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Forums - Politics - Why Japan is on the decline

RolStoppable said:
vivster said:

Nevermind I can't wait for somebody else.

WTF are you talking about OP? In a time span of 9 years (2007 - 2016) Japanese dedicated gaming sales decreased by 50%. In the same time frame population remained stable. Birth rates decreased very slightly and average age increased very slightly.

And now you go around proclaiming these slight single percentage changes in demographics cause a 50% drop?

You are on to something.

If a bigger timeframe is taken into account (all data that is available), then dedicated gaming in Japan had peaked in the late '90s and was already in decline in the console generation of the early 2000s. But then it spiked to a new all-time high in 2007. So what exactly happened back then?

The simple answer is that games for dedicated gaming hardware targeted more age brackets than in the years before and a bigger pool of potential customers unsurprisingly can lead to higher sales. But this short period was followed by game developers going back to making the same games as usual, so the trajectory of the Japanese market also reverted back to that of a decline. The solution had been found, but then was abandoned.

Low birth rates and an aging population play a part, but the biggest cause for the decline is the lacking interest of game companies to make games that account for the shift in demographics that is underway since two decades. If it hadn't been for those games in the mid-2000s, the revenue chart that was posted in another thread would have shown a constant decline from 2000 through 2016.

So it is pretty much the industry itself to blame, which keeps on focusing on teens and young adults, mostly male.



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Mnementh said:
Besides the point vivster makes, that the demographics change much slower than the size of the industry - do you really present a projection 100 years into the future? Wow. If we assume every 20 years the children before have childs themself you look at the grandgrandgrandgrandchildren of todays children that are included in the statistics. Add to that uncertanty about migration that can change the demographics - and a 100 year projection is pretty much bullshit.

25 years is used as a generation in culture studies. In modern day west, this should be roughly 30 years, if not more.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

Japanese workforce is overworked I think. Not enough time for baby-making.



bdbdbd said:
WolfpackN64 said:

Indeed, and why would a lot of Japanese raise a family if they hardly have time for themselves?

It's really hard to change something like that, because the people to for your election campaign are going to be against it anyway.

I read a couple of years ago, that Japan has high divorce rate at retirement age, that would be caused by the time the Japanese spend time at work and therefore poeple don't know their partners - until they retire, spend time and get to know each other to notice they really don't like each other.

I think the majority of the Japanese would want to work a bit less. But I don't think the conservatives and their interests will do more then token geastures.



You're wrong. For the most part it's old people that's been dying, and those folks probably didn't play much games, which means the gaming business wouldn't be effected all that much by old folks dying off. A declining population won't be a problem for the Japanese gaming market for quite some time.



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I just think Japan's population grew to large for the area they inhabit. It is above its equilibrium point. At some point through tech advances or cultural shift birth rates will increase and population will recover or go high than it was before.

Importing a 3rd world population to replace your native less reproducing population is the wrong answer.



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WolfpackN64 said:
bdbdbd said:

It's really hard to change something like that, because the people to for your election campaign are going to be against it anyway.

I read a couple of years ago, that Japan has high divorce rate at retirement age, that would be caused by the time the Japanese spend time at work and therefore poeple don't know their partners - until they retire, spend time and get to know each other to notice they really don't like each other.

I think the majority of the Japanese would want to work a bit less. But I don't think the conservatives and their interests will do more then token geastures.

I noticed "fund" was left out of the election comment.

I think so too. They're not any different than the rest of us. I myself am a proponent of 6h/day, 30h/week, even as being happy with my own working hours.



Ei Kiinasti.

Eikä Japanisti.

Vaan pannaan jalalla koreasti.

 

Nintendo games sell only on Nintendo system.

bdbdbd said:
WolfpackN64 said:

Indeed, and why would a lot of Japanese raise a family if they hardly have time for themselves?

It's really hard to change something like that, because the people to for your election campaign are going to be against it anyway.

I read a couple of years ago, that Japan has high divorce rate at retirement age, that would be caused by the time the Japanese spend time at work and therefore poeple don't know their partners - until they retire, spend time and get to know each other to notice they really don't like each other.

In Japan, there is something called the retired husband syndrome, which is exactly what you describe here. It was coined by a Japanese doctor.



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Long term this could be significant, but short term the shift to mobile gaming seems far more prominent in regards to declining dedicated gaming hardware sales.



http://www.serkantoto.com/2016/08/17/japans-mobile-game-market-size/

Japan's Mobile Market Topped $9 billion a year ago, it is likely the largest mobile gaming market in the world (!). So there you go. It's not a massive mystery what's happening here.