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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Wanna predict how much the Switch will sell?

 

How much do you think Switch will sell lifetime?

<10M 39 4.02%
 
10M-20M 125 12.87%
 
20M-30M 137 14.11%
 
30M-40M 143 14.73%
 
40M-50M 121 12.46%
 
50M-60M 120 12.36%
 
60M-70M 70 7.21%
 
70M-80M 60 6.18%
 
80M-100M 60 6.18%
 
> 100M 96 9.89%
 
Total:971

I'm actually surprised at the low expectations. I don't think the Switch is gonna sell more than the Wii or anything, but I mean let's be honest, less than 50 million is almost impossible at the rate it is going.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Wyrdness said:

That doesn't really absolve your earlier point because NES was still significantly more powerful than other consoles.

The NES was considered weak when it was released by the people who knew hardware.  First, the processor was really old (same as Atari 2600).  Secondly, the standard during the video game crash was the Commodore 64, which was 8-bit.  It was the weakest and therefore cheapest and most popular computer.  It's successor was the Amiga, 16-bit, released in 1985, the same year as the NES. 

The Amiga was supposed to trash the NES.  The conventional wisdom at the time was that consoles were a fad, and they were replaced by PC's.  Obviously that didn't happen.  The weak NES trounced all over the 16-bit Amiga instead.

I remember those days.  Every single kid on my block and the next 2 blocks had an NES.  Every kid but one.  This one kid showed me his Amiga.  He had Marble Madness running on it with very pretty graphics.  But I felt sorry for the kid.  The NES had so many better games, and his parents bought him an expensive Amiga instead.

The NES released in 1983 not 1985 the latter is the western release date.



Dango_ said:
I'm actually surprised at the low expectations. I don't think the Switch is gonna sell more than the Wii or anything, but I mean let's be honest, less than 50 million is almost impossible at the rate it is going.

Look at the dates of the first 100 posts or so in this thread.  We're revisiting a post from before the Switch's release.  As of now, yes, 50 million is low, but this thread shows the general expectation a couple months before the Switch released.



Switch: SW-3707-5131-3911
XBox: Kenjabish

Wyrdness said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

The NES was considered weak when it was released by the people who knew hardware.  First, the processor was really old (same as Atari 2600).  Secondly, the standard during the video game crash was the Commodore 64, which was 8-bit.  It was the weakest and therefore cheapest and most popular computer.  It's successor was the Amiga, 16-bit, released in 1985, the same year as the NES. 

The Amiga was supposed to trash the NES.  The conventional wisdom at the time was that consoles were a fad, and they were replaced by PC's.  Obviously that didn't happen.  The weak NES trounced all over the 16-bit Amiga instead.

I remember those days.  Every single kid on my block and the next 2 blocks had an NES.  Every kid but one.  This one kid showed me his Amiga.  He had Marble Madness running on it with very pretty graphics.  But I felt sorry for the kid.  The NES had so many better games, and his parents bought him an expensive Amiga instead.

The NES released in 1983 not 1985 the latter is the western release date.

I am talking about North America.  However, it was also cheap considered to computers in Japan.  You can't really compare it to other consoles in Japan, because it was the first.  Any way you cut it, the NES was designed to be a cheap system with the weakest hardware available.  They got decent looking graphics with their graphics chip, but they cheaped in every other way possible.  Their whole business model, even for the Famicom, was to go cheap.



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Wyrdness said:

The NES released in 1983 not 1985 the latter is the western release date.

I am talking about North America.  However, it was also cheap considered to computers in Japan.  You can't really compare it to other consoles in Japan, because it was the first.  Any way you cut it, the NES was designed to be a cheap system with the weakest hardware available.  They got decent looking graphics with their graphics chip, but they cheaped in every other way possible.  Their whole business model, even for the Famicom, was to go cheap.

Even later in European countries, the NES wasn't really widely available until about the time of the SNES release. Even in the countries where it WAS available, you could only get it in certain cities. While I am sure most gamers and future gamers alive at the time were vaguely aware of Nintendo (mostly through old arcade machines) and the NES, I'd say most people didn't know exactly what it was until about the time Super Mario Bros 3 was announced; very shortly after that, EVERYONE knew the name of Mario and our sword-wielding Hyrule hero Zelda =D



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Wyrdness said:

The NES released in 1983 not 1985 the latter is the western release date.

I am talking about North America.  However, it was also cheap considered to computers in Japan.  You can't really compare it to other consoles in Japan, because it was the first.  Any way you cut it, the NES was designed to be a cheap system with the weakest hardware available.  They got decent looking graphics with their graphics chip, but they cheaped in every other way possible.  Their whole business model, even for the Famicom, was to go cheap.

You can talk about US as much as you want it still doesn't detract from the original point you replied to NES on its release in 1983 was significantly powerful so it doesn't fall into the under powered argument you initially made.



Wyrdness said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I am talking about North America.  However, it was also cheap considered to computers in Japan.  You can't really compare it to other consoles in Japan, because it was the first.  Any way you cut it, the NES was designed to be a cheap system with the weakest hardware available.  They got decent looking graphics with their graphics chip, but they cheaped in every other way possible.  Their whole business model, even for the Famicom, was to go cheap.

You can talk about US as much as you want it still doesn't detract from the original point you replied to NES on its release in 1983 was significantly powerful so it doesn't fall into the under powered argument you initially made.

Did you even read my post that you just quoted?  I was talking about how it was weak in Japan.



Dango_ said:
I'm actually surprised at the low expectations. I don't think the Switch is gonna sell more than the Wii or anything, but I mean let's be honest, less than 50 million is almost impossible at the rate it is going.

Sure, but be aware that this thread and the original round of votes are from before the system launched. :)



The_Liquid_Laser said:
Wyrdness said:

You can talk about US as much as you want it still doesn't detract from the original point you replied to NES on its release in 1983 was significantly powerful so it doesn't fall into the under powered argument you initially made.

Did you even read my post that you just quoted?  I was talking about how it was weak in Japan.

Your post only talked about it being cheap not about specs, performance and so on mean while the original person you responded to had an actual comparison shot of two products on two platforms of the time.



Jumpin said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I am talking about North America.  However, it was also cheap considered to computers in Japan.  You can't really compare it to other consoles in Japan, because it was the first.  Any way you cut it, the NES was designed to be a cheap system with the weakest hardware available.  They got decent looking graphics with their graphics chip, but they cheaped in every other way possible.  Their whole business model, even for the Famicom, was to go cheap.

Even later in European countries, the NES wasn't really widely available until about the time of the SNES release. Even in the countries where it WAS available, you could only get it in certain cities. While I am sure most gamers and future gamers alive at the time were vaguely aware of Nintendo (mostly through old arcade machines) and the NES, I'd say most people didn't know exactly what it was until about the time Super Mario Bros 3 was announced; very shortly after that, EVERYONE knew the name of Mario and our sword-wielding Hyrule hero Zelda =D

That doesn't surprise me.  The impression I've always gotten from Europe is that they mostly consider the 16-bit consoles to be their "first generation".  I just got a retro game magazine from the UK where they voted Super Mario World #1 game of all time.  They did have a few NES games in their top 100 list, but the list as a whole seemed more slanted toward the 16-bit era.