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Forums - Sales - Declining sales in Japan

m0ney on 06 January 2017

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vivster on 06 January 2017
RolStoppable said:
vivster said:

Now it only has to sell.

Yup. And why wouldn't it when the price is no more than 25.000 yen and battery life is 4+ hours at moderate settings? From all the rumors that have been flying around, it looks like Nintendo will roll out more high-profile software in year 1 than for any of their previous systems.

If Nintendo messes up the hardware price and battery life, then Switch won't be able to properly succeed the 3DS, but it has to, because it's the successor to both the Wii U and 3DS. That's the biggest concern I have right now.

According to my credible sources, Japan's youth is dying very fast and will only leave old people who won't buy consoles.



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outlawauron on 06 January 2017
Leadified said:
I'm more surprised in the decline of software sales rather than hardware, wonder if the Switch can reverse or stabilize the decline.

It'll level it off, but remember that Switch has to make up for the absence of the platforms leaving. Switch will slow down 3DS sales a lot, and the Vita will likely be out of the market in 2018 (in a meaningful way at least). It'll just be Switch and PS4 to carry the market.

Edit: Also, does the above include digital revenue?



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maxleresistant on 06 January 2017
vivster said:
maxleresistant said:

Because the quality of games on mobile is utter shit.

it's not about the disappearance of hardware, but the disappearance of great games. But IMO, Nintendo hasn't been great in the last 10 years anyway.

If quality on mobile is shit, why is the dedicated console market losing customers?

Great games will always be there, no matter the platform. The bad quality of mobile games is vastly exaggerated. Just because the stores don't have very much quality control and let every shite through doesn't mean there aren't good games among them. In fact there are quite a few great games on mobile.

Where do you think the people with money and talent will go after the console market is over? Do you think they will just stop making games?

The biggest problem of the mobile market is actually how big it is. It seems counter intuitive but with such a big market comes a lot of competition. It's not justifiable to put a lot of money in a mobile game unless you know it will succeed. And at the moment the only guarantee for that is to already have a big name like Nintendo.

The mobile market is not inherently worse, it's just a different platform that adjusted to the customer's needs. Currently there are not many great AAA experiences on mobile because people go to console for those. But as soon as consoles begin to die the demand on mobile for these experiences will increase and some people will gladly step in that gap and try to satisfy the demand.

So yeah, the reason why people perceive the mobile market as bad is because they are not there demanding quality games. Mobile is bad because people don't want it to be good, all the while clinging to outdated closed platforms like consoles.

never said people will stop working. I agree that the money and people will move to mobile gaming, but to make shit games.

The mobile market is inherently worse, bad optimization, bad controls, nobody wants to pay, and even when you want to pay, you don't know if it's the right decision because there is so much shitty games that you are afraid you'll just throw away money. For example I bought GTA chinatown wars on Android, it's unplayable, even rockstar didn't give a shit enough to adjust the difficulty. I can't even past the first missions.

Also most popular mobile games aren't even games, they don't ask for player to be skilled, just to spend time tapping on the screen doing repetitive and addictive actions.

Even a very average console game is still a lot better than the best mobile game out there.

 

Now, that's the reality today, I hope things change, but right now the future of gaming is pretty bleak.



zorg1000 on 06 January 2017

Here are the individual hardware sales last year according to Media Create

3DS-2 million
PS4-1.8 million
Vita-850k
Wii U-290k
PS3-60k
XBO-10k

Total-5 million

Now lets find out how much Switch needs to sell in order to increase to YoY sales.

3DS will most likely see a pretty sizeable drop, lets say 1 million or about a 50% decline.

PS4 i could see being slightly up or slightly down so lets just say it remains flat at 1.8 million.

Vita will likely see a pretty notable drop, lets say to 500k, thats a 40% decline.

PS3+XBO+Wii U will continue to see a huge decline, lets say 100k combined.

That would give the existing devices a combined total of 3.4 million meaning Switch would need to sell about 1.6 million in order to keep total sales from declining next year.

Just for reference, 3DS sold over 4 million in its first year in Japan and with Switch rumored to having Splatoon, 3D Mario, Pokemon, Smash Bros, Dragon Quest & Monster Hunter all in year one i would have a hard time believing Switch cant hit 1.6 million comfortably.



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Platina on 06 January 2017

Hardware makes sense, though wonder if the Switch will make a big impact



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Soundwave on 06 January 2017

Dedicated hardware sales are down but mobile is way up.

I remember reading last year that Japan actually is the no.1 market for game apps in the world.

Having been to Japan I can pretty much say that lines up with what I saw there, I had to travel everywhere on subway because there was no point in taking a taxi (expensive). Just rows and rows of people quietly looking down at their phones.



Lawlight on 06 January 2017
vivster said:
Lawlight said:

Software and hardware targeting the west. PS4 released everywhere else before it released in Japan. The games target western gamers now too.

Sony games maybe, but the amount of Japanese games targeted at Japanese easily outweighs that. You know, the games that are completely disregarded by everyone for being just for the Japanese.

Sure but those aren't the big games like Final Fantasy or MGS.



pray4mojo on 06 January 2017

The iPhone is king of handhelds in Japan and that's not going to change even if Switch is a success. Times have changed. It's sad for most of us but, that's life.



Bc605 on 06 January 2017

It wouldn't matter what the next home console/handheld could do. The user base has moved onto the mobile market, where games like Fate/Grand Order, Cinderella Girls Starlight Stage, Granblue Fantasy, runs the market. People rather spend thousands on gacha than to buy games.

Nothing the companies can do will change that fact, its just a market change.