PS4 was tracking higher than PS2 for a while.  It's the nature of the industry that things today start off faster.  Also, Breath of the Wild has the advantage of being the only worthwhile title on the Switch right now, which is why it has basically 100% attach rate.  When Mario Kart 8 Deluxe comes out, we'll see less people getting Zelda with their Switch.

I believe that first month sales of the Switch were 2.4 million, so I'm not sure how BOTW gets to 4 million.  It's not selling 2 million on Wii U in a month.

Zelda sold through 1.8mil First Month in Japan/US for wiiu/switch. Game is doing well everywhere else, so sell through at minimum is another 700k (that is Europe, rest of NoA/World). That would be about 2.5mil+ sold. There are a ton of copies in the wild (pun nintended). So yes i believe we have somewhere between 3.6mil-4.2mil shipped+digital.

 

As of BotW selling faster, i think itll leg out well. Time to tell, it wont do under 6mil. Thats all i kno. Ill go with my prediction of 10mil. If it doesnt itll still be close imo

Where are you getting 1.8 million in Japan?  Media create has it just under 500k through april 16.