Exclusives are the single most important reason anyone would pick one console over another. There ARE other reasons but none of them are as important. In fact the present climate and list of PS4 exclusives at the moment demonstrate this perfectly. We know there are many types of gamers who like certain genres, popular or niche, and right now anyone on the market for a console and who like JRPGs will pick the PS4 because it has the most 'exclusives' in that department. We can argue percentages all day but it doesn't negate the obvious. For the XB brand to stand any chance of slowing PS4s lead down, it HAS to have exclusives, and the XB1 fans need to buy them. The problem is XB1 fans are slowly building into their mindset a dislike of certain genres which in turn feeds into them not doing very well on the XB1. XB1 fans are shooting themselves in the foot with this.

Bolded - That is according to "you".

I realize that according to you if someone buys a console you guarantee that person will buys exclusives but that's not true at all. Many many people just buy third party games. Many people buy exclusives games on a console just because to them it's a game available on the console they have, not because they bought that console to play that specific exclusive.

because there is absolutely no reason to buy an Xbox instead of a Playstation if they share multi-plat games BUT Sony also has a bunch of exlusives.

Why would anyone want to get an Xbox if they can get a Playstation and potentially have exclusives added on like Bloodborne and God of War? 

Sorry but Microsoft essentially is going to send the Xbox to its death if they give up on any exclusives or solid first party. 

the problem is the Xbox One started out as less powerful than the PS4. The Scorpio is a whole other discussion, we'll see what happens.

But if the competitor has an arguably more streamlined system with the same (or better) specs that has your entire library but ALSO a bunch of exclusives- what advantage would the average consumer have in picking an Xbox?

I don't think its rocket science. The more choice to the consumer the better. and sorry, but playing Call of Duty or Battlefield on the XboxOne or PS4 is virtually the same experience. So the only thing left really ARE exclusive content.

I think its plain as day that this is probably one of the big reasons the PS4 is killing the X-One as well. in the end when you think of "omg I want to get an Xbox for that game" what really pops in mind? Halo? and that's about it 

So, you accept that those buying a console for 3rd party games are also aware of the exclusives ...

I'm trying to picture how this scenario works without the exclusives or knowledge of them:

A person who hasn't got a console walks into a shop to buy one.
He has no idea what the exclusives are on any of the consoles.
In lieu of this lack of knowledge he flips a coin, heads PS4, tails XB1.
Having bought the console, he then decides to find out what exclusives there are for it ...

They matter more to people on the Internet because for the most part were all hardcore gamers, know a ton about libraries and release lists, this is more a passion for us than a simple hobby or entertainment. But to the general public where most of these sales generate from, they don't give a rats ass about exclusives. Or, if they do, it matters less than "what's cool", price, what their friends are playing, graphics. That's why you see lots of hype online for Shin Mahama Dating Sim 2k17 Vol 2.4 but when it releases it sells little. On the flip side, you see tons and tons of hate for games like CoD, yet it tops sales charts.

Xbox needs exclusives because that's how you get some of the hardcore gamers. But for the most part they are inconsequential.

There would be absolutely no reason if every person interested in a console game would care about those exclusives. But sales show a different story where most exclusives are far from selling as much as multiplats. They could also care mostly about online features and other things. Just because you don't value these other things doesn't mean others don't.

I think the biggest mistake being made in this thread is misjudging one of the things that really make exclusives important.

Obviously they sell and pretty much any franchise that continues is going to make a direct financial case for doing so.

They also act a differentciator between systems that are becoming more and more alike.

But, the most important thing about exclusives isn't how many they sell, it's who they sell them to.

As others have said, normally as a way to say exclusives don't matter as much as forum goes think they are, exclusives sell to hardcore gamers. A sale to a hardcore gamer is worth way more than a sale to a casual gamer. A hardcore gamer is going to buy more games, talk to their friends about what they're playing, watch videos, read articles, work at video game stores and in electronics departments. They can have a huge influence on the public opinion of a brand.

That's not what I said. What I said is that people that have a PS for games like COD will also buy what looks interesting to them that is on the shelves. It doesn't mean they know about that game. So many buy what is on discount... at 10$ I would also get a game like Killzone without knowing the franchise.

Bolded - That is very true. Word of mouth is often spread by hardcore gamers. Convince them into getting your console and they'll influence the generation's direction.