I agree, I expect it to be revealed at E3.
Yup, pretty much this.
One letter, one number :
I think Stars will be either revealed in May (simliar to Omega Ruby and Alpha Sapphire) or at E3. Since Sun and Moon are only about 6 weeks old its way to soon to reveal the third version.
Just so yal know, no mainline Pokemon game has ever been first revealed at E3, heck I don't even think any spin-offs were either.
I see your logic and I agree with you for the most part, but a January Pokemon reveal has happened before AKA Pokemon X and Y. They announced that early Jan with their own Nintendo Direct. And it's very possible Nintendo would want to push Game Freak to reveal Pokemon Stars at a time Nintendo needs it the most. Granted if they revealed Stars at the Switch event I only expect the logos or something very small like a teaser trailer, but its fine if they wait until E3 to announce it.
Yeah but that was well after Black2/White2 released in Japan. Also I don't think they absolutely need Stars to be known asap (though this depends on the rest of their line-up). Zelda, Mario, and other games (Animal Crossing plox) should be enough to create excitement leading up to the launch, then a Stars announcement a month or two later will help keep the hype train going.