By using this site, you agree to our Privacy Policy and our Terms of Use. Close

Forums - Gaming Discussion - PS5 release date predicted...

JRPGfan said:
LivingMetal said:

...by Michael Pachter

You know, I think Sony’s probably going to wait and see what happens with the Scorpio, and if the Scorpio puts pressure on them and if it’s really that much better, maybe they’ll accelerate. But you know, back to my 4K TV thing, I don’t see 4K broadcast until 2020, and I think 4K broadcast is what’s going to cause people to switch their TVs over. So, I think that’s a good time to launch a new console.”

https://soundcloud.com/the1099/episode-77-michael-pachter-on-switch-projections-playstation-5-date-and-xbox-ones-future

Discuss!!! (Or denounce.)

I actually agree with this.

By 2020, people will get 4k TVs for broadcasts in 4k, and by then, a new console will be needed to showcase that.

That seems like a really good time to launch a new console.

I'm under the impression that Switch will be the start of a new console gen. If I'm correct, that would mean the PS5 will be three years late to the party. Just my take.



Around the Network
LivingMetal said:
JRPGfan said:

I actually agree with this.

By 2020, people will get 4k TVs for broadcasts in 4k, and by then, a new console will be needed to showcase that.

That seems like a really good time to launch a new console.

I'm under the impression that Switch will be the start of a new console gen. If I'm correct, that would mean the PS5 will be three years late to the party. Just my take.

huh? nothing to do when going with a new 4k console is smart or not.

I never used the word gen, above. I said a new console.

The switch isnt a "part" of the same console gen as the Xbox One and PS4.

It doesnt play the game games. Nintendo is doing its own thing, with a hybrid.

So it doesnt make sense to lump them together, and go "its a 9th gen system 3 years early".

 

Anyways the switch will be on the market competeing against the PS4 & XB1.

That doesnt make it a new gen started early, that makes it late to the party.



JRPGfan said:
LivingMetal said:

I'm under the impression that Switch will be the start of a new console gen. If I'm correct, that would mean the PS5 will be three years late to the party. Just my take.

huh? nothing to do when going with a new 4k console is smart or not.

I never used the word gen, above. I said a new console.

The switch isnt a "part" of the same console gen as the Xbox One and PS4.

It doesnt play the game games. Nintendo is doing its own thing, with a hybrid.

So it doesnt make sense to lump them together, and go "its a 9th gen system 3 years early".

 

Anyways the switch will be on the market competeing against the PS4 & XB1.

That doesnt make it a new gen started early, that makes it late to the party.

Dude.  I did say "Just my take." Don't get so bent out of two shapes. 

But since the WiiU was last gen, I can phantom the Switch being this gen.



Pemalite said:

You do realise that the Cell was used for more than just the Playstation right? There is a reason why other companies threw their weight behind it, Sony didn't carry the entire burden of the Cell's development.
IBM invented allot of the I.P. (PowerPC) which companies like Apple (Mac) and Microsoft (Xbox) licensed in their own semi-custom designs.
Mercury Systems used it in it's Blade servers, which trickled into defense and military segments, IBM used it in Super Computers, pretty sure Toshiba threw it into Televisions...
Besides, you are just re-affirming my point. Sony and Microsoft are not going to take losses on console hardware. That includes everything, including R&D.

Yes I was aware. We clearly agree on this matter like you said. The rest is minor details.

Pemalite said:

Contrary to popular belief, Microsoft cannot just throw as much money as it see's fit to "fix" a problem. 
It has to abide by various laws... And it needs to keep shareholders happy.
Competition is a good thing for the market, which is why I would prefer Sony, Microsoft and Nintendo to be on equal footing... As that will benefit the consumer the most with lower prices and better products.

Still doesn't change the fact that MS could make it happen one way or another. The shareholders may be angry right now, but would change their minds when MS had an open highway for their next console like PS did with the PS1 and PS2. However, like I said, I wouldn't want that to happen for the reason you re-affirmed.

Pemalite said:

AMD isn't a person. It is a business. - It doesn't care if other business's are "hurting" as it doesn't have feelings.
AMD is comprised of thousands of different people who all have different ideas and perspectives.

Businesses are not people, logically, but apparently corporations are, but thats a whole nother topic altogether. It doesn't mean that businesses don't have relationships on some level with other businesses, because they most certainly do. In the end though, money talks.

Pemalite said:

If nVidia or Intel gives Microsoft or Sony a better deal, you can bet your ass that they will choose them over AMD.

You are just re-affirming the "there's nothing saying PS and MS may not look elsewhere in a pinch" and "PS and MS aren't completely locked in if they don't want to be" point I made, so we agree.

Pemalite said:

Ryzen isn't on the market, thus we have zero idea if it will take any relevent marketshare.
Even when AMD was beating Intel, Intel still controlled the majority of the market.
Plus AMD isn't releasing any high-end chipsets to go with Ryzen, Ryzen itself is also not going to be as fast or as efficient as Intel.
Ryzen has taken multiple cost-efficient design choices though to keep costs low.
And there is also some rumours (To be taken with pinches of salt) that Ryzen has a few bugs that may hinder performance in some cases, bugs in CPU's aren't uncommon, but ones that impact reliability and performance aren't a good sign. (Case in point: TLB in Phenom.)
As for x86. There is no requirement that forces Microsoft and Sony to use x86. ARM can already soundly beat Jaguar.

Right now most of this is rumour when it comes to Ryzen. We may have seen what it can do as of the December New Horizon event, but considering the rumours stated it wasn't performing near that well just months earlier, and rumours that clocks may be even higher at launch, it may be better than we think. There are rumours of bugs as well correct, which may throw a wrench in the good faith AMD and Ryzen has built up until now. We'll see what happens at launch.

PS or MS could use ARM yes, but unless it makes giant leaps in the next couple years, x86 would be the smarter choice for next gen. After that though, based on ARMS pace of advancement, it could give x86 a run for its money. There's a reason AMD has been tinkering with ARM for while now.



Intrinsic said:

EricHiggin said:

PS and Sony don't have the backing or the want to try and subsidize again just in case, and I don't blame them either. As long as constant upgrades with reasonable trade in's exist, there's no problem with selling at cost, or even a small profit. Why MS doesn't just subsidize PS into the ground I don't know. They have the means to do so and quite quickly. They would have the performance console market to themselves afterwards, unless Apple or Samsung decided to jump into the ring. I don't want MS to price/push PS out of console gaming, but everyone knows if they really wanted to, they could. Makes me wonder whether XB is mostly a warning to PS to stay away from their Windows/PC market. 

Lol...... ok lets see. Sony and MS sell a $400 console. That in truth costs them $420 to build. Sony sells theirs for $400. MS sells theirs for $100 and takes a hit of $320 on each unit sold because they have money.

If MS sold 20M of those consoles, they would have lost $6.4B. thats billion. And we are just talking about what they lost on the console sale. Not even what they have lost on R&D, marketing...etc cause at that point everything xbox related will just be a loss.

And no company gets into anything just to lose money.

$100 for the console is absurd, $200 min would make more sense, if not higher. I'll use $100 though to follow your example.

You ironically left out the most important parts. 

MS also spends hundreds of millions if not billions on buying/creating more first party studios, their games, and new IP's. This combined with the $100 retail performance console (which we're going to assume is very close to being on par with the PS console since they cost the same in your example and MS isn't going to do something stupid like DRM, or kinect again), leads to MS grabbing a much much larger market share than even the 360 had. It would be more like taking this gen, and flipping it so XB had the huge lead, but their lead would be even greater with a much larger gap.

Now this goes on for one or two gens straight. PS is now broke and gets sold and MS has the market to themselves, for at least one gen lets say. All of those billions lost, is now made up in one gen because MS has little competition in the performance console market, and they make all that money back very very quickly since they can charge what they want, within reason of course. You may even see DRM come back. If you also assume MS is the one who is able to buy PS by some chance, then the payback is now even faster. The shareholders who were furious with the losses, are now erasing deserts with tears of joy.

MS has the money to do this overall, no problem. You are correct in saying businesses don't operate to lose money, but many times businesses lose money on purpose now, knowing they will reap the rewards later. The console sector is the perfect example of this. Consoles have almost always been subzidized each gen, which wasn't a problem because the companies knew that the amount of games sold for each one of those consoles would easily cover the initial loss.

While there are hardcore PS fans who would still only buy PS, if PS charged $400 for theirs, and MS $100 for theirs, the amount of people who would flock to XB would be unbelievably high. If MS also had more first party, more quality games, and also the third party exclusives now, do to their PS4 level console sales, those sales numbers would then outgrow even that, at record rates, and PS would be screwed. Period.

I am not saying I want this to happen, because I don't. It would almost certainly lead to terrible console experiences going forward, if not another market crash eventually. I own a PS4 this gen and don't plan on buying an XB1 and probably not Scoprio either, we'll see. This isn't because I'm a PS only gamer, I was a fan of both XB and PS2 and well as 360 and PS3. Each console had its pros and cons, and it also kept them both as honest as possible. All I was saying is why would MS compete just for the heck of it? The one thing that stands out to me is that MS probably saw PS becoming a "computer entertainment" company, and were scared that PS may start walking into their territory, so they did what any large animal would do. They got up and started chasing the intruder back to the boundary, and continued to patrol that boundry until the intruder learned their place.



Around the Network
EricHiggin said:

$100 for the console is absurd, $200 min would make more sense, if not higher. I'll use $100 though to follow your example.

You ironically left out the most important parts. 

MS also spends hundreds of millions if not billions on buying/creating more first party studios, their games, and new IP's. This combined with the $100 retail performance console (which we're going to assume is very close to being on par with the PS console since they cost the same in your example and MS isn't going to do something stupid like DRM, or kinect again), leads to MS grabbing a much much larger market share than even the 360 had. It would be more like taking this gen, and flipping it so XB had the huge lead, but their lead would be even greater with a much larger gap.

Now this goes on for one or two gens straight. PS is now broke and gets sold and MS has the market to themselves, for at least one gen lets say. All of those billions lost, is now made up in one gen because MS has little competition in the performance console market, and they make all that money back very very quickly since they can charge what they want, within reason of course. You may even see DRM come back. If you also assume MS is the one who is able to buy PS by some chance, then the payback is now even faster. The shareholders who were furious with the losses, are now erasing deserts with tears of joy.

MS has the money to do this overall, no problem. You are correct in saying businesses don't operate to lose money, but many times businesses lose money on purpose now, knowing they will reap the rewards later. The console sector is the perfect example of this. Consoles have almost always been subzidized each gen, which wasn't a problem because the companies knew that the amount of games sold for each one of those consoles would easily cover the initial loss.

While there are hardcore PS fans who would still only buy PS, if PS charged $400 for theirs, and MS $100 for theirs, the amount of people who would flock to XB would be unbelievably high. If MS also had more first party, more quality games, and also the third party exclusives now, do to their PS4 level console sales, those sales numbers would then outgrow even that, at record rates, and PS would be screwed. Period.

I am not saying I want this to happen, because I don't. It would almost certainly lead to terrible console experiences going forward, if not another market crash eventually. I own a PS4 this gen and don't plan on buying an XB1 and probably not Scoprio either, we'll see. This isn't because I'm a PS only gamer, I was a fan of both XB and PS2 and well as 360 and PS3. Each console had its pros and cons, and it also kept them both as honest as possible. All I was saying is why would MS compete just for the heck of it? The one thing that stands out to me is that MS probably saw PS becoming a "computer entertainment" company, and were scared that PS may start walking into their territory, so they did what any large animal would do. They got up and started chasing the intruder back to the boundary, and continued to patrol that boundry until the intruder learned their place.

All I'll say is this. The example I gave, accounted for 20M in sales amounting to a $6.4B defecit.

But in ttruth, of something like that happened MS could very well go onto sell 100M consoles if they can make them fast enough. By the time its all said and done, thats a loss of $50B.

You still think that is feasable?



Intrinsic said:

All I'll say is this. The example I gave, accounted for 20M in sales amounting to a $6.4B defecit.

But in ttruth, of something like that happened MS could very well go onto sell 100M consoles if they can make them fast enough. By the time its all said and done, thats a loss of $50B.

You still think that is feasable?

You once again left out something very important.

The last time a console sold 100M units, and didn't sell 1 game, accessory, movie, online sub, etc, was......  never?

The last time a console cost the same amount to manufacture from 0 sales at launch to 100M in sales was.....  never?

I'll be generous and say MS ended up with a loss of $20B at 100M units after profits from everything else. Is that feasible? Well if you look at what MS is worth, what their typical profits and growth are overall, and take into account that your competition no longer exists, so immediately/next gen MS can now make profit on all consoles going forward as well.

Then yes, it most certainly is. The $20B would be made back very quickly and would only solidify MS' new leadership in the console space.

Let's just hope this never happens for all our sakes.



EricHiggin said:

 

Pemalite said:

Ryzen isn't on the market, thus we have zero idea if it will take any relevent marketshare.
Even when AMD was beating Intel, Intel still controlled the majority of the market.
Plus AMD isn't releasing any high-end chipsets to go with Ryzen, Ryzen itself is also not going to be as fast or as efficient as Intel.
Ryzen has taken multiple cost-efficient design choices though to keep costs low.
And there is also some rumours (To be taken with pinches of salt) that Ryzen has a few bugs that may hinder performance in some cases, bugs in CPU's aren't uncommon, but ones that impact reliability and performance aren't a good sign. (Case in point: TLB in Phenom.)
As for x86. There is no requirement that forces Microsoft and Sony to use x86. ARM can already soundly beat Jaguar.

Right now most of this is rumour when it comes to Ryzen. We may have seen what it can do as of the December New Horizon event, but considering the rumours stated it wasn't performing near that well just months earlier, and rumours that clocks may be even higher at launch, it may be better than we think. There are rumours of bugs as well correct, which may throw a wrench in the good faith AMD and Ryzen has built up until now. We'll see what happens at launch.

PS or MS could use ARM yes, but unless it makes giant leaps in the next couple years, x86 would be the smarter choice for next gen. After that though, based on ARMS pace of advancement, it could give x86 a run for its money. There's a reason AMD has been tinkering with ARM for while now.

It's an "Educated" rumor.

We know AMD has cut corners as it has split up the L3 cache pools. (This impacts performance as well.)
We know AMD doesn't have a high-end platform because it doesn't offer a chipset/CPU with an appropriate number of PCI-E lanes or memory channels.

And this is from what AMD has told us, not rumor. - People are hyping up Ryzen like it's the second coming of Jesus.

Benchmarks of engineering samples (From the same sources that leaked bulldozers engineering samples which people refused to believe and turned out to be accurate.) shows that on a per-core basis it's around the same level as a Core i5. Just AMD will happily sell you more cores to compensate.

ARM can beat low-end x86 processors. Just ask Apple.
I don't believe Microsoft/Sony will go with ARM next round, but the fact is, ARM is better than most people realise, especially high-end ARM cores.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

2019



Pemalite said:
EricHiggin said:

Right now most of this is rumour when it comes to Ryzen. We may have seen what it can do as of the December New Horizon event, but considering the rumours stated it wasn't performing near that well just months earlier, and rumours that clocks may be even higher at launch, it may be better than we think. There are rumours of bugs as well correct, which may throw a wrench in the good faith AMD and Ryzen has built up until now. We'll see what happens at launch.

PS or MS could use ARM yes, but unless it makes giant leaps in the next couple years, x86 would be the smarter choice for next gen. After that though, based on ARMS pace of advancement, it could give x86 a run for its money. There's a reason AMD has been tinkering with ARM for while now.

It's an "Educated" rumor.
We know AMD has cut corners as it has split up the L3 cache pools. (This impacts performance as well.)
We know AMD doesn't have a high-end platform because it doesn't offer a chipset/CPU with an appropriate number of PCI-E lanes or memory channels.
And this is from what AMD has told us, not rumor. - People are hyping up Ryzen like it's the second coming of Jesus.
Benchmarks of engineering samples (From the same sources that leaked bulldozers engineering samples which people refused to believe and turned out to be accurate.) shows that on a per-core basis it's around the same level as a Core i5. Just AMD will happily sell you more cores to compensate.
ARM can beat low-end x86 processors. Just ask Apple.
I don't believe Microsoft/Sony will go with ARM next round, but the fact is, ARM is better than most people realise, especially high-end ARM cores.

All good points based on everything we know.