Apparently its a "handheld" so of course!

Its not a HH. It just has a HH mode :p

And that is why it can outsell the Wii U LT in Japan FY! XD

I don't understand it either.  One big thing that we fail to understand in the west is that the price of the Switch in Japan is the equivalent of $264.00 in US dollars -- a price which amazed a lot of Japanese developers for what the conosle offers.  Also, it has a games lineup that's more appealing to Japanese audiences than western ones, it's seen as an end of Nintendo's handheld/console market split, it appeals to current portable gaming trends in Japan and it's essentially replacing three platforms in Japan: the 3DS, Wii U and Playstation Vita.  When I take things further into consideration, 4m by the end of the year in Japan (or 'end of the fiscal year') seems attainable.

Zorg, I think that you like so much switch concept  that makes you to overestimate the anywise big switch potential  in japan ( regarding 3ds userbase ) and disregard some facts.

Mostly, 3DS owners who have also a wii u will be ready to upgrade!

People who bought a 3ds between August 2011-2013 spent 19,000 yen... Will they spend 30,000 yen for switch? I mean those who don't care about home console gaming.  Do you remember 3DS sales perfomance at 25.000 yen?

As for 3DS sales in 2017,  it's currently flat wyoy ( ... if it will be selling 27k on average for th rest  47 weeks of the year, its sales would be 1.42m, so a good estimation by you!

Let's see the effect of switch on 3ds sales, if it will have any...

No 3DS backwards compatability on switch and so big price difference between the two gaming machines benefits 3DS onwards sales.

Definitely bold, I don't see it happening, but would be great if it did

What I do think is possible is 4mil Switches shipped WW by the time "Splatoon 2" launches.

I'm sure Bethesda will be happier with a 5-6mil install base when "Skyrim" hits then they would have been releasing at launch window. If that game can break 2mil LT, we have a better chance of seeing more optimized AAAs hit the Switch for the portable aspect.

I would be 100% behind this if the thing had 4G LTE, calling, texting, and at least a couple dozen of the most popular apps. In fact I think a Nintendo Phone would be the biggest selling Phone platform in Japan.

The Switch I think will struggle after the inital launch, and will only pick up after a smaller more portable SKU is released, both at a lower price, and a seperate model with 4G, Texting, and calling at the $399.99 price point.

It's certainly possible. It'll need more factors besides the games going for it though.
Splatoon and Mario, I'm sure will do gangbusters, ESPECIALLY Splatoon.
As a new IP, it's difficult to tell how well Arms is going to do by itself, let alone as a system seller if it is one. There have been a lot of Splatoon vibes coming from that game, so maybe it can, we'll have to wait and see.
Zelda... I'm not too sure about that.

If it gets aggressive deals and bundling around the major Japanese holidays like Obon week and the holidays, like a Splatoon 2 bundle, or a Super Mario Odyssey bundle with a Pro Controller at $329, or maybe even a price cut, then I definitely think it can pull it off.