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Forums - Nintendo - Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

 

How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?

<10M 39 4.02%
 
10M-20M 125 12.87%
 
20M-30M 137 14.11%
 
30M-40M 143 14.73%
 
40M-50M 121 12.46%
 
50M-60M 120 12.36%
 
60M-70M 70 7.21%
 
70M-80M 60 6.18%
 
80M-100M 60 6.18%
 
> 100M 96 9.89%
 
Total:971
Conina said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I don't know why I keep hearing that the NES had "normal" hardware.  It had same processor as the Atari 2600.  Nintendo seems to do its best work when the hardware is underpowered.

 

The_Liquid_Laser said:

The NES had a graphics chip.  However, it had the same processor as the Atari 2600.  The NES is notorious for flicker and slowdown because its processor was so weak.

 

No, it hadn't. They have processors of the same CPU family, both based on the 6502... not the same CPU!

The Atari 2600 had a dumbed down 6507, clocked 1.19 MHz, with very limited memory access: the chip can only address 8 Kb memory and the cartridge slot limited it further down to addressable 4 KB.

The NES had a Ricoh 2A03, clocked 1.79 MHz.

You also can't just ignore the different co-processors and suggest that both devices had the same limitations, but Nintendo was better in optimization. 

Thank you so much for helping me with my argument, which is that the NES hardware was considered weak when it was released.  In Japan it was released in 1983, while the Atari 2600 was released in the US in 1977.  As your post points out the NES processor was only 50% more powerful.  But according to Moore's Law it should have been 1600% more powerful after 6 years.  50% vs. 1600%...hmm, the NES sure was weak.  And considering it was released in the US and the rest of the world even later than that, by that time the NES was considered really, really weak.  And yet, so many people remember this console so fondly in spite of it being so really, really weak.  Nintendo really does do their best work when using underpowered hardware.  They rebuilt the home console industry from scratch using that weak NES hardware. 

Thank you so much for pointing out these details, so that the rest of the forum knows just how really, really weak and underpowered the NES was when it was released.



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zorg1000 said:
Helloplite said:
Nintendo has slightly missed a great opportunity for switchs second year. Let's see if they can turn it around otherwise no more than GBA levels - which will prompt them to return to the two systems strategy.

Why exactly would that make them go back to a two system strategy?

Decreased overall software and hardware sales?



Helloplite said:
zorg1000 said:

Why exactly would that make them go back to a two system strategy?

Decreased overall software and hardware sales?

That's looking at things way too narrowly.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

The_Liquid_Laser said:
Conina said:

No, it hadn't. They have processors of the same CPU family, both based on the 6502... not the same CPU!

The Atari 2600 had a dumbed down 6507, clocked 1.19 MHz, with very limited memory access: the chip can only address 8 Kb memory and the cartridge slot limited it further down to addressable 4 KB.

The NES had a Ricoh 2A03, clocked 1.79 MHz.

You also can't just ignore the different co-processors and suggest that both devices had the same limitations, but Nintendo was better in optimization. 

Thank you so much for helping me with my argument, which is that the NES hardware was considered weak when it was released.  In Japan it was released in 1983, while the Atari 2600 was released in the US in 1977.  As your post points out the NES processor was only 50% more powerful.  But according to Moore's Law it should have been 1600% more powerful after 6 years. 

Moore's law ain't about clock rates and only indirectly about performance... but I know what you mean.

Of course there were "next-gen" CPUs already available, f.e. the Motorola 68000 was released in 1979. But it took years to get these technologies into consumer products back then, especially into home consoles which were considered as toys.

The 68000 was used exclusively in expensive workstations the first years (Sun, SGI, HP, Apollo), then it trickled down into cheaper products: into the $2500 Macintosh in 1984, then into the $1300 Amiga 1000 and into the $800 Atari ST in 1985, then into the $700 Amiga 500 in 1987 and finally into the $189 SEGA Genesis in 1988/89. So it took almost a decade to reach consumer products below $500.

Nobody would have expected such a CPU in a $179 console in 1983 and Nintendo would have been crazy to plan with that in 1980 - 1982.

So which other options than a modified 6502 did they have in the planning phase of the NES? The Z80 and the intel 8085 were't that much faster (and a lot more expensive).



Conina said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Thank you so much for helping me with my argument, which is that the NES hardware was considered weak when it was released.  In Japan it was released in 1983, while the Atari 2600 was released in the US in 1977.  As your post points out the NES processor was only 50% more powerful.  But according to Moore's Law it should have been 1600% more powerful after 6 years. 

Moore's law ain't about clock rates and only indirectly about performance... but I know what you mean.

Of course there were "next-gen" CPUs already available, f.e. the Motorola 68000 was released in 1979. But it took years to get these technologies into consumer products back then, especially into home consoles which were considered as toys.

The 68000 was used exclusively in expensive workstations the first years (Sun, SGI, HP, Apollo), then it trickled down into cheaper products: into the $2500 Macintosh in 1984, then into the $1300 Amiga 1000 and into the $800 Atari ST in 1985, then into the $700 Amiga 500 in 1987 and finally into the $189 SEGA Genesis in 1988/89. So it took almost a decade to reach consumer products below $500.

Nobody would have expected such a CPU in a $179 console in 1983 and Nintendo would have been crazy to plan with that in 1980 - 1982.

So which other options than a modified 6502 did they have in the planning phase of the NES? The Z80 and the intel 8085 were't that much faster (and a lot more expensive).

I think you are agreeing with me while trying to sound disagreeable.  You state in this post that there were more expensive options, but they weren't a good value.  Do you know what usually is a good value?  The cheap option.  Nintendo chose to go with the "good value".  They didn't go with an expensive high end processor.


"Original plans called for an advanced 16-bit system which would function as a full-fledged computer with a keyboard and floppy disk drive, but Nintendo president Hiroshi Yamauchi rejected this and instead decided to go for a cheaper, more conventional cartridge-based game console as he believed that features such as keyboards and disks were intimidating to non-technophiles."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nintendo_Entertainment_System

If you do just a little research into the history of the NES, you'll see that they chose to go with a cheap system.  Famicom = Family computer.  Consoles didn't exist with the Famicom/NES was released in either Japan or the US.  The standard was the computer.  Yamauchi chose to go with a cheap "family computer".  It was far cheaper than other "computers" at the time. 

However, even if you compare the NES to the Atari 2600, it was considered cheap.  The Atari 2600 launched at a price of $199.  When the NES was first released as a basic set it was only $89.  Of course that was in 1987, but that was also the year that NES sales really got going.  (It had a limited US release in both 1985 and 1986.)

Any way you cut it the Famicom/NES was considered cheap.  It was cheap in Japan compared to other computers.  It was cheap in the US compared to the Amiga (it's main competitor).  It was cheap compared to the original Atari 2600 price once ROB and Gyromite were taken out (which didn't take long).  People at the time considered it cheap.



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mZuzek said:
Mnementh said:

I think that was a joke

Wait, who's Link?

You know Link... full name is Chain Link Fence, he's the main character of Metal Gear Survive!



Why not check me out on youtube and help me on the way to 2k subs over at www.youtube.com/stormcloudlive

Shadow1980 said:
Replicant said:

I know it's a little off topic, but I'd be very interested to see your yearly sales expectations for Switch, PS4 and XB1 from 2013-lifetime sales.

According to VGC, PS4 is something like below, right? What do you think it'll end up selling in 2018-lifetime sales?

2013: 4.4 M
2014: 14.6 M
2015: 17.5 M
2016: 17.6 M
2017: 20.1 M
2018: 17.5 M (shipment forecasting)
2019: ?
2020: ?
2021: ?
2022: ?
2023: ?
2024: ?
2025: ?

The actual official sales (as in actual sold to customers, not shipments) for the PS4 has been:

2013:   4.2M
2014: 14.3M
2015: 17.4M
2016: 17.5M
2017: 20.2M

So, VGC is overtracking it by a bit. In any case, the official sales figure for 2018 for the period of Jan. 1 to July 22 was 7.6M. After accounting for the different dates for Sony's mid-year updates in sell-through figures, the PS4 may be slightly up globally. Of course, we do have the holiday season coming up, and the results for Q4 are going to depend heavily on if the big Black Friday cuts produce as big of a boost as last year, and if supply constraints will be an issue during the holidays. Given that, I'd estimate that 2018 could end at anywhere from 19-20M for the PS4. And the PS4 can't keep selling at this rate forever. Despite the strong 2018 sales and a (very modest) upward revision in their forecast, Sony is still expecting overall fiscal year shipments to be down. This suggests that they're still expecting sales to decline, if not in the current quarter than at the very least in Q1 2019. The PS4 is already down YoY in Japan by 5.6% (and if you only count weeks 14-45, thus bypassing the Monster Hunter World boost, it's down 31% YoY), and is only up in the U.S. (and presumably also Europe) because of the short-term boosts provided by God of War and Spider-Man. I think this suggests that the the PS4 is cresting its peak, and if Sony's projections are on target I think we could see a fairly significant decline in Q1 next year. If I had to make a guess, then assuming a Nov. 2020 release for the PS5 I think we'll see similar to this for the PS4 for the next few years:

2018: 19.5M
2019: 15.5M
2020: 8M
2021: 4M
2022: 2M
2023-discontinuation: 1-2M

This would put the PS4 at close to 125M lifetime.

As for the Switch, I'm averse to making long-term estimates of yearly sales this early. It has yet to get a major price cut or hardware revision, and is still missing major titles like the first Gen VIII Pokemon game (due next year). Its hard to say whether its lifetime sales curve will more closely resemble, say, the 3DS or have a more typical sales curve for a Nintendo home console. However, my current lifetime sales guess assumes a maximum of 30M in the U.S., 25M in Europe, 20-25M in Japan, and 5-10M in other regions. I'm assuming it at least continues to outpace the 3DS by a healthy margin in the West, and does at most equal to the 3DS in Japan, depending on if it starts to catch up to it, which it has not so far. In fact, it's sold 45% fewer units so far this year in than what the 3DS sold in 2012, though to be fair the 3DS was absolutely killing it in Japan in 2012 (it was the third-best year for any system ever in Japan, following the DS's performances in 2006 & 2007) thanks in large part to the continued effects of the 2011 price drop as well as short-term boosts provided by the launches of the 3DS XL and Animal Crossing: New Leaf. The Switch meanwhile still costs substantially more than the 3DS did at this point in its life and has had no major hardware revisions. It still has the potential to catch up to the 3DS in Japan, but right now it's running a significant and growing LTD deficit that currently stands at about 2.7M units.

As for the XBO, there's really no way to make accurate guesses on worldwide sales without MS providing any information. The only truly accurate figures we have is for the U.S. & Japan, but those regions alone don't tell us the whole story. Assuming the U.S. represents 55-60% of the XBO's sales, it's probably sitting at most close to 40M units lifetime right now, maybe as few as 36M. At most, I see it selling roughly 60M units lifetime globally, though until MS gives us actual official shipment tallies we'll never know for sure.

Very informative.

I've discussed PS4 lifetime sales with some friends and I'll direct them to this post for info. You're an expert. Thanks!



Shadow1980 said:
Replicant said:

I know it's a little off topic, but I'd be very interested to see your yearly sales expectations for Switch, PS4 and XB1 from 2013-lifetime sales.

According to VGC, PS4 is something like below, right? What do you think it'll end up selling in 2018-lifetime sales?

2013: 4.4 M
2014: 14.6 M
2015: 17.5 M
2016: 17.6 M
2017: 20.1 M
2018: 17.5 M (shipment forecasting)
2019: ?
2020: ?
2021: ?
2022: ?
2023: ?
2024: ?
2025: ?

The actual official sales (as in actual sold to customers, not shipments) for the PS4 has been:

2013:   4.2M
2014: 14.3M
2015: 17.4M
2016: 17.5M
2017: 20.2M

So, VGC is overtracking it by a bit. In any case, the official sales figure for 2018 for the period of Jan. 1 to July 22 was 7.6M. After accounting for the different dates for Sony's mid-year updates in sell-through figures, the PS4 may be slightly up globally. 

It did 7.6 million in 29 weeks (~262k/week) this year while it did 7.0 million in 23 weeks last year (~304k/week).



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

Helloplite said:
Nintendo has slightly missed a great opportunity for switchs second year.

Let's see if they can turn it around otherwise no more than GBA levels - which will prompt them to return to the two systems strategy.

At end second year will be quite stronger than 1st year, its seems that Switch will not sell less than 18m in second year (even 20m is possible).

There is almost no chance they will go ever back to two separate platforms (actually they now have two platforms Switch and mobile), main reason why they went with one unified platform is because they couldn't effectively support any more two different platforms. So going back again to two different platforms after Switch that will be big succes in any case (80m+ LT is almost certain), doesnt make any sense, especially because game development is getting more complexing with bigger development teams how time is passing not less complexing or faster.

Also worth mentioning that games are selling great on Switch, much better than they did on Wii U and 3DS in same time period, so Nintendo already making very healthy profit with Switch despite still don't have big install base.



Switch just reached 30mil from Vgchart! In less than 2 years! Over 20% of the poll have completely underestimated it!



Pocky Lover Boy!