...by Michael Pachter

“You know, I think Sony’s probably going to wait and see what happens with the Scorpio, and if the Scorpio puts pressure on them and if it’s really that much better, maybe they’ll accelerate. But you know, back to my 4K TV thing, I don’t see 4K broadcast until 2020, and I think 4K broadcast is what’s going to cause people to switch their TVs over. So, I think that’s a good time to launch a new console.”

https://soundcloud.com/the1099/episode-77-michael-pachter-on-switch-projections-playstation-5-date-and-xbox-ones-future

Discuss!!! (Or denounce.)

Gens last a minimum of 5 years. Last one was 7. This one was looking like a 6-year long one, but the upgraded units will probably make it last longer. I guess 7 years, so 2020.

Games are more expensive to make and take more time to be made. So 5 years is probably too short. Gens will become longer to accommodate the new development time. Last gen consoles suffered with outdated specs towards the last years, so they fixed it with stronger SKUs.

Sooo it will be before 2020 or after 2020. I got what you mean pachter.

November 2019 is my guess, but it may be the year after.

2019 FOR SURE

My bet is 2019 November aswell

Well it could be any of 3 of these: 2019/2020/2021.

3 years (2019) is the minimum time for sony's biggest studios to each output 2/3 games, it gives PS4 Pro some time to stretch it legs and validate itself as an upgrade and is the earliest time for certain tech milestones to be implemented in a $399 box (7nm, HMB2 etc)

Bold claim... November 2018... you heard it here folks

If Sony stops holding PS4 Pro down and allows developers to a) make exclusive games for it and b) charge for upgrades of previously released games this gen could last until 2020. If not, Sony is boycotting PS4 Pro potential too much, a new gen is going to be needed sooner than most think.

I called this.... I also think the soonest we see the PS5 will be in 2020.

And that is if and only if the tech that it needs to exist is even available by then.

I probably sound like a broken record now; but as i keep saying, the PS5 hinges on a shift from the current 14nm fabrication process (that makes the PS4pro possible) to at least a 10nm/7nm fabrication process. That is important because it means they will be able to fit at least a 12-16TF GPU in an APU in a case the size of the PS4pro.

If anyone wants to know how close we are to the PS5.... just look at chip fabrication tech from the likes of TSCM and whatever 7nm based GPU AMD announces in the next 2-3years.