Not really, I was going to break it down between generations but I know how you don't believe in generations and think they are completely arbitrary and you were the one who combined SNES+Gameboy, why would I seperate handhelds and consoles when not even you do? That makes no sense.

Break it down anyway you want, by generation, every 5 years, every 3 years or every year. Nintendo has been incredibly consistent with the expection of the DS/Wii era and a few poor years here and there.

Fine, use 1997/1998. FY97 & FY98 each saw Nintendo ship about 20 million units of Gameboy & Nintendo 64 hardware. About the same as SNES+GB in FY92 or GC+GBA in FY02 or 3DS+Wii U in FY12.

Seriously skew the numbers any way you want, 3DS+Wii U is down compared to the others but its not by some huge margin like you are pretending it is.

PS2 & PS3+PSP each sold about 160 million give or take a few million.

PS4+Vita is probably around 70 million right now.

Vita might manage an extra million or two but will PS4 sell an additional 90 million in order to keep the 160 million baseline? I dont think it will, maybe 130 million combined.

Edit: I also highly doubt Xbox One is coming anywhere close to the 85 million that Xbox 360 did, probably somewhere right between Xbox & 360 or 50 million.

So it appears like the Nintendo, Playstation & Xbox ecosystems are all going to be down.

Ohh man, I took the two Nintendo flagship consoles (home console and handheld) when the PS1 was released and compared them to the latest two Nintendo flagship consoles. I'm a monster. But you're right, I must be obfuscating the data to make it look worst than it actually, I guess. So I'll keep them seperate. I should have just talked about home consoles, but then you're comparing SNES lifetime sales (49 million) or N64 (33 million) and compare it to Wii U sales (14 million). Or maybe just handheld sales, but then we'd be comparing Gameboy sales (118 million) and 3DS sales (61 million).

Yeah... that's totally consistent!

Nah you're right. Nintendo should be aiming to about equal Wii U sales with the Nintendo Switch. They should be totally happy with that, right? They have nothing to worry about. They're doing just as well as they were when they were selling Super Nintendos and Gameboys. Of course they are. Also, really cute that you chose FY92 and FY12. Great job. Perhaps you didn't choose FY93 and FY2013 because that's 23.7 million units vs 17.5 million units. Oops.

Yeah, you make a good point. When the last PS4 comes off the line it will almost definitely be at the very worst the third highest selling console of all time, behind only the PS2 and PS1. That really should make them feel incredibly disappointed in their sales. Their glory days are long gone. Perhaps they should should make Crash Bandicoot games for the iPhone for $10 a pop instead.

I don't think the PS4 will reach 100m even with people jumping ship from Microsoft to Sony.

I respectfully disagree, but will admit that it hinges on Sony consistently bringing competitive price drops throughout the next couple years. It's done 50+million 3 years into it's life, with 21-22 million in the last year.,It should probably be Sony's flagship console for the next 2-3 years, and probably will be on sale for the next 6-7 years before Sony halts production. Even if it averages 12 million a year for the next 5 years that puts it at 110 million . Remember it's selling basically on par with the PS2 at this point.

If 3DS had sold 100 million units this gen like the PS4 is going to, I would agree this gen would be successful for Nintendo no matter how poorly the Wii U did, but Nintendo is going to come up well short of 100 million 3DS'.

No doubt the evaporation of the PSP market hurts Sony, but it was also only a one generation thing.

Otherwise their console sales have remained best in class by a large margin.

Also rightly or wrongly winning the console race is generally considered "more important", because the majority of software sales occur on the console side, not the portable side. So the company that wins the console race usually has the largest influence on the industry because that's where the majority of software is sold.

Yes, you are making it look worse than it is, a 80-90 million to 75-80 million decline is not a massive difference. Everybody knows their home consoles have declined with the exception of Wii, nobody will deny that but their overall hardware sales have remained relatively stable, gen over and year after year with 3DS+Wii U showing a modest decline.

What are you talking about? Nobody said they should aim for Wii U sales, you're just spouting nonsense at this point.

Sure, go ahead and use FY93 to FY13, its about a 25% decline, I just said in my last post 3DS+Wii U are down but its not a huge amount, its a modest decline from non-DS/Wii generations. Lets also compare FY94 (10 million) to FY14 (12 million) or FY95 (10 million) to FY15 (10 million).

Overall Nintendo of the last 5 years has seen a modest decline from the early 90s, the late 90s or the early 00s.

When do you think the PS5 will come out? It's not going to immediately stop selling when the ps5 lauches in... let's say Holiday 2019.

PS4 sales are probably around 55 million right now, It shouldn't have a problem selling at least another 40 million units over the next 34-35 months. Then it just has to sell another 5 million post ps5-launch to break the 100 million mark.

I really don't see it doing under 100 million at this point, 110 million would be my estimate currently. 

The only reason I can see it not hitting the 100 Million Mark is if PS5 launches Holiday 2018, but I think that's too soon.

You might be content with a 25% decline in overall sales over a 20 year period, but I guarantee you Nintendo's shareholders aren't.