Bold Prediction: Switch Will Sell 4mil Units by Years End in Japan!

[tak13]

zorg1000 said:

ktay95 said:
3DS is still going strong though, if 3DS was as dead as WiiU and they marketed this as the true successor to both then I could see it having a chance at 4m

3DS has certainly begun to reach it's saturation point in Japan.

2011-4.3 million

2012-5.5 million

2013-5.1 million

2014-3.2 million

2015-2.2 million

2016-2million ( missing +100K from special 2DS pokemon blue/red/green edition in FEB-APR ) .

2017 sales will likely be under 1.5 million and the 15 million people who bought a 3DS in 2011-2013 are likely ready to upgrade.

Zorg, I think that you like so much switch concept  that makes you to overestimate the anywise big switch potential  in japan ( regarding 3ds userbase ) and disregard some facts.

Mostly, 3DS owners who have also a wii u will be ready to upgrade!

People who bought a 3ds between August 2011-2013 spent 19,000 yen... Will they spend 30,000 yen for switch? I mean those who don't care about home console gaming.  Do you remember 3DS sales perfomance at 25.000 yen?

 

As for 3DS sales in 2017,  it's currently flat wyoy ( ... if it will be selling 27k on average for th rest  47 weeks of the year, its sales would be 1.42m, so a good estimation by you!

Let's see the effect of switch on 3ds sales, if it will have any...

No 3DS backwards compatability on switch and so big price difference between the two gaming machines benefits 3DS onwards sales.