Here are the individual hardware sales last year according to Media Create
3DS-2 million
PS4-1.8 million
Vita-850k
Wii U-290k
PS3-60k
XBO-10k
Total-5 million
Now lets find out how much Switch needs to sell in order to increase to YoY sales.
3DS will most likely see a pretty sizeable drop, lets say 1 million or about a 50% decline.
PS4 i could see being slightly up or slightly down so lets just say it remains flat at 1.8 million.
Vita will likely see a pretty notable drop, lets say to 500k, thats a 40% decline.
PS3+XBO+Wii U will continue to see a huge decline, lets say 100k combined.
That would give the existing devices a combined total of 3.4 million meaning Switch would need to sell about 1.6 million in order to keep total sales from declining next year.
Just for reference, 3DS sold over 4 million in its first year in Japan and with Switch rumored to having Splatoon, 3D Mario, Pokemon, Smash Bros, Dragon Quest & Monster Hunter all in year one i would have a hard time believing Switch cant hit 1.6 million comfortably.
When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.
